在越发紧密关联的全球化世界中,如何实现可持续发展日益需要跨系统思维和超区域政策。这首先要求致力于可持续发展研究的学科要提升自身对跨区域资源环境问题的洞察力,因此就有必要推动地理学传统研究框架的适应性创新和变革。远程耦合作为聚焦于“远距离人类与自然耦合系统之间社会经济与环境相互作用”的理论框架,有极大的潜力和优势来促进这一理论创新进程。为了缩小国内外在远程耦合领域的研究差距,论文基于文献研究和笔者对远程耦合框架的理解,从远程耦合的理论建构、经验证据、重点研究领域和研究方法4个方面介绍了该理论框架及其应用进展,并提出3个方面的展望来激发新的研究。综述表明,由于远距离人类活动不断增长以及大尺度自然过程与人类活动的相互作用,在远程连接、全球化和城市化维度上均存在大量远程耦合的经验证据;目前学术界对远程耦合框架的应用主要集中于生态系统服务、远程耦合的社会经济和环境影响及土地变化科学3个方面;同时得益于理论操作化的进展,目前开展远程耦合研究已具备较好的方法支持。基于此,论文认为,为应对新兴的现实科学命题,基于远程耦合框架的地理学研究应当在人地关系网络系统的理论创新、远程耦合动力机制和远程耦合的调控工具集3个方面实现突破。

Achieving sustainable development in an increasingly interconnected globalized world requires cross-system thinking and more integrated regional policy. First, it requires disciplines devoted to sustainable development research to improve their insights into trans-regional resource and environmental issues. Accordingly, it is necessary to promote the adaptive innovation and transformation of the traditional research framework of geography. Telecoupling, as a theoretical framework focusing on socioeconomic and environmental interactions among coupled human and natural systems over distances, has great potential and advantages to facilitate the process of theoretical innovation. In order to narrow the gap between Chinese and international research in the field of telecoupling, we introduce the telecoupling framework and its application progress from theoretical construction, empirical evidence, key research areas, and research methods based on literature review, document analysis, and our own understanding of telecoupling, and further give some suggests. The review shows that there is a large amount of empirical evidence of telecoupling in the dimensions of teleconnection, globalization, and urbanization due to the continuous growth of long-distance human activities and their interaction with large-scale natural processes. Currently, the application of the telecoupling framework in academia mainly focuses on three aspects: ecosystem services, the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of telecoupling, and land change science. Due to the progress in operationalizing the theories, current telecoupling research has been well supported methodologically. We further argue that geographical research based on the telecoupling framework should make breakthroughs in the theoretical innovation of Human-Earth relationship network system, telecoupling mechanism, and telecoupling regulatory tool sets, so that scientific research can keep up with the latest trends and solve the emerging real world problems.

20世纪以来,经地理学者不断探索和努力,地理学已经形成了其特有的学科特征。首先从认知方法和思维角度,阐述了新时代地理学所面临的困境;从新技术、新秩序、新数据、新方法以及新动因等方面,诠释了地理学的新时代特征。其次,针对地理区域性的新内涵和地理综合性研究所需的新方法,提出了复杂性研究是地理学成功的新路径,并认为复杂性是地理学研究的第三特征。再次,重点讨论了地理研究存在的空间复杂格局、时间复杂过程和时空复杂机制,进而解释了地理复杂系统的基本概念,并就地理复杂系统的核心问题提供了相应的研究方法。最后,提出了新时代地理学面临的新挑战和新要求。

Since the 20th century, geography came into being with distinctive disciplinary characteristics by sustained effort of geographers. This paper puts forward predicament from cognitive and thought in the new era, and depicts new geographic characteristics from five aspects: new technology, new orders, new data, new approaches and new driving factors. According to new content of geo-regionality and new approaches of geo-comprehensiveness, the paper proposes that complexity research would be a successful new path in geography, and the complexity would be the third characteristic of geography. Then, the paper details some complex spatial patterns, complex time processes and complex spatio-temporal mechanisms in geography research. Based on the concept of a geographic complex system, this paper presents core issues and corresponding complex research tools. Finally, the paper puts forward new challenges and new requirements for geography in the new era.

早期地理学关于人地关系的研究多基于本土思维,秉持“一方水土养育一方人”的理念。在严重依赖自然资源的传统农业社会,这一理念及其指导下的区域地理研究和区域管理实践,对于促进人与自然的协调发展起到积极作用。随着系统开放程度的增加,规模不等、层级不同的地域系统形成了一个相互依赖、相互耦合的地理网络。每个地域都是这个网络上的节点,地域问题的产生与解决与网络上其他节点有密切关联、与地域系统内外因素紧密相关,地域外因素有时甚至起主导作用。虚拟水、生态足迹、贸易隐含碳排放、资源纽带关系及人地关系远程耦合等概念和方法的提出,标志着人地关系研究范式从本土思维向全球网络化思维转型。依照新的理念和研究范式,传统的本土思维范式及建立在此范式上的相关研究主题（如区域承载力）应该受到重新审视。

The early studies on the relationships between man and land in geography mostly focused on local regions and held the idea that "the land and water resources in a region feed the person in the region". In the traditional agricultural society, which relies heavily on natural resources, the idea, and regional geographic research and management practice under its guidance play a positive role in promoting the development between man and nature, and sustainable resource use. With the continuous increase in openness of man and land system resulted from development of science and technology and transport improvement, regional systems on different scales and at different economic development levels have formed an interdependent and coupled geographic network. Every region becomes a node in this network, and the formation and solution of regional problems are closely related to other nodes in the network, and are related to internal and external factors of the regional system. In some cases, external factors even play a more important role. The introduction of some concepts and methods marks the paradigm transformation of man-land relationship research from local thinking paradigm to global networked thinking paradigm, such as virtual water, ecological footprint, carbon emissions due to goods trade, resource link and tele-coupling of man-land relationship. This study discusses the paradigm transformation from three aspects: the evolution characteristics of man-land system, the changes of thinking paradigm and study methods in man-land relationships, and the realization paths and practical significances of the transformation of thinking paradigm in man-land relationship research. According to new ideas and thinking paradigms, traditional local thinking modes and related research themes such as regional carrying capacity can not fully express the new characteristics of man-land relationships. At present, studies related to regional carrying capacity have become an important issue in land use planning and urban planning in China. In the development of land use planning at different levels, "evaluation of resource and environmental carrying capacity" has become the premise and basis of planning. In the implementation of this concept, we usually simply uses population size as the control index. In the context of an increasingly open system, studies in the carrying capacity of resources and environment may be re-examined. This is especially necessary in smaller scale regional systems (e.g., at a county level).

Telecoupled flows of people, organisms, goods, information, and energy are expanding across the globe. Causes are integral components of the telecoupling framework, yet the rigor with which they have been identified and evaluated to date is unknown. We address this knowledge gap by systematically reviewing causal attribution in the telecoupling literature (n = 89 studies) and developing a standardized causal terminology and typology for consistent use in telecoupling research. Causes are defined based on six criteria: sector (e.g., environmental, economic), system of origin (i.e., sending, receiving, spillover), agent, distance, response time (i.e., time lapse between cause and effect), and direction (i.e., producing positive or negative effects). Using case studies from the telecoupling literature, we demonstrate the need to enhance the rigor of telecoupling causal attribution by combining qualitative and quantitative methods via process-tracing, counterfactual analysis, and related approaches. Rigorous qualitative-quantitative causal attribution is critical for accurately assessing the social-ecological causes and consequences of telecouplings and thereby identifying leverage points for informed management and governance of telecoupled systems.

在全球一体化进程不断加深的背景下,国家与地区之间的联系日益紧密,产生了一系列跨国家、跨地区、多尺度的社会—经济—环境影响,远程耦合（Telecoupling,社会、经济、环境的远距离相互作用）科学概念和综合框架的提出为解决上述问题提供了新方法和新途径。为更好促进远程耦合综合框架的正确使用和规范推广,本文系统解析了远程耦合综合框架,厘清各组成部分的定义和功能,梳理了框架的应用现状;通过对3个中国典型案例的阐释,展示了远程耦合综合框架的使用方法、结果分析及由此得出的科学意义和政策价值;最后描述了远程耦合综合框架使用中需要重点关注的问题,并对其应用前景进行了展望。远程耦合综合框架的推广应用有助于以跨国家、跨地区、多尺度的视角,重新审视多个人类与自然耦合系统的相互作用,揭示隐藏的远距离地理空间作用的科学价值,服务于有关政策的制定和实施,促进全球社会、经济、环境的可持续发展。

城镇化与生态环境耦合系统是人地关系地域系统的重要一环,面对新时代全球尺度的远程联系、时空压缩与社会经济重构,传统的研究框架急需转型和升级。借鉴人地关系地域系统、远程耦合和星球城市化等理论,从复杂性科学视角出发,首先解析了城镇化与生态环境耦合系统的内涵,进而从空间、时间、表象和组织四个维度,提出了一个解释城镇化与生态环境耦合机理的分析框架——“耦合魔方（CHNC）”,并论述了其概念、内涵、演化规律和分析框架：魔方中的系统与系统、系统与要素、要素与要素间通过各种“耦合线”相互联系与作用,形成一个彼此嵌套、相互联系、对立统一的有机整体;魔方的旋转代表了不同地域间城镇化与生态环境的时空非线性耦合作用,系统通过不断能量交换,产生临界相变与整体涌现性,长期处于有序与无序之间的中间状态;“耦合魔方”包括近远程耦合、近远期耦合、组内间耦合和显隐性耦合,共四个维度,八种类型。重点剖析了远程、远期、组间和隐性耦合的科学内涵、研究方法与典型案例,并形成更具普遍意义的人地关系耦合矩阵。“耦合魔方”为揭示城镇化与生态环境耦合系统的演化和机理提供一个更加全面系统的跨学科研究范式,拓展了人地系统耦合研究的分析维度,为面向人类福祉的区域可持续发展政策制定提供科学支撑。

特大城市群地区是国家经济发展的战略核心区和国家新型城镇化的主体区，担当着世界经济重心转移承载地的历史重任，但在发展过程中面临着日益严重的资源与生态环境的胁迫压力。开展特大城市群地区城镇化与生态环境交互耦合效应的研究，是未来10 年地球系统科学研究的前沿领域和高优先研究主题。本文系统解析了特大城市群地区城镇化与生态环境交互耦合效应的基本理论框架。首先从理论上分析了特大城市群系统各自然要素和人文要素交互作用的非线性耦合关系及耦合特征，科学辨识近远程主控要素作用下城市群系统内外部各要素相互作用的胁迫强度、近远程耦合机理与规律，总结特大城市群地区城镇化与生态环境交互耦合圈理论，进一步构建多要素—多尺度—多情景—多模块—多智能体集成的时空耦合动力学模型，研发特大城市群地区可持续发展优化智能调控决策支持系统；其次从方法上将特大城市群地区视为一个开放的复杂巨系统，在建立同一标准化共享数据库的基础上，采用多要素—多目标—多模型—多情景环境下的城镇化与生态环境交互耦合集成技术方法、大数据支持下的城镇化与生态环境交互耦合技术方法，构建多尺度—多技术—多智能体集成的城镇化与生态环境交互耦合技术框架，按照分析时空演变特征—寻求主控要素—辨识耦合关系—揭示胁迫机制—发现耦合规律—筛选调控变量—求解临界阈值—进行调控试验—完成情景模拟—提出优化方案—完成情景模拟—提出优化方案—实现国家目标这样一条技术路径，提出解决问题的整体优化方案。本文旨在为特大城市群地区由问题集中区转为可持续发展区提供理论指导和方法支撑。

Mega- urban agglomerations in China play a vital role in both national economic development strategies and national new-type urbanization, and undertake important historical responsibility with the world economic center transfer to China. However, they suffer a series of increasingly serious eco- environmental problems in the process of development. Thus,studies on the interactive coupled effects between urbanization and eco-environment in megaurban agglomerations are the frontier areas and high priority tasks in the earth system science for the future ten years. This paper analyses the basic theory frame of the interactive coupled effects between urbanization and eco- environment in mega- urban agglomerations systematically. In theoretical aspect, based on the nonlinear relationship and coupling characteristics of the natural and human elements in mega- urban agglomerations system, we could estimate the interactive coercing intensity, nearcoupling and telecoupling mechanism ofthe inside and outside mega-urban agglomerations system after scientific identification of the key elements, and then form the basic interactive coupling theory. Moreover, we could build a spatio- temporal coupling dynamic model, which is integrated with multi- elements, multiscales,multi-scenarios, multi-modules and multi-agents. The model will be used to develop the intelligent decision support system for urban agglomeration sustainable development. In methodology aspect, the mega- urban agglomeration is regarded as an open complex giantsystem. We should establish the standardized shared database for exploring the interactive coupled effects between urbanization and eco- environment. Then using new technology for analyzing big data and the integration methods incorporating of multi- elements, multi- scales,multi- targets, multi- agents, multi- scenarios and multi- modules, we can build a methodology framework to analyze the complex interaction coupling between urbanization and ecoenvironment. The technical route is to analyze spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, identifythe key elements, interpret coupling relationship, reveal the mechanism of coercing effect, find the general rules, filtrate the control variables, solve the critical thresholds, conduct regulation experiments, simulate different scenarios, propose an optimized schemes, and achieve national goals. Furthermore, we could put forward the overall optimization scheme. In general, this research could provide theoretical guidance and method support for the transformation and sustainable development in mega-urban agglomerations.

受城市化、地域功能分化、生产要素优化配置和交通网络快速扩展等因素影响,区域之间资源要素的流动已成为区域可持续发展的内在需求。在这种背景下,人类与地理环境互动模式的网络化就要求地理学研究采取全程耦合范式,即将区域内部、区域与周边区域、以及非邻接区域之间的人地互动同时纳入考虑。食物系统作为衔接乡村与城市、以及产地与全球消费市场的产业链和价值链,是开展人地系统近远程耦合研究的重要切入点。基于这种认识,本文在论证理论研究内在依据及外在条件的基础上,将食物系统的构成要素与远程耦合框架相结合,建立“城市化驱动下食物系统近远程耦合的理论框架”并论述该理论框架的具体内涵。以拓展理论框架中的前沿领域为基本导向并结合国家重大战略需求,本文进一步明确了食物系统耦合研究的基本问题和4个亟待突破的优先研究方向。其中,基本问题是食物域的格局特征、时空演化及其动力机制。4个优先方向则包括：耦合社会经济文化变迁与生物地球化学循环的供应链网络人地互动研究;食物系统近远程耦合效应及其调控策略研究;基于食物系统的城乡融合与长效脱贫机制研究;以及面向公共卫生安全的食物系统跨区域、多层次治理研究。本文最后设计了食物系统耦合研究的一般技术路径,研究结果可为进一步的案例实证提供理论支撑和研究思路参考。

Driven by urbanization, regional functional differentiation, optimal allocation of production factors, and rapid expansion of transportation networks, the flow of resources between regions has become a key impetus for regional sustainable development. Hence, the interaction networking between human beings and their natural environment requires a meta-coupling paradigm research from a geographic perspective, that is, to consider the human-nature interactions within the region, between the region and surrounding regions, and between non-adjacent regions simultaneously. As an industrial chain and value chain that connects rural areas and cities, as well as production areas and global consumer markets, the research on food system couplings is a good and important entry point for a better understanding the interactions and networking in the human-earth system. With this perspective in mind and aiming at demonstrating the theoretical study based on internal basis and external conditions, this paper combines the food system components with the tele-coupling framework to establish a "theoretical framework of local and tele-coupling of food systems driven by urbanization", and discusses the specific connotation of the theoretical framework. Taking the extension of the frontier fields in the theoretical framework as the basic guide and combining China's major strategic needs, the paper further identifies the basic issues for food system coupling research and four priority research directions that need to be breakthrough. Among them, the pattern characteristics, the spatio-temporal evolution and its driving mechanism of foodshed are the basic issues, while the four research priorities include: human-nature interaction research of the supply chain network coupling socio-economic and cultural changes and biogeochemical cycles; effects of the local and tele-coupling of food system and its regulatory strategies; the mechanism of urban-rural integration and long-term poverty alleviation based on food system; and cross-regional multi-level governance of food systems for public health and food security. A general technical methodology of the food system coupling research is designed at the end of the paper. The conceptual framework and methodology in this paper can provide theoretical guideline and enlightenment for further food system coupling research and other similar studies.

运用复杂网络分析方法,采用2000—2016年国际贸易关系数据构建了全球稻米贸易网络,分析了全球稻米网络格局演化特征及中国在全球稻米贸易格局中的角色变化。研究发现：（1）2000—2016年全球稻米贸易网络规模不断扩大、相互依赖性加深,网络结构的异质性特征明显,核心节点对网络稳定性有控制作用;（2）印度、泰国、中国、越南、巴基斯坦、美国是网络核心节点,东南亚、南亚、东亚地区保持着全球稻米贸易核心区地位;（3）全球稻米贸易网络划分为六个主要组团,地理临近是组团格局形成的重要因素,组团内部呈现出口国主导、进口国跟随的特征;（4）中国作为全球最大的稻米进口国家,进口来源相对稳定。建议今后我国继续挖掘全球稻米贸易潜力,充分发挥贸易网络的优势,在风险可控前提下,增加进口、优化出口,提高贸易网络的复杂性,从而提升安全保障能力。

论文基于复杂网络视角,选择谷物、油料、纤维、糖料、果蔬、肉类6大类57种农产品,用1986—2013年间的贸易数据,构建全球农产品贸易网络,定量分析了这个复杂网络的特征和演化趋势。结果表明：1）1986—2013年,全球农产品贸易总量增加了2.26倍,其中油料作物增加幅度最大,增加了4.97倍。参与到全球农产品贸易网络中的国家（地区）逐年增多。2）拟合节点累积度分布的幂函数曲线,表明全球农产品贸易节点度分布具有不均匀性,节点度小的节点数量多,节点度大的节点数量少,满足幂律分布。“枢纽”节点不断成长。3）全球农产品贸易网络密度上升、平均路径长度下降、多元化趋势加强、网络结构复杂化等特征日益突出。4）我国农产品进口来源国（地区）集中程度较高,农产品进口潜在风险较大。一方面要进一步扩大开放,拓展进口来源国（地区）的数量,更好地利用国际资源;另一方面强化农业基础,提高农业综合生产能力,防范风险,保障粮食安全。

This paper analyzes global agriculture trade and its evolution with complex network methods. Using international trade data during 1986-2013, we selected 57 kinds of agricultural products belonging to six major categories of cereals, oil crops, sugars, fibers, fruits, vegetables and meats, and constructed trade network of international agricultural products at different periods. The evolution trend and current situation of global agriculture trade were quantitatively analyzed. The results show that total trade of international agricultural products increased 2.26 times during 1986-2013. Oil crops had the maximum growth which increased 4.97 times. The number of global agricultural import and export countries involved in agricultural trade network was increasing. By fitting the cumulative distribution function curve of nodes’ degree in the trade network, we can find that the distribution of nodes’ degree satisfies power-law distribution that a majority of nodes have small degree while only a few nodes have large degree. The hub nodes continuously grew up. The density of global agricultural trade network rose while the average path length declined, and the trend of diversification strengthened. The agricultural products import of China depended on a few countries and thus there is potential risk of agricultural products import. On one hand, our country should enlarge opening to extend the source of import and make full use of international resources; on the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen the agricultural foundation and improve the comprehensive production capacity so that we can prevent risks and ensure national food security more efficiently.

基于复杂网络分析方法,构建了小麦、水稻、玉米三大主粮的全球粮食贸易网络,解析了网络格局的总体特征及其变化态势,定量评估了全球粮食贸易网络格局影响因素。研究发现：全球粮食贸易已经成为一个复杂有序、相互依赖的网络系统,网络规模不断增加,连同性和紧密度不断加强;全球粮食贸易网络节点呈现非均衡结构特征,高强度和高节点度国家在网络中具有主导作用,呈现出口国主导的网络结构特征;经济社会发展差异性、贸易政策的一致性和语言文化邻近性对粮食贸易网络影响显著,经济社会发展差异推动贸易网络联系更加紧密且多元化,贸易政策的一致性促进贸易网络更加持续和稳健。建议中国继续实施更加多元化、多边化的粮食贸易政策,提升中国在世界粮食网络节点的中心性特征,充分利用国内国际两个市场,融入全球粮食贸易网络体系,积极推动构建全球粮食安全命运共同体。

基于2000—2019年全球猪肉贸易数据,采用复杂网络分析方法,研究了全球猪肉贸易网络格局演变及中国猪肉贸易网络特征,并进一步探讨了中国扩大猪肉进口的潜在贸易伙伴选择问题。研究结果表明：过去近20年来,全球猪肉贸易网络核心国相对固定,猪肉贸易网络呈“碎片化”特征。目前中国已经成为全球第一大猪肉进口国,且进口呈现北美、西欧、南美“三足鼎立”的来源格局。未来中国扩大猪肉进口,潜在的贸易伙伴可选范围比较广泛。一方面可以继续巩固和深化同德国、西班牙、美国、巴西等传统贸易伙伴之间的合作关系,另一方面也可以积极拓展朋友圈,增加从意大利、比利时等其他出口国及泰国、越南等周边国家的进口,以打造更加多元高效的猪肉进口网络。

Technology, transportation and global appetites have transformed trade relationships between near and distant countries. The impact of distant food demand on local agricultural production and trade has attracted considerable scientific scrutiny, yet little is known about how distant trade affects trade relationships and production between adjacent countries. In this paper, we explore this important issue by examining international food trade and agriculture production, which represent how distant places are connected through trade networks. By analyzing patterns of soybean, corn and wheat trading between 1991–2016 under the framework of metacoupling (human-nature interactions within, as well as between adjacent and distant systems), this study provides new insights into the spatio-temporal dynamics of trade flows. Results reveal that telecoupled (between distant countries) trade interacts with the geo-political landscape to enhance or offset intracoupled (within country) production and pericoupled (between neighboring countries) trade. Evidence from the literature and the results of autoregressive integrated moving average models indicate that when restrictions are placed on distant export routes, pericoupled trade increased. The extent to which the telecoupled food trade affected the pericoupled trade and intracoupled processes holds implications for the true extent of production driven by distant demands.

论文基于全球238个国家和地区的面板数据,研究1988—2018年全球粮食贸易网络的空间格局演变,并引入零膨胀负二项回归构建粮食贸易的引力模型以解析其影响因素,以期揭示全球粮食贸易的驱动因素。结果表明：① 全球粮食贸易规模在波动中呈快速上升态势,贸易增速年际波动较大;贸易商品结构不断多元化,但仍以小麦、玉米和大麦为主。② 全球粮食贸易网络密度不断增强,局部核心节点存在极化现象,但整体贸易网络多元化趋势不断增强。在国家尺度,粮食贸易网络结构由“东西轴线”转向“多点放射”,逐渐从极化转向多元;其中,粮食出口网络核心节点不断增加,但区域粮食出口网络仍受几个核心国家主导;进口网络的集中特征逐渐弱化且更加均衡。③ 土地资源禀赋、农业产业结构、对外开放程度是各个国家和地区参与全球粮食贸易的核心驱动因素,价格差异水平、语言邻近性、空间物理距离、社会治理水平对各个国家和地区参与全球粮食贸易有一定影响,其他因素的影响作用较小。该研究能丰富贸易地理相关研究,提升对全球粮食贸易的科学认知,并为保障中国粮食安全提供支撑。

Based on the panel data of 238 countries and regions, this study examined the change of the spatial pattern of the global grain trade network at different scales from 1988 to 2018. The zero-inflated negative binomial was introduced to construct the gravity model for analyzing the driving factors of the global grain trade network. The results show that: 1) The scale of the global grain trade showed a rapid fluctuating rising trend, while the growth rate of trade fluctuated greatly between years. The structure of trade commodities was constantly diversified but is still dominated by wheat, corn, and barley. 2) The density of the global grain trade network is increasing, with polarization of some core nodes and increasing diversification of the overall trade network. For example, the position of North America, Western Europe, East Asia, and so on, in the grain trade network is relatively declining, while the position of Eastern Europe, South America, and so on, has increased. On the national scale, the interaction of grain trade among countries and regions has enhanced, as the structure of the grain trade network has changed from an "east-west axis" to "multi-point radiation" with a gradual shift from polarization to pluralism. Although the number of core nodes in the grain export network is increasing, regional grain export networks are still dominated by only several key countries and show a strong local polarization phenomenon, while the centralized characteristics of import networks are gradually weakened and more balanced. 3) Natural endowment of land resources, the structure of agriculture, and the degree of opening up to the outside world are the core driving factors for countries and regions to participate in the global grain trade network. The levels of price differences, language proximity, spatial distance, and societal governance also have a certain impact on the participation of countries and regions in the global grain trade network. The influence of other factors is relatively small.

农产品贸易是“一带一路”沿线国家间经贸合作的重要内容,但现有贸易理论无法很好地解释“一带一路”国家间粮食贸易网络的格局演化。该文构建了一个四维菱形分析框架,并将社会网络分析与空间计量分析相结合,基于1993—2016年联合国商品贸易数据,分析了“一带一路”国家间粮食贸易网络的空间结构特征及其演化机制。结果表明：① “一带一路”国家间的粮食贸易网络密度不断提高,贸易关系和贸易强度不断加深,在全球粮食贸易网络中的地位呈波动上升态势,并出现明显的贸易俱乐部现象;② 该粮食贸易网络呈现由无核到多核再到重塑的演化历程;③ 中国与其他“一带一路”国家间的粮食贸易经历了从出口导向到进口导向的演化历程,“一带一路”倡议提高了中国在全球粮食贸易网络中的地位;④ “一带一路”国家间粮食贸易网络的演化是受资源禀赋、经济环境、文化认同和政治博弈4个因素共同作用的结果,各因素在不同阶段所起的作用不同;粮食贸易较其他贸易而言特色鲜明,其稳定性更强。研究结果对促进“一带一路”国家农业贸易的健康繁荣,建设开放包容的经济环境具有指导意义。

Trade of agricultural commodities is an important part of the economic and trade cooperation between the Belt and Road countries, but the existing trade theories cannot fully explain the pattern and change of the cereal trade network between these countries. This study set up a four-dimensional analytical framework, combined social network analysis with spatial econometric analysis, and analyzed the spatial structure characteristics and mechanism of change of cereal trade network between the Belt and Road countries based on the United Nations Comtrade data from 1993 to 2016. The results show that: 1) The cereal trade network density of the Belt and Road countries is constantly increasing while the trade relations and trade intensity between these countries are constantly deepening. The position of the Belt and Road countries in the global grain trade network is on the rise and there is a clear phenomenon of trade club. 2) The network of trade relations has evolved from non-nuclear to multi-nuclear, and then to reshaping. 3) China's cereal trade with other Belt and Road countries has undergone an evolution from export-oriented to import-oriented. The Belt and Road initiative has enhanced China's position in the global grain trade network. 4) The evolution of the national cereal trade network of the Belt and Road countries is the product of resource endowment, economic environment, cultural identity, and political games. Compared with other trade networks, grain trade network has distinct characteristics and stronger stability. This study may provide some guidance for promoting cereal trade cooperation among the Belt and Road countries, optimizing trade structure, and ensuring food security.