Comprehensive Method for Evaluating Energy Security
2011, 26 (6):
"Energy security" refers to capability and state that a country or a region may obtain stable, sufficient and clean energy supply to meet the requirements of ensuring prudent operation and sustainable and balanced development of its economy and society. For the evaluation of China's energy security situation, the technical key is how to quantitatively analyze the guarantee degree of energy supply under the multivariate energy structures, such as petroleum, gas, coal, civil nuclear and so on.We firstly design an evaluating system of energy security by ten factors from five aspects, according to three levels of "Composite Index-Essential Indicators-Key Factor". The five aspects are: 1) domestic energy supporting capability, 2) domestic production capacity, 3) ability of international market energy acquisition, 4) national emergency control ability, and 5) environmental safety control ability. And the ten factors include: 1) reserves-production ratio, 2) reserve replacement ratio, 3) production share, 4) self-sufficiency ratio, 5) import shares, 6) price, 7) reserves level, 8) energy consumption intensity, 9) carbon emissions, and 10) the proportion of clean energy. Then, we use the weighted aggregative model to make an integrated index of "energy security degree". Finally, the general state of energy security can be characterized and described by the integrated index.We choose 1 and 0 as the maximum and minimum of the value range of the integrated index, the higher the index, the safer the energy situation. Based on successive decrease of step width of 0.2, energy security degree is divided into five grades: safe, basically safe, unsafe, seriously unsafe and in crisis state, which correspond to five colors for early warning, they are in the order of green, blue, yellow, orange and red.Study indicates that currently the degree of China's energy security is 0.7125 averagely, being "basically safe". With proper future development programs and powerful measures, the degree of China's energy security will reach 0.8411 and 0.8477 respectively in 2020 and 2030, entering the "safe" interval. In case our country is implemented the energy blockade internationally, the indicator maybe decrease to 0.5520 of the state of "unsafe".To solve China's energy security, the key is to not only increase its strategic reserves, diversify the energy supply, strengthen geological exploration, develop alternative energy and raise energy efficiency, but also place energy diplomacy in a prominent position.
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