JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 358-370.doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20200209

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Climate change and future trends in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Northern China: The comprehensive analysis with the historical observation and the model simulation

FANG Zi-hang1,2, HE Chun-yang1,2, LIU Zhi-feng1,2, ZHAO Yuan-yuan3, YANG Yan-jie1,2   

  1. 1. Center for Human-Environment System Sustainability, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    2. School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    3. School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2018-12-26 Revised:2019-02-18 Online:2020-02-28 Published:2020-02-28

Abstract: The Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Northern China (APTZNC) is one of the major regions of the ecological protection in China due to its sensitivity to climate change. Our objective was to understand the trend of the climate change in the APTZNC. The historical climate change from 1971 to 2015 and the future climate change from 2006 to 2050 in the APTZNC were analyzed by using the historical data and the simulated data. The climate change in the APTZNC showed a warm-dry trend from 1971 to 2005, with the annual average temperature rise by 0.39 ℃/10 a and the annual average precipitation decrease by 4.60 mm/10 a. From 2006 to 2050, the regional climate change will show a warm-humid trend. The annual average temperature will increase by 0.20-0.50 ℃/10 a, and the annual precipitation will increase by 1.49-15.59 mm/10 a. We also found that the regional climate system will be unstable if the greenhouse gas emissions were not controlled. From 2006 to 2050, along with the increase of greenhouse gas emission concentration, the regional warming rate will increase from 0.25 ℃/10 a to 0.48 ℃/10 a, and the precipitation change rate will increase from 3.97 mm/10 a to 14.58 mm/10 a. Therefore, we suggested that effective measures for mitigation and adaptation to the climate change are needed to guarantee the sustainable development of the APTZNC.

Key words: Argo-Pastoral Transitional Zone in Northern China, model simulation, mitigation and adaptation, climate change, historical observation