How to utilize ecological capital utilization can have influence on the sustainable development. Taking the panel data from the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone covering 2006-2019 as an example in this article, we build an SDM model to examine the spatial relationship between environmental regulation, high-quality economic development and ecological capital. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) Environmental regulation, high-quality economic development and ecological capital utilization constitutes a system, also known as a "3E" system. (2) There is a significant spatial positive autocorrelation of the utilization of ecological capital. (3) Environmental regulation has a significant positive correlation with the supply and demand of ecological capital, flow utilization and stock occupancy. Environmental regulation inhibits the stock occupancy as well as capital supply and demand and flow utilization levels. High-quality economic development significantly increases capital demand, supply and flow utilization, as well as stock occupancy. (4) The interaction between environmental regulation and high-quality economic development promotes the change of capital supply and demand and flow utilization, and restrains the change trend of stock occupation. The conclusion is of a practical significance for us to have a better understanding of rational utilization of ecological resources.
The implementation of agricultural and rural modernization and innovation-driven development will effectively promote the long-term rural revitalization strategy so as to form a new situation for the development of China's agriculture and rural areas. Based on 86 county-level units in Gansu province, this paper constructs an agricultural and rural innovation-driven development evaluation index system, including 28 secondary indexes from three dimensions of innovation input, innovation guarantee, and innovation effect, and comprehensively evaluates the level of innovation development in rural areas. The results show that: (1) The overall innovation score of agriculture and rural areas in the study area is on the rise, but the growth rate is relatively low. The counties and districts with higher scores on comprehensive innovation ability are mainly concentrated in the eastern Hexi region, and those with lower scores are mainly in the southern ethnic regions. The level of innovation guarantee and innovation effect in Hexi is at the forefront of the province, and the level of innovation input in the southern ethnic regions is relatively low. (2) In the east-west direction, the innovation level of agriculture and rural areas is high in the west and low in the east. After 2013, the pattern of "high at both ends and low in the middle" has gradually formed in terms of the innovation level; in the north-south direction, the innovation level is high in the north and low in the south; in the southeast-northwest direction, it is high in the northwest and low in the southeast; in the southwest-northeast direction, it is high in the northeast and low in the southwest. The direction of the innovation index has not changed significantly, and it has a certain degree of lock-in in space. (3) The hot spots of innovation are concentrated in cities of Zhangye, Wuwei and Jinchang in the Hexi region, while the cold spots are mainly in the southern ethnic regions; the number of extremely cold spots and hot spots has decreased, and the gap between county-level agricultural and rural innovation is narrowing. (4) Multiple capital investment, agricultural economic development, natural geographical conditions and resource endowments, agricultural infrastructure allocation, agricultural development policies and other factors act on the spatio-temporal evolution of agricultural and rural innovation in Gansu through internal and external factors combined with both supply and demand of innovation-driven development.
Water, energy and food are indispensable resources in production and life. They are closely linked and mutually restricted, but their spatial distribution is not harmonious. Affected by climate change, economic and social change, the production and life are restricted. By sorting out the research contents, methods, scales of the WEF Nexus, the comprehensive conceptual framework of WEF Nexus and the transmission and expression of its risk relationship under the influence of changing environment are clarified. In the comprehensive conceptual framework, water, energy and food are regarded as the core of the WEF Nexus, and the influencing factors and potential risks of the water-energy-food system are regarded as the extension of the nexus. This paper points out that the definition of WEF Nexus has not been unified, and "connectionism" and "methodology" are two common explanations. The existing studies have assessed the status of the WEF Nexus, quantified the consumption relationship between resources and simulated it under different economic, social and climate scenarios. Status assessment includes safety, pressure, efficiency, resilience, and sustainability. There are some problems in the current research of WEF Nexus. Data missing and inconsistency hinder the calculation. Only one or several factors are considered in the application of the model, which can not fully describe the complexity of the system. Dynamic feedback research is limited by data and quantitative methods. Existing research is difficult to really apply to policy control. Therefore, monitoring, collection and integration of data, exploration of standardization model and establishment of multi-factor integration tool, system risk assessment and dynamic adjustment, resilience improvement, urban scale research and smart management are all the focus of attention in the development of the WEF Nexus.
Northwest China is the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt and an important gateway for China to open up to Central Asia and Europe. With the strategic support of the "Western Development", Northwest China has gone through four "Five-Year Plans" (2001-2020) planning and development. With the rapid economic and social development, it has also taken advantage of basic conditions such as water resources, energy and food resources. Based on the self-organization theory and the Haken model, this paper, taking Northwest China as an example, constructs a collaborative evaluation index system for the water-energy-food nexus. It examines the internal driving factors of the water-energy-food nexus in stages, and analyzes the spatial and temporal differentiation of the water-energy-food nexus synergy score. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2010, the sequence parameter of the coordinated development and evolution of the water-energy-food nexus in Northwest China was the water resources subsystem. This shows that the water resources subsystem dominates the development and evolution of the entire system in this stage, while the energy subsystem and the food subsystem are in a subordinate position. During this period, the water-energy-food nexus in the study area was still in an early stage of development and evolution. The development of the entire system relied on the support of a single element, and it had not yet formed a new and orderly structure driven by multiple elements. In terms of the spatial and temporal variations of synergy scores, there is a large gap between the five provinces in the region. The scores of Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu are higher than the average of the region, but the trend of change is relatively stable. The score in Ningxia is lower than the average in the region, and the trend of change is more tortuous. Xinjiang has the lowest synergy score, but its growth is the fastest, and the upward trend is the most obvious. (2) From 2011 to 2018, the sequence parameters of the coordinated development and evolution of the water-energy-food nexus in Northwest China are the water resources subsystem and the energy subsystem. The two together dominate the co-evolution of the water-energy-food nexus. The various elements of the water-energy-food nexus are more closely linked and the system is more stable. However, the food subsystem in this stage is still in a subordinate position. In terms of the temporal and spatial changes, the gap in synergy scores among the five provinces has been significantly reduced. Among them, the scores of Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu are still higher than the average of the Northwest, and the upward trend is more obvious than that in the first stage. Ningxia's synergy score gradually approaches the average of the five provinces. Although Xinjiang's synergy score is still the lowest, it has grown rapidly, and the gap with other provinces has narrowed significantly.
The socio-economic sphere is an indispensable part of Planetary Boundary (PB) sustainability evaluation system. In this context, this article makes a comprehensive review of theoretical and empirical literature regarding the existing socio-economic sphere. First, an evaluation has been made for a total of 15 socio-economic sphere dimensions proposed by the "Doughnut Theory". Second, based on the different types of research samples in terms of industrial, national, and cross-country aspects, we illustrated and analyzed one or more specific indicators corresponding to each dimension. Finally, we summarize the indicator threshold setting methods, including the continuation of conventions, the reference of experiences and the reference of typical samples. On the basis of summarizing and evaluating previous research results, this article takes 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China as samples for the first time, using statistical yearbooks and the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) data to compare the corresponding indicators in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" (2011-2015) official document as the threshold, so that the sustainability status of China's socio-economic sphere under the PB framework has been evaluated. The results show that China has reached the optimal state in terms of income level and job opportunities, and the poverty problem has been partially alleviated, but the performance of water resources and energy consumption is not good. In terms of the improvement of sustainability level, Southern China shows a trend of "from west to east", while Northern China presents a trend of "from north to south". The socio-economic sphere needs to be further improved in terms of content enrichment, theoretical deepening, and objective setting of thresholds.
Domestic tourism is an important carrier to release the potential of domestic demand, promote consumption upgrading and smooth the domestic major cycle. Strengthening the research on the evolution of spatial and temporal pattern of domestic tourism is of great significance to promote the coordinated and balanced development of regional tourism and boost the formation of the development pattern of domestic major circular economy. This paper selects the domestic tourism data of Jiangsu province in 2011, 2015 and 2019 at the county scale, and analyzes the spatial and temporal differentiation of domestic tourism development at the county level in the province. Based on the spatial distribution and growth, we discuss the spatial autocorrelation and spatial agglomeration of county-level domestic tourism development in Jiangsu. The spatial variogram and its fractal dimension analysis are used to analyze the spatial variation mechanism. Through the analysis, the following conclusions are obtained: (1) In the overall pattern, there are obvious spatial differences in the number of domestic tourists at the county scale, with Nanjing and Suzhou as the core; there is obvious spatial autocorrelation in the number of domestic tourists in each county. However, the autocorrelation has a tendency to weaken over time. (2) The counties with accelerated growth rate in the two stages mainly exist in the northern part of Jiangsu province. Although the foundation is weak in the northern part of Jiangsu, its tourism development is obviously faster than that in Southern Jiangsu, and it has certain late-coming advantages. (3) The number of domestic tourists in the county units has maintained a stable cold and hot spot pattern. The hotspots are mainly concentrated in the southern part of Jiangsu, and Northern Jiangsu is mostly coldspots of tourism development. (4) The continuity of domestic tourism development pattern and spatial self-organization are increasing, the randomness in spatial differentiation is decreasing, and the spatial difference between Northern and Southern Jiangsu is the most obvious. (5) In terms of influencing factors, GDP has always been a decisive factor in the growth of regional tourism in the province, while the increase of highway mileage with convenient transportation and well-developed road network has little impact on the number of tourists. The impacts of population and A-level scenic spots on the number of tourists has been increasing significantly, which are negatively and positively correlated with the growth of tourist number, respectively.
Traditional villages are of high value in many aspects including history, culture, economy, tourism and science. It is extremely important to protect the spatial structure and cultural connotation of traditional villages. In this paper, six typical traditional villages in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River in China are taken as examples. Based on the theory of landscape genes, the landscape genetic analysis method is used to identify the landscape genes of traditional villages in the Xiangjiang River Basin, analyze the dominant material landscape genes and hidden genes of the traditional villages in the upper, middle and lower reaches, examine the variation characteristics of sexual intangible cultural genes, and summarize the genetic variation characteristics and differentiation rules of traditional villages in the Xiangjiang River Basin. The results show that: (1) Different from the local situation, the plane gene variation of traditional villages in the upper Xiangjiang River Basin focuses on the plane structure variation. The mutation of facade genes is different from the local area, and there are many cases of direct extinction after mutation; cultural genes have a strong sense of discomfort from external shocks, and there is a risk and trend of aggravating landscape genetic mutation. (2) The traditional villages in the middle reaches have a greater demand for changes in the facade genes, and the changes take place earlier, resulting in greater changes in the facade genes and the layout of streets and lanes in the plane genes, and the differences in the local characteristics after the mutation are significant. As for cultural genes, the ability to accept cultural variation and integration is strong, and the integration of variation into the local area is remarkable. (3) The traditional villages in the lower reaches have little variation in the plane genes with obvious morphological and layout characteristics; the characteristics of direct extinction after encountering mutations in the facade genes are obvious; in the cultural genes, in terms of the genes for family style beliefs, the variation is mainly in the local integration, and the genetic variation of customs and etiquette shows a trend of differentiation. The single-ethnic settlement family mainly contradicts the local characteristics, and the multi-ethnic settlement family mainly integrates the local characteristics.
Rurality is an important indicator to describe characteristics of rural areas. Its spatial and temporal distribution can effectively reflect the basic characteristics of rural development and transformation. Based on the measurement of rurality indexes in the years of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2017, this study mainly uses Exploratory Spatial data Analysis method (ESDA) to explore the spatio-temporal differentiation of the rurality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and analyzes the spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors by GWR model. The results show that: (1) Rurality indexes of counties in the study area tend to decline from 2000 to 2017, and the distribution characteristic of rurality indexes presents a pattern of "high in the central and western parts while low in the eastern part"; the counties with low level of rurality are mainly distributed near the urban agglomerations, provincial capitals and big cities, while the counties with high level of rurality are in the peripheral areas. (2) The rurality's high-high agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in the traditional agricultural regions in the central and western parts, and they tend to shrink gradually over time. The rurality's low-low agglomeration areas are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, Wuhan Megalopolis Area and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan City Group, and the spatial distribution is relatively stable over time. (3) Agricultural technology, government support, capital input and market regulation can promote rural development and transformation, among which agricultural technology plays the most important role. Both natural environment and location have the promoting and limiting effects. Due to different effects of influencing factors on different regions, rural development strategies should be formulated specifically for specific regions in the future.
Taking farmers in 84 villages in Xinhuang Dong autonomous county as examples, which were removed from the poverty list, we construct an evaluation system of rural households' poverty alleviation in Xinhuang county from four aspects, including infrastructure, education and medical care, farmers' income and industrial development, and studies the spatial pattern, types and optimization path of poverty elimination effects in the study area in 2019. Results show that: (1) There are obvious spatial differences of the farmer's poverty elimination effects: the average score of the effectiveness of infrastructure poverty alleviation was 2.53, characterized by "higher in the north, but lower in the south"; the average score of poverty alleviation in education and medical care was 2.65, showing a spatial pattern of "higher in the southeast, while lower in the northwest"; the average score of income poverty alleviation effect was 2.48, showing an alternating distribution of high, medium and low scores; the average score of industrial poverty alleviation effect was 4.23, with only a few villages with higher scores in the eastern and southern parts. (2) Three types of poverty alleviation were identified, namely, single factor leading poverty elimination, double-factor driven poverty elimination, multi-factor comprehensive poverty elimination, and they were divided into 13 subtypes including F factor leading poverty elimination, F-E factor driven poverty elimination, P-E-I comprehensive poverty elimination. In addition, effective strategies and paths for different types of poverty elimination were proposed to consolidate poverty eradication achievements.
Farmland abandonment is a land use change phenomenon that has long been prevalent in countries around the world. Based on data from a survey of 640 farming households in Fujian-Jiangxi-Hunan Mountainous Areas, regressions using the Tobit and IV-Tobit models show that for every 10% increase in non-farm employment of farming households, the proportion of cultivated land abandoned increases by 1.11%. Land transfer of small-scale farmers will increase their farmland abandonment scale. At this time, expanding the scale of operation will have little effect on alleviating farmland abandonment, and the land transfer will reduce the positive impact of non-agricultural employment on farmland abandonment. In addition, there are factors that have stable affect on farmland abandonment of farmers, namely, labor input, land input, agricultural machinery input, irrigation conditions, and the number of plots. Agricultural mechanization and land transfer are important initiatives to alleviate farmland abandonment in mountainous areas. While promoting the expansion of the scale of operations, the government should focus on increasing the size of plots, encouraging the exchange of labors for farming in villages, and improving the level of socialized agricultural machinery services, as well as broadening diversified income opportunities for farming households.
Rural migrant workers in China still have a considerable amount of contracted land. Using it efficiently and intensively and solving the separation of farmer and land is an essential basis for realizing agricultural modernization and ensuring food security. The paper uses data based on the disposal methods of contracted land of rural migrant workers from the National Survey on Health and Family Planning Dynamics of the Mobile Populations to analyze the factors influencing the disposal decisions of contracted land of rural migrant workers based on the differences in the disposal methods of contracted land in provincial-level areas and the level of their social inclusion in mobile destinations as the entry point. The study found that: (1) The transfer of contracted land in the central grain-producing regions has reached an absolute scale, but there is a considerable proportion of abandonment in the country, and the spatial pattern of explicit abandonment is "high in the southwest, but low in the northeast." Besides, the self-farming and hidden abandoned accumulation of characteristics are not obvious, with a certain degree of universality. (2) The increase in age, family income, and social inclusion will significantly reduce the willingness of rural migrant workers to cultivate their land and easily make a decision to dispose of contracted land such as cultivation and transfer to their friends and relatives. As a result, the probability of abandonment will also increase. (3) There is a particular coupling between institutional social inclusion and mobility destinations, with rural migrant workers to the eastern region tending to cultivate land themselves and those to the central and northeastern regions tending to transfer or abandon their land. The research perspective of social inclusion confirms the social security value of contracted land for rural migrant workers, and enhancing their social inclusion level can help the policy practice of separation of three rights. However, the current local land transfer policies are not sufficient to fully transform the willingness of rural migrant workers to transfer their management rights into farming and transferring by their friends and relatives. Rural migrant workers still have a high probability of abandoning their land explicitly or implicitly after their non-farm employment and life stabilization. As a result, the rural migrant workers' origin and destination governments should be considered in an integrated manner to lower the level of urban social services and reduce their livelihood risk concerns on the one hand, and actively guide them to transfer their contracted land to avoid wasting land resources due to abandonment on the other.
Identifying the vulnerability to return-to-poverty (or re-poverty), and comprehensively preventing and resolving the risk of re-poverty are the key points of poverty alleviation in the "post-poverty alleviation era". From the perspective of the integration of regional and individual scales, a comprehensive analysis framework is constructed. BP neural network method, entropy method and partial correlation analysis method are adapted to evaluate the vulnerability of re-poverty in three contiguous destitute areas of Liupan Mountains, Qinba Mountains and Dabie Mountains, as well as the influencing factors. Firstly, we find the vulnerability to re-poverty in the three contiguous destitute areas shows a spatial pattern of decreasing from west to east. Secondly, according to the classification order of the EEI, WSI, EAI and RVRI indexes, three typical counties of Gulang, Luanchuan and Xinxian show the characteristics of "high-high-low-high", "high-low-high-low" and "medium low-medium low-high-low", respectively. According to the classification order of LBI, LMI, LOI and IVRI indexes, however, the characteristics of these counties are "medium low-medium low-medium high-high", "medium high-high-medium low-low" and "medium high-medium low-medium low-medium low", respectively. Therefore, the evaluation results of both regional and individual vulnerability to re-poverty show an order of Gulang > Xinxian > Luanchuan. To be specific, Gulang is characterized by high vulnerability of re-poverty from both regional and individual perspectives. Xinxian has the advantage of the lowest ecological exposure, while the main problem is the low livelihood motivation. Although Luanchuan is relatively stable in poverty alleviation, the high ecological exposure is a major potential danger. Thirdly, for counties with high risk of re-poverty, high ecological exposure is the most significant characteristic, while for households with high risk, the most significant characteristic is insufficient livelihood motivation. The last finding shows that the dominant factors of regional vulnerability to re-poverty are natural environment endowment and economic development level, while the dominant factors of individual vulnerability to re-poverty are comprehensive quality of family labor force, family income, diversity of livelihood sources, health conditions of family members and marriage cost.
Pollution control is the difficulty and pain point of ecological protection and green development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), and pollution intensive industrial agglomeration is the severe inducement of environmental problems. Based on the mechanism of green development efficiency, this paper uses the weighted standard deviation ellipse method and other methods to identify the spatial-temporal evolution pattern of pollution intensive industrial agglomeration in 11 provincial-level regions of the YREB, and then explores its green economy effect. The results show that: the degree of pollution intensive industrial agglomeration in the YREB is lower than the national level, the industrial structure is transforming towards green and low-carbon development; the pollution intensive industrial agglomeration areas in the YREB are significantly different, the pollution production capacity in the middle and upstream areas is strong; the pollution intensive industrial agglomeration has an inhibitory effect on the green development capacity of the YREB in the short term, however, the pollution intensive industry cluster has a long-term green transformation mechanism, and the transition rate in the upper, middle and lower reaches rises gradually. The results can provide reference for promoting the industrial green agglomeration in the study area.
The basic premise of realizing the "trinity" protection of cultivated land in China is to explore the cooperative mechanism of "resource, social economy and environment" and its evolution of cultivated land use ecosystem. Based on the connotation of cultivated land use ecological efficiency, we, from the perspective of the "socioeconomy-resources-environment" composite system, build a cultivated land use evaluation index system of ecological efficiency, and use the SBM - Undesirable model, kernel density estimation and spatial convergence model to quantitatively depict the dynamic evolution of the cultivated land use ecological efficiency of the 71 cities (prefectures) in the Middle and Lower Yangtze Region. The results showed that: (1) From 2007 to 2018, the overall ecological efficiency of cultivated land utilization in the study area was at medium level, with obvious differences among the main grain producing areas. The efficiency loss was mainly caused by input non-efficiency induced by input redundancy, among which labor input redundancy was the highest. (2) From the perspective of time dimension, the overall ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in the main grain-producing areas in the Yangtze Region can be divided into two levels, the overall internal differences have been expanding, but gradually tend to be stable. The evolution of the internal differences among the main grain-producing areas is highly differentiated. Among them, the gap in the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in the major grain producing areas in Hubei and Jiangxi experienced a process of "expanding first and then narrowing". The internal gap in the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in the major grain producing areas in Anhui province was gradually widening, while that in Hunan and Jiangsu provinces was gradually narrowing. (3) From the perspective of space dimension, considering the spatial spillover effect, the main grain producing areas in the Yangtze Region as a whole show significant absolute β convergence, and the condition convergence rate is 1.01% under the joint influence of science and technology level, farmers' income level and irrigation water equality. However, the convergence trend of major grain-producing areas varies in different regions. Jiangsu has the highest absolute value of absolute β convergence coefficient, followed by Hunan province and Hubei, while Anhui and Jiangxi have no absolute β convergence, but Jiangxi has the most obvious β convergence trend, while Jiangsu has the pseudo convergence. Therefore, in order to improve the ecological efficiency of cultivated land in the main grain producing areas in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River, it is necessary to raise the awareness of low-carbon agricultural development and a coordination mechanism of the main grain producing areas, adjust measures to local conditions and implement policies in different regions.
On the basis of discussing the connotation of agro-product quality and safety, this paper constructs an index system of agro-product quantity safety and quality safety. Based on the methods of weight calculation and Ganger causality test, this paper analyzes the internal disturbance and coupling status of agro-product quality and safety by using China's time series data from 2005 to 2018, and examines the impact of agricultural factor input and regulation on the internal coordination degree of agro-product quality and safety. The results show that, firstly, there is a relatively unidirectional disturbance in agro-product quality and safety, and the internal system of agro-product quality and safety belongs to the unbalanced system in which the level of quantity safety is higher than that of quality safety; secondly, the internal coupling degree of agro-product quality and safety is high, but that of development coordination is not; thirdly, the chemical input and industrial input have a promoting effect on the internal coordinated development of agro-product quality and safety; fourthly, regulation has a positive impact on the internal coordination degree of agro-product quality and safety, and the positive impact of agricultural support and protection subsidies and the number of registrations of Agro-Product Geographical Indications is the largest. In the future, we should improve the input efficiency of technology input and other elements by optimizing the control efficiency.
Based on the 2010-2018 Chinese provincial panel data, a PVAR model is constructed to analyze the dynamic relationship between technological innovation, industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions efficiency at the national and regional levels. The results show that: (1) From the national level, technological innovation, industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions efficiency have strong self-coordination and mutual positive promotion; (2) From the regional level, from east to west, technological innovation, industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions efficiency of coordination degree decrease, the eastern region have basically achieved the coordinated development of the three variables, industrial structure upgrade and carbon emissions efficiency in the central region have not yet formed a two-way interaction, carbon emissions efficiency has insufficient impetus to improve industrial structure upgrade. In the western region, the level of technological innovation is low, the industrial structure is unreasonable, and the carbon emissions efficiency is low as well. There is no positive interaction among the three factors in Western China.
As the measurement of the society integration of immigrants, livelihood risk has become an important perspective for academics to study the livelihood and sustainable development of ecological migrants. In order to deeply analyze the regional and attribute differences of ecological migration livelihood risk and the logical model of strategies at the northern foot of the Qilian Mountains, this study, taking Wuwei city as an example, used the binary Logistic model to analyze the impact mechanism of livelihood risk on response strategy to providing support for formulating an effective livelihood risk prevention system and guarantee mechanism. The results showed that: (1) The attributes of rural households are mainly non-agricultural households, the proportion of pure rural households is less than 10%. The livelihood diversification index is only 1.74 and there are significant regional differences. (2) There are 67.44% of migrant peasants in Wuwei city facing the multiple risks, especially the economic risks. Large living expenses, the poor quality of cultivated land and new sub-sheds, and the return to poverty are the main risk elements. (3) The main risk response strategies of ecological migrants in the study area are borrowing money from relatives, getting bank loans, going out to work and reducing expenditures. The future livelihoods are more likely to expand breeding and maintain the status quo. The choices of ecological migrants risk response strategy in different counties are slightly different. (4) The policy, welfare, and economic risks significantly affected the ecological migrants' choices of coping strategies such as "loan to banks", "reducing expenses" and "going out to work". While their future livelihood are more restricted by their livelihood capital reserves, the impact of policy and economic risks is low. The type of migrant households has a significant impact on the choice of strategy, and the non-agricultural part-time households are more inclined to choose the strategy of "getting bank loans" and "expanding breeding".
Based on the water-thermal product index and the reanalysis data for the period 1931-2019 obtained from Climatic Research Unit (CRU), we examined the matching spatial characteristics and temporal variation trends of the water and thermal resources in Central Asia on a time scale by using the method of multi-time series analysis, and explored the sensitive climatic factors of water-thermal matching combined with the sensitivity coefficient. The results show that: (1) the water and thermal matching conditions in Central Asia are relative merits in space, and the dominant regions are mostly distributed at high latitudes and on alpine plateaus, while the regions with poor water-thermal matching resources are distributed in the southern deserts. Most of advantageous areas coincide with the high-value area of precipitation, low-value area of potential evapotranspiration and low-value area of air temperature in the same period, and the annual change of water-thermal product index is not obvious or shows an increasing trend. The disadvantageous areas are mostly the high-value area of potential evapotranspiration and the high-value area of air temperature in the same period, while the low-value area of precipitation has a decrease of water-thermal product index and a large inter-annual variation. (2) There were seasonal differences in the matching of water-thermal resources in Central Asia, characterized by best spring and autumn, better winter, and worst summer. On the annual scale, 1931-1974, the matching conditions of water and heat presented an upward trend; 1974-2000, the water and thermal matching conditions fluctuated; 2000-2019, the water and thermal matching condition decreased, and the water-thermal matching condition mutation was observed in periods of 1971-1980, 1981-1990, and 1990-2000. The variation trend of water - thermal matching in spring, summer and autumn was roughly consistent with the inter-annual trend, while the fluctuation range in winter was relatively small. (3) The sensitivity analysis showed that mean temperature was sensitive to the water-thermal matching conditions in spring, summer and annual scale, and precipitation in winter and autumn. In the high-latitude mountains of the study area, precipitation was dominant in the sensitive climate factors. In the southern part of Central Asia, the sensitivity of precipitation factors decreases while that of mean temperature factors increases. The absolute value of mean temperature sensitivity in the northern part of the region will be lower than that in the southern part; the high-latitude mountains were sensitive to the extreme temperature variation.
