Changes of Citrus Climate Risk in Subtropics of China

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.06.008

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JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2011, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (6) : 971-980. DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.06.008

Special Column:Celebration of the 70th Anniversary of IGSNRR, CAS

Changes of Citrus Climate Risk in Subtropics of China

DUAN Hai-lai^1,2, QIAN Huai-sui¹, DU Yao-dong²

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Abstract

Based on the daily meteorological data of 273 stations from 1961 to 2005, simulated temperature and precipitation data under future climate scenarios (SRES A2), and by using citrus climate risk model, the climate risk for citrus in subtropics of China is studied. The results show that the changing rate and trend of citrus climate risk have different expressions in different zones, and citrus risk over the 46 years has an increasing trend, especially increasing rapidness from the early 1980s.The responses of citrus climate risk to global warming are different between the different zones, the study shows that the citrus climate risk decreases northward and in west mountainous area of subtropics of China, and the citrus climate risk increases in middle and south of subtropics of China, especially in middle of subtropics of China. So the northern part of subtropics of China will be suitable for the cultivation of citrus in the future, while the western region of subtropics which is unsuitable for citrus growing will become possible in the future.

Key words

citrus / subtropics of China / climate change scenario / climate change / climate risk degree

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DUAN Hai-lai, QIAN Huai-sui, DU Yao-dong. Changes of Citrus Climate Risk in Subtropics of China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2011, 26(6): 971-980 https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.06.008

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