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自然资源学报, 2023, 38(9): 2263-2282 doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20230905

“文化遗产与国家文化公园”专栏

气候变化对文化遗产的影响：机理、态势与应对

王灵恩,1, 李珂1,2, 崔家胜,1, 孙琳3, 张书颖1

1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，北京 100101

2.中国地质大学（武汉）地理与信息工程学院，武汉 430074

3.广西师范大学历史文化与旅游学院，桂林 541001

The impact of climate change on the protection of cultural heritage in China and its response

WANG Ling-en,1, LI Ke1,2, CUI Jia-sheng,1, SUN Lin3, ZHANG Shu-ying1

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

2. School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China

3. School of History Culture and Tourism, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin 541001, Guangxi, China

通讯作者: 崔家胜（1993- ），男，辽宁锦州人，硕士，研究方向为可持续消费。E-mail: cuijiasheng@igsnrr.ac.cn

收稿日期: 2023-03-13   修回日期: 2023-06-1  

基金资助: 国家自然科学基金项目(42171288)
科学技术部基础资源调查专项(2021FY101003)

Received: 2023-03-13   Revised: 2023-06-1  

作者简介 About authors

王灵恩（1987- ），男，山东沂南人，博士，副研究员，研究方向为旅游可持续消费。E-mail: wangle@igsnrr.ac.cn

摘要

近年来，气候变化严重威胁文化遗产保护工作，深入研究气候变化对文化遗产的影响机理和响应机制具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文解析了气候要素间的相互变化共同作用于文化遗产的机理和过程，并评估未来气候变化对中国文化遗产的影响及其趋势，探索了中国在文化遗产保护方面的利益相关者之间的互动关系网络。研究认为：（1）各气候要素及其变化作用于文化遗产的机理过程复杂多样；（2）需辩证看待未来气候变化对中国文化遗产的影响；（3）构建利益相关者网络有利于切实发挥不同角色的功能和作用。在气候变化加剧和“文化强国”战略背景下，研究结果有助于深化各界对文化遗产保护的理解，丰富文化遗产资源保护和利用的理论研究和探讨。

关键词： 气候变化; 文化遗产; 影响机制; 保护利用; 中国

Abstract

In recent years, the exacerbation of climate change poses a significant threat to cultural heritage protection in China. It is of both theoretical and practical significance to study the influencing mechanism and response mechanism of climate change influence on cultural heritage protection. This study analyzes the mechanism and process of mutual interaction of climate factors on cultural heritage, evaluates the influence and trend of future climate change on Chinese cultural heritage, and finally explores the interactive relationship among different stakeholders of Chinese cultural heritage protection. The results show the mechanism and process that the changes of various climate factors acting on cultural heritage are complex and diverse. The change of individual climate factors, the chain reaction triggered by the change of climate factor, and the interaction of different climate factors generally have a direct or indirect impact on cultural heritage. Moreover, solar radiation, temperature, humidity, air pollutants, precipitation and other climatic factors have affected Chinese cultural heritage to a certain extent, admittedly, but it is necessary to dialectically explore the impact of future climate change on Chinese cultural heritage. With the intensification of global warming and the appearance of extreme weather, the destruction of cultural heritage caused by the difference in temperature and freezing will be reduced, but the cultural heritage represented by ancient wooden buildings and grottoes will still face severe threats. Finally, the establishment of a network of stakeholders is beneficial to administrative departments, local governments, local communities, enterprises, tourists, researchers, and external pressure groups to play respective roles to jointly protect cultural heritage. Under the dual backgrounds of the intensification of climate change and the strategy of "cultural power", this paper is helpful to deepen the understanding of all circles on cultural heritage protection, and enrich the theoretical discussion about protection and utilization of cultural heritage.

Keywords： climate change; cultural heritage; influence mechanism; protection and utilization; China

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本文引用格式

王灵恩, 李珂, 崔家胜, 孙琳, 张书颖. 气候变化对文化遗产的影响：机理、态势与应对[J]. 自然资源学报, 2023, 38(9): 2263-2282 doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20230905

WANG Ling-en, LI Ke, CUI Jia-sheng, SUN Lin, ZHANG Shu-ying. The impact of climate change on the protection of cultural heritage in China and its response[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2023, 38(9): 2263-2282 doi:10.31497/zrzyxb.20230905

文化遗产是人类宝贵的财富，其保护和传承是人类共同的责任和可持续发展的必然要求。近些年来，气候变化带来的极端天气灾害等严重威胁文化遗产的安全。2021年 11月，联合国教育、科学及文化组织发布的《针对世界遗产的气候行动相关政策文件更新》中指出：“气候变化已成为世界遗产面临的最重大威胁之一，可能会影响包括其完整性和真实性在内的突出普遍价值及其在地方层面的经济和社会发展潜力”。

气候变化对文化遗产的影响研究从21世纪初开始得到研究者重视[1]，目前仍然是一个不断发展和备受关注的领域[2]。国外研究者主要关注文化遗产的重要性、受气候变化威胁的文化遗产范围、文化遗产与气候问题的关系、文化遗产保护在气候变化影响下的障碍。目前，相当数量的研究采用案例研究方法，其重点仅限于一种或几种遗产资源，很难做出更广泛的概括。值得注意的是，仅有少数学者考虑了非物质文化遗产的单独研究。在讨论气候变化对文化遗产的驱动机制时，仅考虑单一或两种驱动因素之间的关系，最常探讨的驱动因素组合是海平面上升[3]和温度变化[4]。国外普遍认可技术[5]、监管[6]和政策[7]为重要抓手并将其纳入适应和减缓路径中。与国外相比，国内的研究起步较晚且研究内容有限，主要研究在气候变化下对文化遗产的监测及其病害调查、应对气候变化的文物保护实践、国际遗产领域的行动对中国的启示等，同样以个案研究居多，即聚焦于特定地点、规定阶段的具体类型文物[8⇓-10]。遗憾的是，截至目前中国尚未有针对气候变化影响某项非物质文化遗产的研究。保护技术[11]、日常管理[12]、经费保障是专家建议多类型文物应对气候变化时要采取的统一行动。

总体上，目前国内外学者对气候变化背景下文化遗产保护方面作出了积极探索，但是现有研究多是基于单一气候要素的实证分析，缺乏从系统视角梳理气候变化对文化遗产的影响机理及其响应机制。中国在应对极端气候方面积累了丰富经验，中国学者开始关注和参与到气候变化对文化遗产的影响因素等方面的研究，并尝试一些新的文物保护方法，但在理论方面还有待总结和提炼。Orr等[2]梳理了全球在该领域的研究区域和地点后更是提到了其他国家或区域与欧洲和北美的研究差距悬殊，如果不解决西方国家在该科学问题方面的主导地位，则该领域可能会以主要反映欧洲和北美社区遗产、气候、价值观的证据来向全球制定并告知气候变化政策。这无疑对其他国家或地区的文化遗产保护工作造成了不合理且不利的威胁，中国也迫切需要增进对气候变化影响本国文化遗产的全面理解，并据此立足于中国国情来实施文化遗产保护或适应。

立足以上分析，本文利用文献分析和归纳总结方法，试图系统梳理国内外气候变化和文化遗产领域的研究成果，为气候变化影响文化遗产的机理过程提供见解，同时评估气候变化对中国文化遗产保护的影响现状和趋势，提出新时期中国文化遗产保护应对气候变化的机制和路径，为文化遗产保护的研究提出新的思路。研究结果旨在为气候变化和文化遗产资源领域的学术研究提供文献借鉴，同时为中国文化遗产保护和气候适应的政策制定提供参考。

1 气候变化对文化遗产的影响机理分析

1.1 文化遗产保护的环境要求

文化遗产是一组从历史继承下来的资源，它包括了人与地之间通过时间的相互作用而产生的环境的所有方面（欧洲委员会）。无论社会环境如何变迁，文化遗产是在由气候主导的生态环境框架下演化的产物，生态环境和社会环境共同塑造了文化遗产的形成与发展。作为文化遗产的创造者，人类始终在适应生态环境之余对其进行不同幅度的改造。因此，当作为形成背景的自然环境因素发生变化时，文化遗产的保护工作必然面临同样的适应过程。显然，强化从生态环境视角审视气候及其变化与文化遗产的关系极为关键。

文化遗产是人与环境互动的产物，文化遗产与生态环境和社会环境密不可分。不同环境塑造了各社区居民特有的思维方式、价值观念和生活方式，文化遗产正是对人类社会中不同文化的反映。文化遗产的保护，离不开对其“应在”环境和“所在”环境的关注。在此，本文仅讨论文化遗产所面临的气候环境，将气候的基本要素作为表述气候环境的基本依据。此外，由极端气候事件引发的灾害事件也应考虑在内[13]。气候环境结构如图1所示。

图1

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图1   气候环境结构

Fig. 1   Climatic environmental structure


“应在”环境即文化遗产所需的理想气候环境，以确保其保存、传承和展示的最佳条件，不同类型的文化遗产对各个气候要素的要求不一。已有研究凡是涉及某种或某类文化遗产的气候环境时，文化遗产通常指物质文化遗产和可以用“物”承载的非物质文化遗产。多数非物质文化遗产自身的一系列问题就很难被解决[14]，如公地所有和社区起源间存在矛盾、个人权利和文化权利失衡、与全球道德和伦理规范的一致性有待辩论等，且其与地方（或社区）的联系紧密相连，尝试提炼抽象的文化、遗产、地方价值以向管理和政策提供信息也是一项相当艰巨的任务。因为地方意义、身份认同、地方依赖等都是在复杂的心理和社会网络中随着时间推移而发生的[15]，要测量并据此估计气候变化对非物质文化遗产造成的影响，其难度可想而知。因此，本文选择的文化遗产以物质为主、以非物质为辅。

实际上，“静态”的“应在”气候环境只是理想化状态，气候变化已经改变了气温、湿度、风向风速、降水和辐射等气候变量，也加剧了灾害事件的发生频率。文化遗产“所在”的实际环境已经发生巨大改变，正如今天所经历的，气候变化成为一种威胁倍增器，并加剧了文化遗产预期的自然衰减速度[16]。文化遗产正面临着与气候变化相关的影响[17]，“气候变化因素被确定为文化遗产的最大威胁”这一观点已达成共识。因此，保护文化遗产需要根据其类型和气候环境需求，以及当前环境的气候条件，定期监测其“应在”环境和“所在”环境的差异程度，制定相应的保护策略，加强其应对气候变化的能力。

1.2 气候变化影响文化遗产的机制

1.2.1 气候变化的要素分析

气候变化是指自然系统和人类活动的温室气体排放导致的气候模式的变化[18]。另外，气候变化与大气污染紧密相关，气候特征及其变化会影响大气污染程度，如风速决定了大气污染物稀释的程度和扩散范围；大气污染引起气候恶化，二氧化碳的大量释放引起“温室效应”。日益严重的大气污染对文化遗产保护也造成了威胁。近几十年来，全球或地区气候和大气污染变化剧烈（表1）。

表1   全球或地区的气候和大气污染变化趋势

Table 1  Global or regional trends in climate and air pollution

气候/大气污染要素变化整体变化趋势
气候变化气温变化平均气温人类活动导致的全球变暖比工业化前水平高出约1.0 ℃[18]
极端气温中低纬度地区更易遭受热浪、高纬度地区更易遭受寒潮[19]
湿度变化绝对湿度全球范围内绝对湿度增加[20]
相对湿度1979—2014年全球相对湿度下降[21]
风向风速变化风向风速2013—2017年，春秋季节北美大陆的南风强度加强，其盛行西风带在春季加强、秋季减弱[22]
风趋雨赤道运动和大气环流加强[23]
降水变化降水量全球平均年降水量增加[24]；干燥区降水更少，湿润区降水更多[25]
极端降水暴雨的强度和频率增加[26]
辐射变化太阳辐射云量增加使全球太阳辐照度下降[27]
大气污染
的变化		有害气体的变化臭氧、一氧化碳、二氧化碳、氟氯化碳、硫氧化物、氮氧化物浓度增加[28]
颗粒物的变化预计颗粒物会随着气候变化而增加[29]

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1.2.2 气候变化对文化遗产的影响机理

气候环境是一个由多个要素及其交互作用形成的复杂体系[30]，这决定了气候变化并不是单一气候要素简单地作用于文化遗产。实际上，气候变化通常“牵一发而动全身”，气候要素之间相互联系、相互影响，气候变化对文化遗产的影响存在三种机理，如图2所示。

图2

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图2   气候环境变化影响文化遗产的机理和过程

Fig. 2   The mechanism and process of climate and environmental change affecting cultural heritage


（1）单个气候要素的变化直接导致文化遗产发生一种或多种变化

平均气温上升会加快文化遗产的老化速度，尤其是暴露在室外的文物以及各类有机质文物。文化遗产遇热时内部分子运动活跃，体积膨胀，产生热裂现象，再度受冷会收缩。此外，土质、石质和混凝土制成的文物易在气温变化下发生冻融循环，内部孔隙和裂缝逐渐增大直至破裂。极端温度（热浪和寒潮）使得文化遗产更加脆弱，增加上述事件的发生频率。

绝对湿度的增加使得空气中凝结水增加，其附着于文化遗产表面，加快文物表层风化过程，同时促进微生物繁殖，危及文物安全。这一现象在沿海地区更加显著，沿海地区岩石风化率比内陆地区岩石风化率高59%[31]。微生物在文化遗产中的定居、生长和侵蚀，细菌、真菌、藻类、苔藓等会破坏文化遗产的外观，使其着色或生成斑块，微生物代谢时会分泌有机酸，造成文物腐蚀[32]。相对湿度的高低引起有机文物的湿胀干缩，频繁变化则会使其损坏或发生永久性物理变形。

风的作用下，风力侵蚀会导致文化遗产退化，尤其是位于干旱半干旱地区开阔地带的文物。风向决定了文物遭受面的特定方向，高风速则加剧了风化侵蚀的强度。当吉萨高原的风向从北转向西北，狮身人面像左侧部分受到的表面摩擦力会显著增加，其左肩和大腿以及头部增加到25%[33]。此外，文化遗产易受到强风引起的上升压力或载荷，造成巨大破坏，常见有屋面板隆起、屋面与墙的连接失效、屋面系统损坏以及门窗玻璃因压力过大而破裂[34]。

太阳辐射过多会导致文化遗产的光泽下降，如暴露在阳光下的蛇纹岩的色度和色调会下降[35]。太阳辐射过少使得文化遗产接收的太阳能短缺，Murgul[36]建议在俄罗斯的北方城市圣彼得堡历史街区建立太阳能供应系统，促进建筑和太阳能的和谐融入。

（2）气候要素变化的连锁反应间接对文化遗产产生影响

与其他气候要素相比，降水变化影响文化遗产的机理更为复杂[37]。在降雨量增加的地区，文化遗产会遭受雨水冲刷甚至浸泡的危险。同时，雨水通过影响温湿度间接参与冻融循环、化学腐蚀和生物侵蚀等机理损害文化遗产，如雨水和酸性气体发生水解反应，腐蚀木质文物；生物侵蚀导致文物表面被污染、缝隙被加大、结构被降解。在降雨量减少的地区，湿度下降的干燥环境会使文化遗产表面隆起或开裂，也可能会使其所在场地更易受到火或风的影响[38]。极端降水会引起风暴潮、洪水等水文灾害，文化遗产会受到坍塌、下沉等直接损害，处在沿河和洪泛平原的文化遗产尤其危险，严重情况下可导致其完全消失。由风提供水平速度分量的降雨称为风驱雨[39]，风驱雨的物理撞击会导致材料从砖石建筑表面剥离。如果文物朝向与盛行风的方向一致，盛行风将会把雨水吹到裸露的建筑立面，从而导致文物的表层发生不同程度的恶化。

（3）气候要素变化的交互作用致使文化遗产发生改变

温度的上升增加了蒸发率，盐溶液渗透并聚集在多孔结构中，温度以及相对湿度变化时就会引起盐结晶发生机械应力，文物外层因此剥落，墨西哥Ixcaquixtla考古遗址的壁画油漆层分离是典型案例[40]。空气中的有害气体加上气候要素是文化遗产恶化的主要原因[41]。空气中的酸性气体、氮氧化物可与水蒸气生成强酸，对各类有机质文化遗产均有腐蚀作用。氯气可直接与多种金属和非金属文物发生反应，如青铜上出现的绿色粉末状锈斑就是由氯化物腐蚀而形成的。

气候变化正在增加灾害的数量及其毁灭性影响[42]，气象灾害、地质灾害、海洋灾害的发生频率升高。据统计，全球水文气象灾害由1987—1998年的平均每年195起增加到2000—2006年平均每年365起。降水的极度增加会诱发风暴、台风和洪水，影响文化遗产单体甚至淹没整座历史文化名城。降水的极度减少会造成严重干旱，增加森林文化遗产发生火灾的风险。与洪水等自然灾害伴随而来的还有地震、滑坡等地质灾害，这会使部分文物出现墙体开裂、饰件脱落、基底倾斜甚至整体坍塌。

值得提出的是，气候系统的变暖也使得非物质文化遗产保护面临着前所未有的考验。气候变化对物质文化遗产的负面影响无疑使得非物质文化遗产的承载主体和实践活动受到阻碍。社区居民被迫减少了物质依赖，割裂了精神联系。北极地区[43]、太平洋环礁国家[44]和非洲内陆国家[45]等的土著居民自愿或非自愿搬迁是气候变化影响非物质文化遗产的典型案例。以布基纳法索为例，极端干旱影响了其传统农业和粮食系统，许多居民不得已同时种植作物和卖牛来维持生存，他们感到失去了牧民身份。此外，气候变化会使得当地的文化习俗和传统缺失，美国Gullah Geechee社区拥有一项关于制作香草篮的工艺传统，这种草因一系列海洋灾害越来越难以获得，导致该项传统技艺严重衰落[46]。同样，传统历法如中国的二十四节气在适用性方面已经悄然发生变化，暑天天数增多，寒天天数减少[47]。萨哈共和国以Jyl Oghuha（“冬天的公牛”）来解释当地从冬天到春天的转变，而其随着气候变暖也许不复存在[48]，这表明一些传统口头文学以及作为其载体的语言将会随气候变化消失。气候要素的复杂变化干扰到了社区居民的行为能力，海冰融化导致加拿大北部的因纽特人丧失了对当地环境知识的熟识度和文化的认同感[49]。人类迁徙往往会切断与地方的联系[50]。同时，气候变化驱动的地方变化也会减弱当地居民的地方感，如人类在灾害过后会产生急性或慢性的“生态悲伤”的心理和情感[49]，这些都使得居民的生存能力下降、社会和文化生活受到影响。

2 气候变化对中国文化遗产影响的态势

2.1 中国气候变化特征与文化遗产保护现状

气候变化是全球共同面临的挑战，IPCC发布的《2022年气候变化：影响、适应和脆弱性》[51]表示中国将是受气候影响最大的国家之一。中国疆域辽阔、海陆兼备、地形多样，因此气候变化所呈现出的特征也十分复杂（表2）。

表2   中国气候要素变化的整体及区域趋势

Table 2  The overall and regional trends of climate factors change in China

气候要素变化整体趋势区域趋势
气温变化平均气温：中国平均气温呈上升趋势，速率约为0.300 ℃/10 a[52,53]
极端气温：1991—2014年，中国热浪日数迅速增长[54]；1960—2016年，中国大多数地区发生寒潮的频数下降[55]		平均气温：东北地区、西北地区、西南地区的气温上升速率较大[53]
极端气温：高温热浪主要出现在华北到华南[56]；1978—2009年，华南地区更容易发生极端低温事件，寒潮频数高[55]
湿度变化湿润指数：1960—2018年，中国湿润指数呈增加趋势，速率达0.102/10 a[53]湿润指数：西北地区、华东地区等地湿润指数增加，西南地区东部和华北地区下降[55⇓⇓⇓-59]
风向风速变化风速：中国大部分地区近地表风速下降，速率约为-0.11 ms/10 a[60]
风向：1956—2005年中国年盛行风向频率有减少的趋势[61]		风速：北方地区风速大于南方地区。春季风力最强，尤其是西北、华北常有沙尘暴发生[61]
风向：除35°N附近的山东部分地区以外，中国华北南部、华东和华南大部在春季、秋季、冬季时盛行北风，夏季时盛行南风[61]
降水变化降水量：中国降水量整体增加，平均增加趋势为11.722 mm/10 a[53]
极端降水：地表每变暖1 ℃，中国的极端降水增加22.6%[62]		降水量：西北地区、西南地区的青藏高原区、华南地区的降水量增加趋势最为显著[56]，与此相反，华北地区的降水量呈减少趋势[63]
极端降水：主要发生在东部的东北到华南[56]
辐射变化太阳辐射：1962—2015年，中国大部分地区的太阳辐射呈下降趋势[64]太阳辐射：华北地区东南部、东北地区东部、西南地区东部、华南地区南部显著增加[64]
空气污染变化有害气体：1961—2010年，中国大多数地区的CO2浓度升高约1 ppm[65]
颗粒物：2013—2017年，中国颗粒物质量浓度呈显著下降趋势；然而64%的城市PM2.5年质量浓度超过中国环境空气质量新标准（CAAQS）二级（GB30952012）[66]		有害气体：气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）能直接反映大气污染物状况，中国AOD值较高的地区分布在华北、华南、华中、华东地区以及四川盆地[67]
颗粒物：太行山以东地区、汾河、渭河平原、新疆乌昌地区的PM2.5浓度负荷较高，秋冬季重雾霾污染频繁发生[66]
灾害变化自然灾害：① 气象灾害：1950—2013年，中国旱涝灾害的影响面积显著增加[68]。近几年台风呈增多趋势，且多活跃在夏秋季节[69]。② 海洋灾害：1980—2021年，中国海平面上升速率高达3.4 mm/a[70]
地质灾害：包括中国在内的大多数国家和地区的滑坡灾害呈上升趋势[71]		自然灾害：① 气象灾害：华中、华东、华南地区因降水集中度增加使得其春秋季的干旱加剧[72]，夏季的暴雨雨量和雨日增加[73]；“湿润地区更加湿润，干旱地区更加干旱”的局面正在形成。沿海地区的广东省台风发生频数最高[69]。② 海洋灾害：广州、福建、浙江和海南因台风引发的风暴潮而遭受的直接经济损失和死亡人数最多[74]
地质灾害：多发生在西南山区、东南沿海地区[71]

注：在实际操作中，绝对湿度和相对湿度不易直接测量，中国专家常用湿润指数的大小来衡量湿度变化，指的是地面收入水分与其支出水分之比，比值越大，气候越湿润。

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中国有着悠久的文化遗产保护传统，经历了形成、发展和完善三个时期，分别是对器物文物的单一保护、增加历史文化名城保护的双层次保护、重心转向历史文化保护的多层次保护。1982年《中华人民共和国文物保护法》的颁布实施，标志着中国文化遗产保护进入法制化轨道。目前中国以《文物保护法》为中心，以行政法规为依托，以部门规章、地方性法规、行业标准等为主要内容，建成了一套完善的文物保护法律法规体系。文物普查是文化遗产保护的首要基础工作，中国在1956年、1981年和2007年分别进行过三次不可移动文物普查，2013年进一步廓清了全国可移动文物家底，为中国文化遗产保护政策的科学性提供了有力依据。中国也高度重视全球气候变化对文化遗产带来的不利影响。第一部《国家适应气候变化战略》（2013年）提出要“加强对受气候变化威胁的风景名胜资源以及濒危文化和自然遗产的保护”。国家文物局致力于探索如何在气候变化下建立起文物保护机制，并和有关部门合作及时推出气候变化相关信息以及应急保护制度。同时，中国积极响应气候变化国际议题，参与并举办相关学术研讨会，共享中国保护文化遗产经验，学习借鉴他国保护文化遗产的成功案例。这些方面的进展标志着中国在文化遗产保护方面取得了重要成就，并展示了中国在保护、管理和可持续发展文化遗产方面的长远愿景和承诺。

2.2 气候变化对中国文化遗产的影响分析

太阳辐射以及温度气候的变化会影响文化遗产表面温度，使得文物裂缝加大、剥落破裂，以及引起火灾直接烧毁文物。昼夜温差是文物表层风化壳、裂隙的形成、发育以及剥蚀的主要原因[75]。气温过高为火灾创造了条件，青海查来坚贡佛堂的房顶、门窗、四壁和实木框等建筑均遭大火破坏[76]（图3a）。此外，受太阳辐射影响，文物表面温度分布不均，导致龙门石窟内的大卢舍那像龛表面风化裂隙、岩溶、植物覆盖等病害有明显的方位性和季节性分布[81]（图3b）。

图3

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图3   气候变化作用于中国文化遗产的典型案例

Fig. 3   Typical examples of how climate change is affecting China's cultural heritage


湿度气候的变化与温度气候变化、空气污染物变化一起作用于文化遗产，污染其表面，加大其裂缝，降低其强度。霉菌会在适宜的温湿度下大量滋生，引起文物的表层霉变，苏州丝绸博物馆内的黑色团花马褂是其典型代表[77]（图3c）。大量空气污染物与高湿度组合则会加快文化遗产的病害速度。有学者曾研究秦始皇兵马俑博物馆陶器库内的大气成分，发现颗粒物随着室内温湿度的变化反复结晶沉淀，已造成陶器表层酥解[78]（图3d）。不可移动文物亦是如此，云冈石窟所处的气候条件和长期沉积的粉尘使得石雕造像表面呈现深灰色或灰黑色，且粉尘改变了部分砂岩原有的矿物组成，使文物结构疏松、风化速度加快[82]。

降水气候的变化使文化遗产周围环境的湿度变化，导致系列灾害发生。极端降水的增加会引起暴雨等气象灾害以及洪涝、滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害，造成文化遗产表面污染、脆弱碎裂甚至坍塌下沉。2021年10月12日山西发生暴雨，全省共有1783处文物发生了屋顶渗漏、墙体开裂、地基塌陷、墙体崩塌等灾害[79]（图3e）。降水的极端减少会使得干旱频繁，尤其对水文化遗产来说，会中断其相关传统习俗，影响历史古城的整体地方感。2009—2012年，云南遭遇百年来最严重旱灾，致使丽江古城的黑龙潭干涸，部分河流断流，丽江古城的放荷灯、送纸船等传统习俗被瓦解[83]（图3f）。

气候变化带来的风向风速改变对中国不同地区文化遗产造成显著影响。单一变化导致文化遗产风化、剥落甚至坍塌，尤其对于中国干旱、半干旱气候区的不可移动文物。南方地区沿海台风逐渐频繁是气候变化的重要方面。2019年8月9日台风“利奇马”袭击台州，致使57处不可移动文物受灾，以木结构传统建筑受灾为主，主要有屋面损害、墙体坍塌、梁架坍塌等损害[84]。还有学者测量了干旱区文化遗产的受损数据，赵海英等[80]发现甘肃河仓城的东南角已凹进高约2 m，深约1.5~2 m，随时可能坍塌（图3g）。而风向致使文化遗产受损程度不一，如新疆交河故城大部分面向西北的墙面风蚀严重[85]（图3h）。

2.3 气候变化对中国文化遗产影响的趋势

未来全球气候系统的变化将继续以全球变暖为中心，中国的气温也会持续升高，北方地区的这一趋势更为明显。杨绚等[86]利用CMIP 5的30个气候模式预估北方地区的增暖趋势以西南地区的青藏高原区、华北地区的内蒙古地区、东北地区东部为主。气温上升利于昼夜温差的缩小，这意味着文化遗产所受温差风化、冻融风化的影响将会变小；相反，热裂作用以及盐结晶和潮解作用可能会更加显著，这使得室外文物面临着外貌更易变形、裂缝加速扩大的危险，最终导致其成块破裂。

有学者观察到近几十年来西北地区的北风减弱、南风增强，这有利于削弱中国的冬季风，减少西北地区冬半年的大风天气和寒潮天气，西北地区的文化遗产更易保存，特别是大型室外文物有关风力侵蚀和空气污染的病害将会减少。同时来自印度洋和西太平洋的南部水汽正逐渐向北方输送，从西风中带来的水分也在不断增多，因此，中国大部分地区的湿度可能会增加。尤其是北方地区从暖干到暖湿的转变，为微生物的生长和繁殖提供了更加适宜的环境条件，植物根部也会沿着文物已有的缝隙生长，文化遗产将面临更频繁的化学腐蚀和生物侵蚀。

预估中国未来的降水量普遍增加，这一变化在西北地区尤为明显，华北地区和东北地区南部以及长江中下游地区则呈现减少趋势[86]。降水增加导致文化遗产更易遭受雨水侵蚀，同时增加其与温度、湿度共同影响的概率，进而发生水的化学腐蚀、生物侵蚀、盐类结晶和潮解等一系列作用，使文化遗产发生腐烂、泛碱、风化等多种病害。尽管北方地区的降水量预计增加，其蒸发量却因气温显著上升而更加强烈。Hui等[87]通过检测极端气候事件的变化发现中国湿润地区的干旱事件较少，干旱和半干旱地区相反。干旱环境不易滋生霉菌，利于多数文化遗产的保存，特别对于力学强度低、易在水中崩解的土质文物。但干旱会放大高温影响，引发沙尘暴、火灾等一系列自然灾害，直接冲击文化遗产。

由于气候要素变化的复杂性，中国极端事件预计会增多。极端温度事件在全国范围内将呈现一致的变化模式，即热浪事件增加，寒潮事件减少。这对中国高寒山区的冰川是极为致命的，冰川融化将会导致中国长江、黄河等几大河流的源头发生水资源短缺，威胁当地乃至中国全域的文化遗产储存环境。极端降水事件的频率显示出区域性和季节性的显著趋势[88]，夏季风的增强使得中国沿海地区更易发生洪涝灾害，北方地区降水量的普遍增加可能会扩张降水事件的频次和强度。中国的古建筑多以土质材料和木质材料为主，历经几百年的风吹雨打已经变得十分脆弱，该类文化遗产更易遭受极端降雨的损害，发生地基松动、墙体开裂、倾斜坍塌。

根据中低排放的设想，到2050年中国海平面相对于1995—2014年间将上升0.1~ 0.4 m[89]。其结果是加剧盐水入侵，文化遗产易发生腐蚀、生锈和盐沉积，导致其构成材料退化。同时，文化遗产以及历史文化名城面临着更多的海岸侵蚀和洪水、风暴潮威胁，沿海地区有可能被海水淹没，这意味着中国部分地区可能会发生人口迁移，产盐、捕鱼等传统生活方式可能由此改变。

3 利益相关者视角下文化遗产保护与气候变化应对

3.1 中国文化遗产保护在应对气候变化过程中的问题

气候变化的威胁下，中国文化遗产保护任务依然十分艰巨。UNESCO在“气候变化对世界遗产影响政策文件”的信息会议上提出的四项行动目标对中国在该方面的保护和管理工作提出了新的框架[90]，推进文化遗产高质量发展的现实路径面临新的问题与挑战，包括在文化遗产风险评估、机构与能力建设、改革破题能力等方面亟需提升。

气候变化影响文化遗产的风险评估与管理处于初步阶段，预防气象次生及衍生灾害对文化遗产资源的威胁能力弱。国家行政部门缺乏具体的应对气候变化对于遗产威胁程度的完整评价机制和对精细空间尺度极端气候变化的预警机制；受限于地区发展差异，地方政府及政府部门在气候灾害上的信息获取能力存在明显差异，直接降低了文化遗产的风险抵抗能力。

在机构与能力建设方面，管理部门间推进文化遗产保护应对机制的系统性不强、整体性不够。中国文化遗产保护和管理聚焦于政府推动的特定地点和特定种类的文化遗产保护，以当地社区为代表的利益相关者对新形势下文化遗产保护工作的认识度不足与参与度不够，二元分立的情况充斥着遗产保护与管理的各个方面，进一步制约了文化遗产保护工作的效率。

在改革破题能力方面，对文化遗产价值的认识反思不足，未能从保护观念、机制、技术与管理方式等方面破题。在中国极端气候频发的当下，大部分省份地区在灾害发生后才开展文化遗产保护工作，保护主体责任落实不到位。同时，文化遗产保护科研力量不足，文物保护相关机构力量薄弱，社会力量参与不足，技术储备难以应对日趋严峻的文化遗产保护形式等问题。

3.2 文化遗产保护的利益相关者构成

文化遗产保护作为系统性工程，涉及众多利益相关者。整体而言，文化遗产保护的利益相关者分为7类：国家行政部门、当地政府及政府部门、当地社区、文化遗产相关企业、游客、相关科研人员、外部压力集团。在国家行政部门方面，中国涉及国务院、中央宣传部、文化和旅游部、国家发展改革委员会、财政部等11类利益相关者。国务院负责制定气候变化对于遗产威胁程度的完整评价机制及文化遗产保护行政法规，统一领导国家各部委推动文化遗产高质量发展。中央宣传部负责启迪公众对遗产保护深刻的理解和自觉参与，保护传承中华优秀传统文化。文化和旅游部参与遗产研究、管理、保护各项国际事务，统筹协调遗产保护与城乡建设、经济发展、旅游开发的关系，强化非物质文化遗产的抢救、保护和传承。国家发展改革委员会负责细化保护任务，组织拟定文化遗产应对气候变化重大战略、规划和政策；与各部委共同牵头参加气候变化国际谈判，负责国家履行联合国气候变化框架公约的相关工作；承担规划国家文化遗产保护重大项目。财政部下达项目补助经费和组织管理经费，用于加强气候变化背景下中国文化遗产保护。科学技术部负责建立具有中国特色的文化遗产价值认知、保护和传承利用基本理念和方法论研究，推动文化遗产保护与空间规划、气候科学、材料科学、地理学、海洋等学科的合作交流，突破针对复杂气候条件下可移动文物和不可移动文物的保护修复关键技术。人力资源和社会保障部加强人才培育和队伍建设，构建文化遗产高层次人才培养体系。自然资源部研究制定引导文化遗产合理利用的规划、土地等支持政策，并将文化遗产保护纳入国土空间规划编制；加强各级自然资源主管部门与文物主管部门的协调机制；联合相关部门开展文化遗产资源普查，将文化遗产空间信息纳入国土空间基础信息平台。住房城乡建设部加强历史文化名城、名镇、名村等历史文化资源的挖掘、认定和保护；完善保护传承管理体制，形成国家、省、市、县上下联动保护。应急管理部建立气候影响文化遗产评估、监测预警和预防性保护体系，使保护管理工作更具针对性和前瞻性；提高气候变化、极端气候时文化遗产保护的安全防范与监管。中国气象局构建气候要素变化对于文化遗产威胁程度的评价机制和对极端气候的预警机制；提升气象灾害预报预警能力，明确文化遗产应灾响应的抗灾行动预案，推动保护工作向科学化、系统化方向发展。其他利益相关者及其发挥作用如表3所示。

表3   气候变化背景下文化遗产保护的部分利益相关者

Table 3  Partial stakeholders of cultural heritage protection in the context of climate change

类型利益相关者发挥作用
地方政府及
政府部门		当地政府文化遗产实际的管理主体，落实国家行政部门的保护要求，推动行政区域内文化遗产高质量发展
当地文化和旅游部门协调行政区域内文化遗产资源的保护和发展；对旅游企业和游客进行管理
其他政府部门负责行政区域内的文化遗产行政管理职能，全面负责文化遗产的规划、保护、建设和利用
当地气象局组织协调完成行政区域内的气象服务，预警气候要素波动变化，实现文化遗产预防性保护
当地社区社区居民文化遗产发展的核心路径，维护文化遗产的自然性及原生性，促进文化遗产可持续发展
居/村委会宣传气候变化背景下文化遗产保护的紧迫性与必要性，激发辖区内居民保护文化遗产的自觉性与责任感；协助相关部门对文化遗产进行日常维护，协调辖区内居民与相关企业间的利益关系
文化遗产
相关企业		景区经营管理机构负责文化遗产的经营管理、日常维护和监测，实现文化遗产的高质量发展
旅游企业联结文化遗产与外界的重要媒介；对文化遗产资源进行商业性利用与开发
游客观光型游客促进文化遗产地基础设施建设，提升旅游业态品质；游客消费行为直接影响当地政府及相关企业对文化遗产保护利用的机制
研学型游客协调文化遗产与旅游开发的关系，促进合理保护与适度开发相结合；提升文化遗产科普研学功能，弘扬中华优秀传统文化；推动文化遗产的活化利用，为文化遗产的传承与保护提供新路径
相关科研
人员与机构		教育科研机构结合研究领域开展文化遗产研究项目和保护工程，探索气候变化背景下文化遗产的应对技术，梳理不同气候要素变化对文化遗产资源产生的影响机理；跨学科研究，优化遗产保护风险应对机制与能力，为地方文化遗产高质量发展提供指导
文化艺术研究院/所
非遗传承人非物质文化的传承与发展者，保持中华民族优秀文化的传承，增进世界文化的多样性和创造性
外部压力集团以联合国教科文组织为代表的国际组织参与世界遗产的甄选、管理与保护工作；通过起草和发布文化遗产保护方面的国际文件和法律建议，应对气候变化，促进文化遗产的可持续发展；为文化遗产的保护提供资金与项目技术咨询
相关社会团体承担文化遗产的保护、宣传、科研等公益性事业；协调各个国家或地区的政府应对气候变化
环保组织对文化遗产经营性管理活动施加压力和影响，为文化遗产应对气候要素变化提供技术指导
媒体构建具有鲜明中国特色的文化遗产传播体系，助力文化遗产的保护、利用与传承；发挥信息中介作用，对文化遗产资源开发与利用进行监督

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3.3 气候变化和文化遗产保护利益相关者的网络构建

在中国，不同利益相关者在文化遗产保护应对气候变化的角色定位不同，各自的利益诉求和发挥作用也各有不同。利益冲突和合作使得利益相关者之间无法实现协调和均衡，在满足利益诉求的同时让各方自觉为保护文化遗产付诸行动，开展气候变化背景下文化遗产保护与利益相关者的互动关系网络显得十分迫切。

国家行政部门的利益诉求在于整个国家的生态效益、经济效益和社会效益，政府充分履行公共服务职能才能为气候变化下文化遗产继续发挥公共属性提供平台。政府通过将气候变化纳入到文化遗产法规、提供遗产领域应对气候变化的指导方针和实施财政激励措施，使各利益相关者共同致力于应对气候变化，有助于树立政府形象、联结民族情感、维护国家统一与社会稳定。同时，政府统筹社会各界继续努力减少温室气体排放，改善的气候环境能够推动文化遗产的保护进而促进民族的文化自觉和文化复兴和保持世界文化多样性。

当地政府及政府部门的利益诉求在于当地的生态效益、经济效益、社会效益以及保持地方感，地方政府在文化遗产保护应对气候变化工作中发挥着具体管理和监督的作用。在宏观政策指引下，针对当地各类型文化遗产面临的主要气候问题，优先考虑最脆弱的气候要素，升级文化遗产及其所在地管理计划，把握决策制定、资金投入、绩效监督等关键环节[91]，将信息向下传递到当地管理部门和相关企业，与当地企业、社区、外部压力集团共同促进文化遗产保护与利用良性互动，有利于树立地方政府公信力、保持文化遗产的地方性、提升当地价值。

当地社区的利益诉求在于改善自身条件、保护传统和保持文化认同感，通常当地社区是对文化遗产需求作出回应的唯一利益相关方[92]。当地政府、相关科研人员、媒体等应与社区建立伙伴关系，为其提供日常监督、应急管理、减少生活碳足迹等方面的能力培训和信息共享。居民可深度参与保护决策，发挥应对气候变化的经验优势，促进文化遗产为居民提供可持续福利。然而，由于中国社区在该方面经常处于弱势地位，居民参与决策需要有力的政策支持和措施保障。

文化遗产相关企业的利益诉求在于获得利润回报，响应文化遗产保护应对气候变化的工作是企业履行社会责任的必然选择。企业有能力在修复文化遗产时选择环保材料从而提高能源效率，也可在经营活动中管理行为以实现企业发展与碳排放“脱钩”[93]。保持文化遗产的良好形象和打造负责任的企业形象，有助于增强企业的市场竞争力和经营活动的文化内涵。然而，企业以利润最大化为最终诉求，要求相关研究人员创新技术和能源以降低企业成本，社区的日常监督、当地政府的监管惩治和市场激励也是必要手段。

游客的利益诉求在于收获高质量旅游经历，其文明旅游行为对保护文化遗产十分重要。游客的文明行为不易导致文化遗产所在地局部气候环境发生急剧变化，这要求有关企业及文物保护人士在宣传、教育和指导等方面为其提供管理与服务。同时游客消费是支付遗产保护费用的来源之一，其保护意识能够吸引当地政府和社区参与到保护工作中。高质量的旅游体验也需要一定条件，气候变化对文化遗产造成的负面影响将干扰游客对文化遗产的真实性感知，易导致其期望价值与感知价值产生较大差异。

相关科研人员的利益诉求在于文化保护和研究创新，其作为公共知识分子为该项工作提供了智力支持。科研人员凭借掌握的学科知识和方法论，识别不利于遗产保护的气候要素，在资源普查、影响评估、遗产修复、技术创新、保护模式优化方面，发挥综合交叉科学考察优势，利于促进遗产保护、改善气候环境、科研三者之间的良性循环。科研人员可参与政府决策，为基层工作人员和当地社区培训授课，同时也通过实地调研积累了一手资料，利于其在研究领域实现新思考、新探索和新成果。

外部压力集团的利益诉求在于文化保护和教育功能，社会力量的广泛参与辅助形成文化遗产保护应对气候变化的最佳解决方案。社会公众是潜在的文化遗产保护者，外部压力集团要发挥共享信息、知识和开放对话方面的优势，唤起社会公众的行为方式和价值理念向延缓气候变化靠拢，助力实现双碳目标，为文化遗产保护营造有利的气候环境，以保持文化遗产的文化交流和教育功能。

综上，气候变化背景下的文化遗产保护需要联结各利益相关者在内的社会力量，构建互动关系网络来解决各利益相关者对文化遗产保护的需求。该网络也能够加强各方之间的信息共享和沟通，增进合作关系，减少冲突和误解，利于利益协调、遗产保护和气候适应与减缓（图4）。

图4

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图4   气候变化背景下文化遗产保护与利益相关者的互动关系网络示意图

Fig. 4   Interactive network between cultural heritage protection and stakeholders in the context of climate change


总之，人类活动是气候变化的主要原因之一，包括利益相关者们在内的人类承受着气候变化带给文化遗产的积极或消极影响，总体上消极影响偏多。为了应对这些负面影响，不得不重视气候变化、利益相关者、文化遗产保护之间的互动关系，以厘清气候变化对文化遗产造成的影响与人类有何关联，进而对人类如何推进文化遗产保护有更加深入的了解。利益相关者们发挥其各自作用，分别实施气候风险评估、气候适应、气候缓解和知识共享、能力建设和认识四个方面的行动目标，以改善负面影响，促进文化遗产保护适应气候变化，这对实现人类可持续发展目标具有重大贡献[94]（图5）。

图5

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图5   气候变化、利益相关者、文化遗产保护之间的互动关系

Fig. 5   Interactive relationship among climate change, stakeholders and cultural heritage protection


4 结论

气候变化对文化遗产的影响是近年来的热门话题，但众多研究侧重于某一方面气候变化要素对某一类型文化遗产影响的实证研究，从系统视角全面分析气候变化对文化遗产影响机理的研究甚少。本文抛砖引玉，综合分析了气候变化影响文化遗产的机制，评估了现阶段气候变化对中国文化遗产的影响现状和未来趋势，构建了气候变化、文化遗产保护和利益相关者的关系网络，期望能够加深各界对气候变化和文化遗产保护关系的理解，推动该领域研究和实践的深化。

基于研究结论，本文进一步提出未来研究建议：（1）加强气候变化对文化遗产的系统评估研究。当前，气候变化对中国文化遗产的影响依然缺乏系统评估，影响的程度、区域、特征等系列关键问题仍然没有明确的结论，亟待基于不同尺度、不同要素、不同维度开展系统研究。（2）加强利益共享机制的研究。文化遗产保护涉及气候要素的复杂变化和多重利益相关者等众多约束条件，应通过进一步深化气候风险评估体系、强化机构与能力建设、创新气候适应与减缓举措和明确利益主体的权责一体化机制，来探索中国文化遗产应对气候变化的可持续性发展路径。（3）强化数字技术在文化遗产应对气候变化过程中应用研究。将文化遗产资源转变为数字产品的保存、加工及传播，基于数字技术加强世界各国共同探索文化遗产关联与保护机制的研究与行动。（4）重视文化遗产旅游的发展模式研究。气候变化背景下的文化遗产保护和利用关系更加复杂，矛盾更加突出，应探索重构旅游发展模式，考虑发挥社区的决策权力，协调气候变化背景下的文化遗产保护与开发。

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Nature Communications, 2018, 9(1): 1-11.

DOI:10.1038/s41467-017-02088-w      [本文引用: 1]

Many studies have shown how pigments and internal nanostructures generate color in nature. External surface structures can also influence appearance, such as by causing multiple scattering of light (structural absorption) to produce a velvety, super black appearance. Here we show that feathers from five species of birds of paradise (Aves: Paradisaeidae) structurally absorb incident light to produce extremely low-reflectance, super black plumages. Directional reflectance of these feathers (0.05–0.31%) approaches that of man-made ultra-absorbent materials. SEM, nano-CT, and ray-tracing simulations show that super black feathers have titled arrays of highly modified barbules, which cause more multiple scattering, resulting in more structural absorption, than normal black feathers. Super black feathers have an extreme directional reflectance bias and appear darkest when viewed from the distal direction. We hypothesize that structurally absorbing, super black plumage evolved through sensory bias to enhance the perceived brilliance of adjacent color patches during courtship display.

WOOD J D, GAUVIN C, YOUNG C R T, et al.

Reconstruction of historical temperature and relative humidity cycles within Knole House, Kent

Journal of Cultural Heritage, 2019, 39: 212-220.

DOI:10.1016/j.culher.2019.04.006      URL     [本文引用: 1]

GUZMAN P, FATORIĆ S, ISHIZAWA M.

Monitoring climate change in world heritage properties: Evaluating landscape-based approach in the state of conservation system

Climate, 2020, 8(3): 39, Doi: 10.3390/cli8030039.

URL     [本文引用: 1]

Climate change is increasingly being recognized as a threat to natural and cultural World Heritage (WH) sites worldwide. Through its interaction with other stressors, climate change accelerates existing risks while also creating new obstacles. A more considerable focus is needed in both research and practice to explore proactive measures for combatting this issue (e.g., mitigation and actions prior to impacts occurring). World Heritage values in climate change decision-making processes is an important factor in this regard. This paper explores a discussion of climate change within the WH monitoring system. It offers an overview of practice based on the extent to which WH properties (natural, mixed and cultural) implement landscape-based approaches alongside the conservation and management of their outstanding universal value within the context of climate uncertainty and environmental change. Landscape approaches are gaining importance in the WH conservation system, where they aim to provide concepts and tools for managing heritage toward sustainable practices. This research analyses the state of conservation reports and provides an overview of practice across time, categories and geographical regions. Based on a theoretical approach, empirical analyses identify four landscape principles that are increasingly shaping the debate around climate change issues in WH properties. Although these are highly relevant to advancing much-needed collaboration among scientific disciplines and governance sectors, we argue that further understanding is required on the transformational process of heritage values, as well as on the nature–culture relationship, in order to underpin heritage as a source for local resilience and climate mitigation.

BERTOLIN C.

Preservation of cultural heritage and resources threatened by climate change

Geosciences, 2019, 9(6): 250, Doi: 10.3390/geosciences9060250.

URL     [本文引用: 1]

With a wide spectrum of data, case studies, monitoring, and experimental and numerical simulation techniques, the multidisciplinary approach of material, environmental, and computer science applied to the conservation of cultural heritage offers several opportunities for the heritage science and conservation community to map and monitor the state of the art of the knowledge referring to natural and human-induced climate change impacts on cultural heritage—mainly constituted by the built environment—in Europe and Latin America. The special issue “Preservation of Cultural Heritage and Resources Threatened by Climate Change” of Geosciences—launched to take stock of the existing but still fragmentary knowledge on this challenge, and to enable the community to respond to the implementation of the Paris agreement—includes 10 research articles. These papers exploit a broad range of data derived from preventive conservation monitoring conducted indoors in museums, churches, historical buildings, or outdoors in archeological sites and city centers. Case studies presented in the papers focus on a well-assorted sample of decay phenomena occurring on heritage materials—e.g., surface recession and biomass accumulation on limestone, depositions of pollutant on marble, salt weathering on inorganic building materials, and weathering processes on mortars in many local- to regional-scale study areas in the Scandinavian Peninsula, the United Kingdom, Belgium, France, Italy, Greece, and Panama. Besides monitoring, the methodological approaches that are showcased include, but are not limited to, original material characterization, decay product characterization, and climate and numerical modelling on material components for assessing environmental impact and climate change effects.

HASSAN K, HIGHAM J, WOOLISCROFT B, et al.

Climate change and world heritage: A cross-border analysis of the Sundarbans (Bangladesh-India)

Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 2019, 11(2): 196-219.

DOI:10.1080/19407963.2018.1516073      URL     [本文引用: 1]

王琳, 武虹, 贾鑫.

西辽河地区史前聚落的时空演变与生业模式和气候历史的相关性研究

地球科学进展, 2016, 31(11): 1159-1171.

DOI:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.11.1159      [本文引用: 1]

西辽河地区是中国北方农业文明的重要发源地之一。随着近年来文物普查、遗址发掘和环境考古工作的不断深入,该地区史前文化的时间序列、文化内涵和生业模式变得更加清晰。史前人类对自然资源的开发历史、生业模式变化的气候背景及其对文明进程的影响等问题引起了广泛关注。已有的工作大多采用传统环境考古手段进行遗址内调查,很少采用定量方法分析宏观尺度的遗址分布和聚集模式。在数字化大量文物普查数据的基础上,GIS的核密度分析被用来反映西辽河地区史前文化的聚集模式,并通过三维视角转换和海拔统计来反映遗址分布重心在纬向、经向及高程上的变化规律。通过对比空间分析结果和已有的生业模式研究及古气候记录,揭示了研究区史前聚落的时空分布与当时的生业模式和气候环境之间的关联,也有助于史前人地关系研究中海量遗址位置信息的理解和使用。

[WANG L, WU H, JIA X.

A study on the temporal and spatial evolution of prehistoric settlements in Western Liaohe Region

Advances in Earth Science, 2016, 31(11): 1159-1171.]

[本文引用: 1]

汪怡, 梁龙, 孙延忠, 等.

山西省不可移动文物洪涝灾害风险研究

自然灾害学报, 2022, 31(3): 35-47.

[本文引用: 1]

[WANG Y, LIANG L, SUN Y Z, et al.

Study on flood risk of immovable cultural relics in Shanxi province

Journal of Natural Disasters, 202, 31(3): 35-47.]

[本文引用: 1]

郑洪波, 周友胜, 杨青, 等.

中国东部滨海平原新石器遗址的时空分布格局: 海平面变化控制下的地貌演化与人地关系

中国科学: 地球科学, 2018, 48(2): 127-137.

[本文引用: 1]

[ZHENG H B, ZHOU Y S, YANG Q, et al.

Spatial and temporal distribution pattern of Neolithic sites in the coastal plain of Eastern China: Geomorphic evolution and man-earth relationship under the control of sea level change

Science in China: Earth Sciences, 2018, 48(2): 127-137.]

[本文引用: 1]

刘文艳.

挑战与应对: 气候变化影响下的长城保护

自然与文化遗产研究, 2022, 7(4): 24-34.

[本文引用: 1]

[LIU W Y.

Challenges and responses: Great Wall protection under the impact of climate change

Natural and Cultural Heritage Research, 2022, 7(4): 24-34.]

[本文引用: 1]

张治国, 吕凤琳, 王涛, 等.

气候变化对遗址的影响与应对策略探讨: 以新疆地区为例

自然与文化遗产研究, 2022, 7(4): 12-23.

[本文引用: 1]

[ZHANG Z G, LYU F L, WANG T, et al.

Impacts of climate change on heritage sites and countermeasures: A case study of Xinjiang

Natural and Cultural Heritage Research, 2022, 7(4): 12-23.]

[本文引用: 1]

LAVELL A, OPPENHEIMER M, DIOP C, et al.

Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

2012: 25-64.

[本文引用: 1]

BROWN M F.

Heritage trouble: Recent work on the protection of intangible cultural property

International Journal of Cultural Property, 2005, 12(1): 40-61.

[本文引用: 1]

HENDERSON M, SEEKAMP E.

Battling the tides of climate change: The power of intangible cultural resource values to bind place meanings in vulnerable historic districts

Heritage, 2018, 1(2): 220-238.

DOI:10.3390/heritage1020015      URL     [本文引用: 1]

Climate change increases not only the vulnerability of cultural resources, but also the cultural values that are deeply embedded in cultural resources and landscapes. As such, heritage managers are faced with imminent preservation challenges that necessitate the consideration of place meanings during adaptation planning. This study explores how stakeholders perceive the vulnerability of the tangible aspects of cultural heritage, and how climate change impacts and adaptation strategies may alter the meanings and values that are held within those resources. We conducted semi-structured interviews with individuals with known connections to the historic buildings located within cultural landscapes on the barrier islands of Cape Lookout National Seashore in the United States (US). Our findings revealed that community members hold deep place connections, and that their cultural resource values are heavily tied to the concepts of place attachment (place identity and place dependence). Interviews revealed a general acceptance of the inevitability of climate impacts and a transition of heritage meanings from tangible resources to intangible values. Our findings suggest that in the context of climate change, it is important to consider place meanings alongside physical considerations for the planning and management of vulnerable cultural resources, affirming the need to involve community members and their intangible values into the adaptive planning for cultural resources.

HARKIN D, DAVIES M, HYSLOP E, et al.

Impacts of climate change on cultural heritage

MCCIP Science Review, 2020, 16: 24-39.

[本文引用: 1]

FORINO G, MACKEE J, VON MEDING J.

A proposed assessment index for climate change-related risk for cultural heritage protection in Newcastle (Australia)

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2016, 19: 235-248.

DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.09.003      URL     [本文引用: 1]

FAWZY S, OSMAN A I, DORAN J, et al.

Strategies for mitigation of climate change: A review

Environmental Chemistry Letters, 2020, 18(6): 2069-2094.

DOI:10.1007/s10311-020-01059-w      [本文引用: 2]

Climate change is defined as the shift in climate patterns mainly caused by greenhouse gas emissions from natural systems and human activities. So far, anthropogenic activities have caused about 1.0 °C of global warming above the pre-industrial level and this is likely to reach 1.5 °C between 2030 and 2052 if the current emission rates persist. In 2018, the world encountered 315 cases of natural disasters which are mainly related to the climate. Approximately 68.5 million people were affected, and economic losses amounted to $131.7 billion, of which storms, floods, wildfires and droughts accounted for approximately 93%. Economic losses attributed to wildfires in 2018 alone are almost equal to the collective losses from wildfires incurred over the past decade, which is quite alarming. Furthermore, food, water, health, ecosystem, human habitat and infrastructure have been identified as the most vulnerable sectors under climate attack. In 2015, the Paris agreement was introduced with the main objective of limiting global temperature increase to 2 °C by 2100 and pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C. This article reviews the main strategies for climate change abatement, namely conventional mitigation, negative emissions and radiative forcing geoengineering. Conventional mitigation technologies focus on reducing fossil-based CO2 emissions. Negative emissions technologies are aiming to capture and sequester atmospheric carbon to reduce carbon dioxide levels. Finally, geoengineering techniques of radiative forcing alter the earth’s radiative energy budget to stabilize or reduce global temperatures. It is evident that conventional mitigation efforts alone are not sufficient to meet the targets stipulated by the Paris agreement; therefore, the utilization of alternative routes appears inevitable. While various technologies presented may still be at an early stage of development, biogenic-based sequestration techniques are to a certain extent mature and can be deployed immediately.

SONG X, ZHANG Z, CHEN Y, et al.

Spatiotemporal changes of global Extreme Temperature Events (ETEs) since 1981 and the meteorological causes

Natural Hazards, 2014, 70(2): 975-994.

DOI:10.1007/s11069-013-0856-y      URL     [本文引用: 1]

DUNNE J P, STOUFFER R J, JOHN J G.

Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming

Nature Climate Change, 2013, 3(6): 563-566.

DOI:10.1038/nclimate1827      [本文引用: 1]

VICENTE-SERRANO S M, NIETO R, GIMENO L, et al.

Recent changes of relative humidity: Regional connections with land and ocean processes

Earth System Dynamics, 2018, 9(2): 915-937.

DOI:10.5194/esd-9-915-2018      URL     [本文引用: 1]

. We analyzed changes in surface relative humidity (RH) at the global scale from 1979 to 2014 using both observations and the ERA-Interim dataset. We compared the variability and trends in RH with those of land evapotranspiration and ocean evaporation in moisture source areas across a range of selected regions worldwide. The sources of moisture for each particular region were identified by integrating different observational data and model outputs into a Lagrangian approach. The aim was to account for the possible role of changes in air temperature over land, in comparison to sea surface temperature (SST), but also the role of land evapotranspiration and the ocean evaporation on RH variability. The results demonstrate that the patterns of the observed trends in RH at the global scale cannot be linked to a particular individual physical mechanism. Our results also stress that the different hypotheses that may explain the decrease in RH under a global warming scenario could act together to explain recent RH trends. Albeit with uncertainty in establishing a direct causality between RH trends and the different empirical moisture sources, we found that the observed decrease in RH in some regions can be linked to lower water supply from land evapotranspiration. In contrast, the empirical relationships also suggest that RH trends in other target regions are mainly explained by the dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms related to the moisture supply from the oceanic source regions. Overall, while this work gives insights into the connections between RH trends and oceanic and continental processes at the global scale, further investigation is still desired to assess the contribution of both dynamic and thermodynamic factors to the evolution of RH over continental regions.

LA SORTE F A, HORTON K G, NILSSON C, et al.

Projected changes in wind assistance under climate change for nocturnally migrating bird populations

Global Change Biology, 2019, 25(2): 589-601.

DOI:10.1111/gcb.14531      PMID:30537359      [本文引用: 1]

Current climate models and observations indicate that atmospheric circulation is being affected by global climate change. To assess how these changes may affect nocturnally migrating bird populations, we need to determine how current patterns of wind assistance at migration altitudes will be enhanced or reduced under future atmospheric conditions. Here, we use information compiled from 143 weather surveillance radars stations within the contiguous United States to estimate the daily altitude, density, and direction of nocturnal migration during the spring and autumn. We intersected this information with wind projections to estimate how wind assistance is expected to change during this century at current migration altitudes. The prevailing westerlies at midlatitudes are projected to increase in strength during spring migration and decrease in strength to a lesser degree during autumn migration. Southerly winds will increase in strength across the continent during both spring and autumn migration, with the strongest gains occurring in the center of the continent. Wind assistance is projected to increase across the central (0.44 m/s; 10.1%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.32 m/s; 9.6%) during spring migration, and wind assistance is projected to decrease within the central (0.32 m/s; 19.3%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.17 m/s; 6.6%) during autumn migration. Thus, across a broad portion of the continent where migration intensity is greatest, the efficiency of nocturnal migration is projected to increase in the spring and decrease in the autumn, potentially affecting time and energy expenditures for many migratory bird species. These findings highlight the importance of placing climate change projections within a relevant ecological context informed through empirical observations, and the need to consider the possibility that climate change may generate both positive and negative implications for natural systems.© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

SIMPSON I R, SHAW T A, SEAGER R.

A diagnosis of the seasonally and longitudinally varying midlatitude circulation response to global warming

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 71(7): 2489-2515.

DOI:10.1175/JAS-D-13-0325.1      URL     [本文引用: 1]

Zonal-mean or basin-mean analyses often conclude that the midlatitude circulation will undergo a poleward shift with global warming. In this study, the models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project are used to provide a detailed examination of midlatitude circulation change as a function of longitude and season. The two-dimensional vertically integrated momentum budget is used to identify the dominant terms that maintain the anomalous surface wind stress, thereby allowing a distinction between features that are maintained by high-frequency eddies and those that involve changes in the lower-frequency or stationary flow.

CHOU C, LAN C W.

Changes in the annual range of precipitation under global warming

Journal of Climate, 2012, 25(1): 222-235.

DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00097.1      URL     [本文引用: 1]

The annual range of precipitation, which is the difference between maximum and minimum precipitation within a year, is examined in climate model simulations under global warming. For global averages, the annual range of precipitation tends to increase as the globe warms. On a regional basis, this enhancement is found over most areas of the world, except for the bands along 30°S and 30°N. The enhancement in the annual range of precipitation is mainly associated with larger upward trends of maximum precipitation and smaller upward trends or downward trends of minimum precipitation. Based on the moisture budget analysis, the dominant mechanism is vertical moisture advection, both on a global average and on a regional scale. The vertical moisture advection, moisture convergence induced by vertical motion, includes the thermodynamic component, which is associated with increased water vapor, and the dynamic component, which is associated with changes in circulation. Generally, the thermodynamic component enhances the annual range of precipitation, while the dynamic component tends to reduce it. Evaporation has a positive contribution to both maximum and minimum precipitation, but very little to the annual range of precipitation. Even though evaporation and horizontal moisture advection are small for a global average, they could be important on a regional basis.

TRENBERTH K E.

Changes in precipitation with climate change

Climate Research, 2011, 47(1-2): 123-138.

DOI:10.3354/cr00953      URL     [本文引用: 1]

TRENBERTH K E, DAI A, RASMUSSEN R M, et al.

The changing character of precipitation

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2003, 84(9): 1205-1218.

DOI:10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205      URL     [本文引用: 1]

From a societal, weather, and climate perspective, precipitation intensity, duration, frequency, and phase are as much of concern as total amounts, as these factors determine the disposition of precipitation once it hits the ground and how much runs off. At the extremes of precipitation incidence are the events that give rise to floods and droughts, whose changes in occurrence and severity have an enormous impact on the environment and society. Hence, advancing understanding and the ability to model and predict the character of precipitation is vital but requires new approaches to examining data and models. Various mechanisms, storms and so forth, exist to bring about precipitation. Because the rate of precipitation, conditional on when it falls, greatly exceeds the rate of replenishment of moisture by surface evaporation, most precipitation comes from moisture already in the atmosphere at the time the storm begins, and transport of moisture by the storm-scale circulation into the storm is vital. Hence, the intensity of precipitation depends on available moisture, especially for heavy events. As climate warms, the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, which is governed by the Clausius–Clapeyron equation, is expected to rise much faster than the total precipitation amount, which is governed by the surface heat budget through evaporation. This implies that the main changes to be experienced are in the character of precipitation: increases in intensity must be offset by decreases in duration or frequency of events. The timing, duration, and intensity of precipitation can be systematically explored via the diurnal cycle, whose correct simulation in models remains an unsolved challenge of vital importance in global climate change. Typical problems include the premature initiation of convection, and precipitation events that are too light and too frequent. These challenges in observations, modeling, and understanding precipitation changes are being taken up in the NCAR “Water Cycle Across Scales” initiative, which will exploit the diurnal cycle as a test bed for a hierarchy of models to promote improvements in models.

OHUNAKIN O S, ADARAMOLA M S, OYEWOLA O M, et al.

The effect of climate change on solar radiation in Nigeria

Solar Energy, 2015, 116: 272-286.

DOI:10.1016/j.solener.2015.03.027      URL     [本文引用: 1]

MATYSSEK R, WIESER G, CALFAPIETRA C, et al.

Forests under climate change and air pollution: Gaps in understanding and future directions for research

Environmental Pollution, 2012, 160: 57-65.

DOI:10.1016/j.envpol.2011.07.007      PMID:22035926      [本文引用: 1]

Forests in Europe face significant changes in climate, which in interaction with air quality changes, may significantly affect forest productivity, stand composition and carbon sequestration in both vegetation and soils. Identified knowledge gaps and research needs include: (i) interaction between changes in air quality (trace gas concentrations), climate and other site factors on forest ecosystem response, (ii) significance of biotic processes in system response, (iii) tools for mechanistic and diagnostic understanding and upscaling, and (iv) the need for unifying modelling and empirical research for synthesis. This position paper highlights the above focuses, including the global dimension of air pollution as part of climate change and the need for knowledge transfer to enable reliable risk assessment. A new type of research site in forest ecosystems ("supersites") will be conducive to addressing these gaps by enabling integration of experimentation and modelling within the soil-plant-atmosphere interface, as well as further model development.Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FUZZI S, BALTENSPERGER U, CARSLAW K, et al.

Particulate matter, air quality and climate: Lessons learned and future needs

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2015, 15(14): 8217-8299.

[本文引用: 1]

尹彩春, 赵文武, 李琰, 等.

气候系统中临界转变的研究进展与展望

地球科学进展, 2021, 36(12): 1313-1323.

[本文引用: 1]

气候系统属于复杂系统，可以存在双（多）稳态。当系统的控制参数处于临界点附近时，控制参数的微小变化或者外界施加的微小干扰，可能导致系统状态由一种稳态不可逆地突变到另一种稳态，发生临界转变。系统梳理了气候系统中临界转变的基础理论和主要研究内容，探讨了其研究态势，并提出了现有研究存在的问题和重点研究方向。结果表明：①现有研究内容主要聚焦于不同时空尺度气候子系统的临界转变现象及其研究方法、临界转变的驱动因素和形成机制、临界转变的早期预警信号及其检测方法；②气候系统中临界转变的研究表现出以尺度拓展、学科交叉、级联效应、综合集成和人类响应等为主要特点的研究态势；③现有研究存在的问题包括：基础概念的认知和使用有待统一和规范，数据可获取性和定量分析模型的准确性有待提升，临界转变及其潜在气候风险研究有待深化；④我国未来的研究应重点关注临界转变与我国关键生态安全屏障、区域发展格局以及人类安全与福祉的关系等领域。

[YIN C C, ZHAO W W, LI Y, et al.

Research progress and prospects of critical transitions in climate systems

Advances in Earth Science, 201, 36(12): 1313-1323.]

[本文引用: 1]

MOTTERSHEAD D, GORBUSHINA A, LUCAS G, et al.

The influence of marine salts, aspect and microbes in the weathering of sandstone in two historic structures

Building and Environment, 2003, 38(9-10): 1193-1204.

DOI:10.1016/S0360-1323(03)00071-4      URL     [本文引用: 1]

CHEN X, BAI F, HUANG J, et al.

The organisms on rock cultural heritages: Growth and weathering

Geoheritage, 2021, 13(3): 56, Doi: 10.1007/s12371-021-00588-2.

[本文引用: 1]

HUSSEIN A S, EL-SHISHINY H.

Influences of wind flow over heritage sites: A case study of the wind environment over the Giza Plateau in Egypt

Environmental Modelling & Software, 2009, 24(3): 389-410.

[本文引用: 1]

SONG B, GALASSO C, GARCIANO L.

Wind-uplift fragility analysis of roof sheathing for cultural heritage assets in the Philippines

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2020, 51: 101753, Doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101753.

URL     [本文引用: 1]

SITZIA F, LISCI C, MIRÃO J.

Accelerate ageing on building stone materials by simulating daily, seasonal thermo-hygrometric conditions and solar radiation of CSA Mediterranean climate

Construction and Building Materials, 2021, 266: 121009, Doi: 10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2020.121009.

URL     [本文引用: 1]

MURGUL V.

Solar energy systems in the reconstruction of heritage historical buildings of the northern towns (for example Saint-Petersburg)

Journal of Applied Engineering Science, 2014, 12(2): 121-128.

DOI:10.5937/jaes12-6136      URL     [本文引用: 1]

BONEBRAKE T C, MASTRANDREA M D.

Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts

PNAS, 2010, 107(28): 12581-12586.

DOI:10.1073/pnas.0911841107      PMID:20616038      [本文引用: 1]

Global patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in high-latitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.

EZCURRA P, RIVERA-COLLAZO I C.

An assessment of the impacts of climate change on Puerto Rico's cultural heritage with a case study on sea-level rise

Journal of Cultural Heritage, 2018, 32: 198-209.

DOI:10.1016/j.culher.2018.01.016      URL     [本文引用: 1]

BLOCKEN B, CARMELIET J.

A review of wind-driven rain research in building science

Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 2004, 92(13): 1079-1130.

DOI:10.1016/j.jweia.2004.06.003      URL     [本文引用: 1]

CHELAZZI D, POGGI G, JAIDAR Y, et al.

Hydroxide nanoparticles for cultural heritage: Consolidation and protection of wall paintings and carbonate materials

Journal of Colloid and Interface Science, 2013, 392: 42-49.

DOI:S0021-9797(12)01115-0      PMID:23123031      [本文引用: 1]

Colloids and Material Science are nowadays providing innovative and effective technological solutions in a wide range of applicative fields. In the last decade, nanomaterials have been specifically designed to ensure the long-term restoration and preservation of movable and immovable artworks. The main tasks to address by conservation scientists concern the cleaning, the deacidification and the consolidation of different kinds of artistic substrates. The aim of the present contribution is to provide an up-to-date overview on the synthesis and preparation of colloidal systems tailored to the consolidation and protection of wall paintings, plasters and stones, highlighting the most recent improvements. Two case studies, widely representative of typical consolidation problems, are presented, i.e. the preservation of wall paintings belonging to a Mesoamerican archeological site and the consolidation of two Italian Renaissance buildings.Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DE LA FUENTE D, VEGA J M, VIEJO F, et al.

Mapping air pollution effects on atmospheric degradation of cultural heritage

Journal of Cultural Heritage, 2013, 14(2): 138-145.

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JIGYASU R.

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论地方政府在非物质文化遗产保护利用中的角色定位: 以江西省域为个案的分析

江汉论坛, 2013, (10): 115-121.

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[WANG J, ZHANG Y G.

On the role positioning of local governments in the protection and utilization of intangible cultural heritage: A case study of Jiangxi province

Jianghan Forum, 2013, (10): 115-121.]

[本文引用: 1]

CARMICHAEL B, WILSON G, NAMARNYILK I, et al.

A methodology for the assessment of climate change adaptation options for cultural heritage sites

Climate, 2020, 8(8): 88, Doi: 10.3390/cli8080088.

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Cultural sites are particularly important to Indigenous peoples, their identity, cosmology and sociopolitical traditions. The benefits of local control, and a lack of professional resources, necessitate the development of planning tools that support independent Indigenous cultural site adaptation. We devised and tested a methodology for non-heritage professionals to analyse options that address site loss, build site resilience and build local adaptive capacity. Indigenous rangers from Kakadu National Park and the Djelk Indigenous Protected Area, Arnhem Land, Australia, were engaged as fellow researchers via a participatory action research methodology. Rangers rejected coastal defences and relocating sites, instead prioritising routine use of a risk field survey, documentation of vulnerable sites using new digital technologies and widely communicating the climate change vulnerability of sites via a video documentary. Results support the view that rigorous approaches to cultural site adaptation can be employed independently by local Indigenous stakeholders.

刘佳雪.

基于利益相关者理论的低碳旅游发展研究

南京晓庄学院学报, 2015, (3): 91-95.

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[LIU J X.

Research on low-carbon tourism development based on stakeholder theory

Journal of Nanjing Xiaozhuang University, 2015, (3): 91-95.]

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GRAŽULEVIČIŪTĖ I.

Cultural heritage in the context of sustainable development

Environmental Research, Engineering & Management, 2006, 37(3): 74-79.

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