• 2015 Volume 30 Issue 1
    Published: 20 January 2015

  • Select all
  • CAO Zhi, MIN Qing-wen, LIU Mou-cheng, BAI Yan-ying
    Download PDF ( ) HTML ( )   Knowledge map   Save
    With the rapid development of technology and economy recently, environmental issues have presented globally and regionally, absorbing more academic attentions on the relationship between humans and nature. Ecological carrying capacity, one of the theories on this issue, reflects the extent of nature withstanding human activities, and is instructive to mitigate environmental problems and achieve sustainable development. However, compared with resources carrying capacity and environmental carrying capacity appeared before, ecological carrying capacity is more complex and integrated, and is one of the most sophisticated topics in ecology. Nowadays, the research of ecological carrying capacity mostly focuses on assessing the degree of regional sustainable development, which deviates from the original research purpose of carrying capacity, the limits of growths. Meanwhile, attempting to solve all the problems in the process of regional development, such as resources crisis, environmental pollution, ecological degradation, and so on, ecological carrying capacity becomes the research tool of research regional" natural-social-economic"complex system, which can be understood as regional carrying capacity. This paper analyzes the connotation of ecological carrying capacity in the view of ecosystem, and researches ecological carrying capacity from the perspective of ecosystem services, returning to the limits to growths, the original research purpose of carrying capacity. Based on review related papers, this paper proposes the concept and assessment model of Ecosystem- Service-based Ecological Carrying Capacity (ESECC) with"ecosystem-ecosystem services- the scale of population and economy (carrying capacity)"as its main line. ESECC is the population and the scale of the economy supported by ecosystem services which is determined by ecological structures, processes and spatial pattern. And ESECC can be acquired by selecting the minimum from all the carrying capacities of every ecosystem service closely related to human beings as regional ecological carrying capacity. In order to choose the types of ecosystem services, this paper classifies ecosystem services into direct ecosystem services and indirect ecosystem services on the principle of the degree of relationship between mankind's activities and ecosystem services firstly, and the first is the types of ecosystem services in ESECC assessment model. Then, based on consumable characteristic of ecosystem services, direct ecosystem services is classified into consumable-direct ecosystem services and inconsumable- direct ecosystem services, and limiting factor in ESECC assessment model mostly includes the first one. Thirdly, according to the usage of ecosystem services currently, this paper chooses seven consumable-direct ecosystem services to assessment ESECC, including food supply, biomaterial supply, core wood supply, freshwater supply, sewage purification, waste gas absorbability, and solid waste accommodation. In the fourth section of this paper, the assessment model is applied to Honghe County, Yunnan Province.
  • LIU Bin, SUN Yan-ling, WANG Zhong-liang, ZHAO Tian-bao
    Download PDF ( ) HTML ( )   Knowledge map   Save
    Climate change and human activities are the main influencing factors for vegetation cover change and their relative role in vegetation cover change has been the hot point in related researches. Spatial and temporal vegetation cover change in North China was analyzed using methods of trend analysis, residual analysis and relative role analysis based on the GIMMS NDVI and meteorological data from 1981 to 2006. At the same time, the relative role of climate change and human activities in the process of vegetation cover change of North China from 1981 to 2006 was assessed in this study. We found that the vegetation was recovering well in the whole North China. North China vegetation cover showed an increasing trend and its growth rate has been 0.009/10 a from 1981 to 2006. However, there was an obvious spatial distribution between regions and the proportion of the greening area (25.14%) was smaller than the proportion of the degraded area (27.77%), which indicated that the situation of ecological environment of North China was still not optimistic. The vegetation cover change in North China was correlated with aridity index and annual mean temperature. During the years from 1981 to 2006, the vegetation cover change in North China had a significantly negative correlation with aridity index (r=-0.682), and the correlation between the vegetation cover change and annual mean temperature was significantly positive (r=0.438), which meant that climate change was an important factor driving vegetation cover change. In addition, human activities were also important causes resulting in vegetation cover change. Human activities'roles were always overwhelmingly dominant in the increased area and the decreased area of vegetation cover in North China from 1981 to 2006. The role of human activities was larger than that of climate change in the increased area of vegetation cover (they were 68.10% and 31.90% separately), yet the role of human activities came up to 71.88% in the decreased area of vegetation cover, while the role of climate change amounted to 28.12%. Besides, the relative role of climate change and human activities varied at different spatial scales in the process of vegetation cover change of North China. In the increased area of vegetation cover, the areas mainly induced by human activities are distributed in the east of Hinggan League, Xilingol League, the west of Chifeng, Hetao Plain, the northwest of Shanxi Province and the south area of Hohhot and Baotou; however, the areas mainly induced by climate change included the south of Hebei Province and the vicinity of Horqin Right Wing Middle Banner. In the decreased area of vegetation cover, the areas mainly induced by human activities are widely distributed in the middle and northeast of Hebei Province, the north area of Baotou and Hohhot, the central-south of Hulun Buir, Alxa Left Banner and the vicinity of Wuhai; however, the areas mainly induced by climate change are sporadically distributed in the Alxa Right Banner and the vicinity of Manzhouli City.
  • Batunacun, HU Yun-feng, Biligejifu, LIU Ji-yuan, ZHEN Lin
    Download PDF ( ) HTML ( )   Knowledge map   Save
    Understanding the spatial distribution and variety of grass species in the Mongolian Plateau is very important for both the general biodiversity research and the region's sustainable development. However, due to many parctical difficulites, such as the vast territory, national border division, language barrier and hard field conditions, little studies have been done on the grass specie diversity in an expansive area in this plateau. In the summer of 2012, an ecological transect from Ulan Bator of Mongolia to Xilinhot of China was selected, and a series of grass sampling sites and sampling quadrats along this transect were investigated in detail. Based on the field survey, the spatial distributions and varieties of grass species along the transect were analyzed. The result turns out: 1) 103 grass species belonging to 33 families were identified. Specifically, 87 species belonging to 29 families are in Mongolia territory and 62 species belonging to 22 families are in Inner Mongolia territory of China. Although the absolute number of grass species, edible grass and perennial grass in Inner Mongolia are less than those in Mongolia, the relative indices, including the specie numbers per vertical hundred meters, specie numbers per horizontal hundred kilometers, the ratio of the edible grass specie in total species, and the ratio of the perennial grass specie in total species, are higher in Inner Mongolia than those in Mongolia. 2) The numbers of grass species along the transect present the "U" shape, i. e. number of species is higher in the northern and the southern parts, and lower in the middle part of the transect. 3) From the north to the south, the number of gramineal grass ascends, and the number of grass in composite family descends. The numbers of grass in leguminosae family and other forbs present the"U"shape. The numbers of perennial plants and edible grass also show as the "U" shape, while the number of therophtye grass appears the inverted "U" shape, and the number of non-edible grass changes smoothly along the transect.
  • WANG Min, XIAO Jian-hong, YU Qing-dong, LIU Juan
    Download PDF ( ) HTML ( )   Knowledge map   Save
    The economic values and losses evaluation models on reservoir dam construction were constructed by direct market method (market value method), surrogate market method (such as opportunity cost method, shadow project method, shadow price method and prevention expenditure method) and simulation market method (contingent valuation method). Then the evaluation models of eco-compensation standard (ECS) were established. Finally the ECS of the Three Gorges Project (TGP) construction was evaluated. The results show that: 1) flood control, hydropower product and environmental benefits of hydropower were the main functions of TGP, which occupied 23.64%, 46.84% and 25.31% of the total economic values respectively. The reservoir sedimentation and reservoir inundation were the main negative effects of TGP, which occupied 62.78% and 13.17% of the total economic losses respectively. 2) The six positive effects'economic values of TGP in total was 452.00×108 yuan/a. The sum of ten negative effects'economic losses of TGP was 87.62×108 yuan/a. Six schemes of ECS were proposed on the premise of choosing and identifying eco-compensation subjects and objects, while considering the economic benefits of eco-compensation subjects. In the six schemes, the hydropower development owner and central-local government were the main eco-compensation subjects. The river ecosystem and resettlements were the main eco-compensation objects. The research suggests that the sixth scheme should be recommended currently with the ECS being 60.99×108 yuan/a.
  • SUN Xiao-dong, FENG Xue-gang
    Download PDF ( ) HTML ( )   Knowledge map   Save
    Due to different tourism resources, economy development, geographical locations, cultural backgrounds and infrastructure conditions, Chinese regional tourism economic shows a quite different development pattern. Based on single evaluation index, a large amount of literature has explored the spatiotemporal differences of Chinese tourism development. However, few studies, from multiple criteria prospects, have discussed issues of regional difference and provincial similarity of development of Chinese tourism economy. Firstly, taking four indicators, including number of internal tourist, number of inbound tourist, internal tourism income, foreign exchange income, as aggregate criterion, the other two indicators, including percentage of the total tourism income accounted for the GDP and percentage of the tourism employment accounted for the total employment in each province, as efficiency criterion, this paper establishes a combined multi-criteria index to measure the similarity of provincial tourism development in China. Then, based on the derived similarity degrees, a neighbor-searching clustering algorithm is applied to cluster the 31 provinces in China. Based on data of the six indicators from 2000 and 2010 respectively, the spatiotemporal cluster results are explored and compared. The results show that, provinces with higher tourism development level usually have lower average similarities to other provinces, which, to some extent, reflects a"polarization phenomenon" in development of Chinese tourism economy. Although tourism development at the provincial level has significant differences, when considering the six major economic indicators some provinces have high similarity degrees. Spatial cluster shows the pattern of coastal provinces, inland provinces and west provinces, which doesn't strictly follow the geographical adjacent location distribution. Comparison of the studies on 2000 and 2010 data shows that, with great development nationwide, tourism development in China presents a more balanced clustering results; the middle, the west and the remote provinces have a significantly reduced average in-class similarity degrees from 2000 to 2010, which reports the phenomenon that through utilization of unique tourism resources, these provinces promoted their tourism economy in different modes.
  • ZHOU Yu-xi, GE Yan-xiang, ZHOU Xia
    Download PDF ( ) HTML ( )   Knowledge map   Save
    Optimizing and maximally utilizing water resources are key issues of water resource management. The agriculture- to- urban water transfer has diverse features in different spatial and temporal scales, and the effect of influencing factors changes variously on different scales. In this study, nine factors influencing agriculture- to- urban water utilization are chosen, and their degrees of influence are analyzed by using ridge regression based on provincial panel data from 2003 to 2010. The result shows that the degree and direction of each factors influencing on the agriculture-to-urban transfer are not entirely consistent at different spatial and temporal scales. From the aspect of time scale, the industrial structure transformation and the degree of urbanization are always the main factors, and the comprehensive impact is 0.53. As time goes on, the effects of different factors show great diversity. From the aspect of space scale, the industrial restructuring and the level of urbanization have significant positive impacts on the national scale, which are 0.32 and 0.21 respectively. In highly water shortage areas, the factors having extremely positive impacts include the industrial structure transformation, eco-environment improvement, irrigation saving rate and per capita water resources. In serious water shortage areas, the positive effects of factors are not very different. In medium water deficient areas, the industrial structure transformation is the major driver, and its impact is 0.56. The minor water deficient areas are influenced mainly by industrial structure transformation, urbanization, effective irrigation rate, population and irrigation saving rate. The key factors in the water resources abundant regions are GDP, urbanization and water using comparative income. From the temporal and spatial scales, the change of comparison income of utilization in water resources is a major constraint factor. It is not completely same of each factor's driving directions to water transfers in different areas and times.
  • GAI Mei, HAO Hui-juan, KE Li-na, TIAN Cheng-shi
    Download PDF ( ) HTML ( )   Knowledge map   Save
    Water shortage has become a bottleneck to restrict the sustainable development of China's economy, especially in the Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt (LCEB). So the research on marginal effect of water resources is important and necessary for the sustainable development of LCEB. The theory of marginal effect is the cornerstone of this paper. To quantitatively analyze the impact of water resources on the regional output value based the three industries, the paper took water resource as the factors of production. And, in this study, the Cobb-Douglas function was employed in the computation of marginal revenues of water in LCEB over the period of 2002-2011. The results indicated that, in 2002-2011, the marginal effect of three industries increased year after year, and the marginal effects of agriculture, industry and the tertiary industry water was 4.11, 82.30 and 154.93 yuan/m3 respectively. The marginal effect of agriculture water was significantly less than that of industry and the tertiary industry water. Due to the different nature of the three industries, their influence factors are abundant and varied. To investigate the key factors of marginal effect for water resources, multiple linear regression model was built based on the results. Our model showed that the influence factors exactly revealed the impact of marginal effect of water resources, and the factors had both positive and negative effects. The results showed that: the factors that affected agricultural water were the water consumption of agricultural output value per ten thousand yuan, the influence of government, the yield per unit area, and the amount of fertilizer consumption; the factors affected marginal effect of industry were the water consumption of industrial output value per ten thousand yuan, the amount of industrial wastewater emission, the influence of government, and the degree of market demand; the factors affect marginal effect of the tertiary industrial water were the water consumption of the tertiary industry output value per ten thousand yuan, the level of urbanization, the influence of government, and park green area per capita.
  • YANG Xian-ming, JIAO Hua-fu, XU Ji-li
    Download PDF ( ) HTML ( )   Knowledge map   Save
    By comparing the urban spatial expansion processes of Huainan and Huaibei since they were established, the paper analyzes their differences in evolution processes, characteristics and influence factors. The results show that: the form of the coal resource-based city usually is more dispersed. They usually follow the processes from relative compact to scattered and finally compact again, and share the characteristics of expending along the traffic lines. They generally experience four stages—enclave expansion stage, axial extension stage, inner filling stage and regional reconstruction stage. But they have differences in the urban scale, expansion speed and expansion intensity during different stages. However they are similar in the internal spatial structure changes, that three kinds of land-uses, including industrial district, residential area, commercial and public facilities land, expand more quickly than others. The internal space reconstruction began in 1980s and has become more seriously since then. The residential area's replacing industrial district, and commercial and public facilities land's replacing residential area are main forms of the internal space reconstruction. We think the resource endowment, mining area construction,topographic and geological conditions, transportation, technological progress, city function and city planning should affect the coal resource- based cities' spatial structure equally.
  • ZHU Chang-ming, LI Jun-li, ZHANG Xin, LUO Jian-cheng
    Download PDF ( ) HTML ( )   Knowledge map   Save
    Lake is regarded as a"evaporating dish"in the arid area. It is an indicator and very sensitive to the regional eco-environmental change. The variation of lake water resources objectively records the process of regional hydrologic change effects by climate change and human activities. This reflected the water balance in a basin. So, timely and accurately get lake water resources change information (e.g. lake area, lake level and water volume) is very important for understanding regional and global environmental change. And that will be useful to regional water resources management, planning and policy development. To further understand the lake spatio-temporal changes process in arid area under the background of global warming, this paper selected the largest inland freshwater lake (the Bosten Lake) in arid China as study area, and used multi- source remote sensing data, macroscopically, dynamically and continuously monitored the Bosten Lake area, water level and capacity change information in recent 40 years. Firstly, through the Landsat and CBERS satellite imagery, we extracted the lake area information since 1972. And then, the lake level information was retrieved from the ICESat/ GLAS laser point data. Thirdly, the water volume is calculated by the water level and the lake basin DEM data. Fourthly, the Bosten Lake"area- level- volume"relationship model is constructed. Finally, through the"area-level-volume"relationship model, we digitally reconstructed the change process of the Bosten hydrologic information in the nearly 40 years. On that basis, we analyzed the characteristics of the Bosten hydrologic information spatio-temporal changes from the aspect of water level, lake area and water volume and explored the driving force of the lake water resource changes. The results show that: the change tendency of the Bosten Lake water resources is in diminishing on the whole. But different historical periods have different change characteristics. The whole change process can be divided into three stages. 1) The year 1972- 1990 is the Bosten Lake shrinking stage. In this stage, lake area shrank, water level dropped and water volume reduced steadily. In year 1990, the decreasing reached the bottom, the lowest water level is 1045.32 m and the minimum lake area is 908.12 km2. 2) The year 1990-2002 is the Bosten Lake significant expansion stage. In this stage, the Bosten Lake experienced water level rise, area expansion and the amount of lake water storage increased. In 2000, it reached the peak. The largest area is 1210.68 km2, the highest level is 1048.5 m, the biggest water storage is about 90×108 m3. 3) The year 2002-2010 is the Bosten Lake shrinking stage. Since 2002, the lake area, water level and water storage present continuous downward trend. Compared with 2002 and 2009, the lake water level declined 3.3 m and water quantity reduced 38.56%. That is the result of supply balance of regional water resources. The driving force of lake resource changes is not only climate fluctuations, but also human activities. In the short term, human activities are the mainly affecting factors of the Bosten water resource change. And the human activities interference is growing.
  • SU Xiao-ling, SONG Yue, NIU Ji-ping, ZHONG Feng
    Download PDF ( ) HTML ( )   Knowledge map   Save
    Potential evapotranspiration (ET0) is a key to estimate crop water requirements and base to make irrigation schedule. Sensitivity analysis is crucial in assessing the impact of climatic variables on ET0 estimations. In this study, observed daily climatic data from 1961 to 2011 at four meteorological stations located in Jinghuiqu Irrigation District were used. Daily ET0 was estimated with the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation. The trends in climate variables were detected by using Mann-Kendall test. A non- dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict responses of ET0 to four climatic variables. Sensitivity and relative variation rate of climate variables were used to attribute ET0 variation. The results showed that statistically significant decreasing trends in wind and daily sunshine duration and significant increasing trends in air temperature were observed. Relative humidity has a significant decreasing trend in the southern and southeastern irrigation districts and an insignificant increasing trend in the western and northeastern irrigation districts. Mean daily sensitivity coefficients for relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed and air temperature in the district were -0.77, 0.41, 0.16 and 0.08, respectively. In general, relative humidity was the most sensitive variable, followed by solar radiation, wind speed and air temperature. The change of ET0 is primarily attributed to the significant decrease of wind and solar radiation.
  • WANG Wei-dong, ZHANG Guo-fei, LI Zhong-qin
    Download PDF ( ) HTML ( )   Knowledge map   Save
    Urumqi Glacier No.1 is located at the headwaters of the Urumqi River in eastern Tianshan, it is one of the ten reference glaciers around the world in World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). It is considered as a key element of the system because of its special geographical position in arid Central Asia. As a reference glacier in the WGMS glacier monitoring network, it provides the longest glaciological and climatological monitoring record in China. Equilibrium line altitude (ELA) is defined as the altitude where the annual mass balance is zero. Glacier behaviors such as advancing or retreating are controlled by ELA variations, and fluctuations of ELA provide an important indicator of glacier response to climate change. In practice, the ELA is a narrow zonal area, and not very easy to be identified on the glacier surface, therefore, the determination of ELA is mainly done based on the contour map of the annual mass balance of the whole glacier. This paper, based on ELA data of Urumqi Glacier No.1 during 1959-2010, studies the changing process and characteristics of ELA. The results show that ELA experienced three phases during the whole observation period. ELA presented a slow ascending trend in a normal fluctuation range before 1986, with a mean of 4051 m a.s.l; it descended slowly from 1986 to 1996, with a mean of 4035 m, however, it ascended promptly since 1997, with a mean of 4125 m. In 2010, the highest ELA was observed which surpassed the glacier summit, implying that the whole glacier was ablating in this year. During the study period, ELA range was between 3948 m and 4484 m, with a mean of 4067 m, and the general tendency was ascending continually, ascended about 90 m. Accumulation area ratio (AAR) as an important indicators of the ELA change showed obvious decreasing trend, descended by 17%. Analysis shows mass balance and ELA has significant negative correlation. When mass balance decreased by 100 mm, ELA would ascend 17 m and glacier ELA was in a steady state, namely zero ELA (ELA0) would be 4018 m. As the net ablation increases, ELA shows an ascending trend. Data analysis shows when net ablation increased 10×104 m3, ELA would ascend 14 m. Analytical results of the ELA sensitivity response to climate change suggest that every 1 ℃ summer temperature increase would lead to 82 m ELA ascendance, and ELA would descend 41 m when annual precipitation increased 100 mm. According to the difference of ELA sensitivity in response to summer temperature and precipitation, ELA ascendance was controlled mainly by summer temperature.
  • YING Yu-qi, XIANG Ting-ting, LI Yong-fu, WU Jia-sen, JIANG Pei-kun
    Download PDF ( ) HTML ( )   Knowledge map   Save
    In this study, seven tree species including broad-leaved forest, coniferous forest, and bamboo forest in subtropical China were selected as experimental materials. The phytolith in the plants was extracted through a microwave digestion method and the phytolith occluded carbon (PhytOC) concentrations in the leaves were determined. The results showed that: 1) all the seven tree species had the potential of carbon bio-sequestration within phytoliths. The PhytOC concentrations in dry leaf biomass of different tree species were in the following order: Phyllostachys pubescens (3.31 ± 0.53 g·kg-1) > Liquidambar formosana (1.12 ± 0.33 g·kg-1) > Cyclobalanopsis glaua (0.88 ± 0.09 g·kg-1) > Schima superba (0.49 ± 0.18 g·kg-1) > Pinus massoniana (0.40 ± 0.11 g·kg-1) > Cunninghamia lanceolata (0.30 ± 0.06 g·kg-1) > Castanopsis sclerophylla (0.19 ± 0.04 g·kg-1). 2) There were strong linear relationships between Si concentrations and phytolith concentrations (P<0.05, R2=0.9897), phytolith concentrations and PhytOC concentrations in the leaf dry weight (P<0.05, R2=0.8816), PhytOC concentrations in phytoliths and PhytOC in the leaf dry weight (P<0.05, R2=0.3544). 3) Phyllostachys pubescens had the highest PhytOC fluxes (0.0506 t-e-CO2·hm-2·a-1), bio-sequestration via phytolith carbon from leaf-litter under 3.87×106 hm2 of Phyllostachys pubescens stands in subtropical China is estimated to be about 1.96×105 t CO2. 4) The phytoliths carbon bio- sequestration flux of Cunninghamia lanceolata and Pinus massoniana were 0.0056 and 0.0108 t-e-CO2·hm-2·a-1, respectively, bio-sequestration via phytolith carbon from leaf-litter under 1.13×107 and 1.20×107 hm2 of Cunninghamia lanceolata and Pinus massoniana stands is estimated to be about about 6.33×104 and 1.30 × 105t CO2, respectively. 5) The phytoliths carbon bio- sequestration flux of broadleaved forests ranged from 0.0005 to 0.0193 t-e-CO2·hm-2, bio-sequestration via phytolith carbon from leaf-litter under 2.49×107 hm2 of broad-leaved forests in subtropical China is estimated to be about 1.25×104-48.15×104 t CO2.
  • LIAO Hong-kai, LI Juan, LONG Jian, LIU Ling-fei, YANG Hua, ZHANG Wen-juan
    Download PDF ( ) HTML ( )   Knowledge map   Save
    Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the main medium for carbon migration in karst terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the change of SOC in different land use patterns will help us find out the carbon sequestration potential in karst area. In our study, SOC and aggregate-associated SOC were explored under five typical land use patterns (shrub land, vegetable land, paddy field, corn field, and abandoned land) at the 0-10, 10-20 and 20-30 cm depth, respectively, in Karst mountain area. We also discussed the relationship between land use and aggregate-associated SOC based on between-within classes PCA in the study area. Results showed that marcosized aggregate was the dominant fraction in soils under different land use patterns, and the contribution rate of > 2 mm aggregate was more than 70% to the total soil mass. The concentrations of SOC and aggregate associated- SOC sharply decreased with depth, which ranged from 15.1- 38.0 and 15.4-40.3 g· kg-1, respectively. The highest SOC concentrations in whole soil and different aggregate fractions were basically found in paddy soil, followed by shrub and vegetable land, and were the lowest in grassland abandoned for three year. The between- within classes PCA result showed that, the cumulative effects of SOC, and aggregated associated-SOC under different land use patterns decreased following the order of paddy field, vegetable land, shrub land, grassland abandoned for 15 year, corn field, and grassland abandoned for three year. This suggests that paddy can be treated as an important land use pattern for long-term SOC sequestration in karst region of southwestern China. Compared to corn field, the SOC pool decreased by 15.8% in grassland abandoned for three year, while increased slightly in grassland abandoned for 15 years, and with a recovery rate of 0.35 Mg· hm-2· a-1.
  • ZHANG Le-qin
    Download PDF ( ) HTML ( )   Knowledge map   Save
    To explore the limit time of minimum impact of urbanization evolution on carbon emission is of important guiding significance to develop the planning and policies of carbon emission reduction. The carbon emission of Anhui Province from 1995 to 2011 was estimated from two aspects, i.e., carbon source and carbon sink. Kaya identities and factorization model were used to investigate the quantity of carbon emission generated by urbanization development. Referring to economic marginal theories and derivation method, the change rate model of marginal carbon emission generated by urbanization evolution was established to estimate the change rate of marginal carbon emission in research time- series. In assistance of Excel software, a scatter plot was developed with trend line added to describe the changing trend in the change rate of marginal carbon emission. A quadratic function for extreme method was applied to explore the impact limit time of urbanization evolution on carbon emission. The results showed that: 1) the carbon emission of Anhui Province was increased from 21.82 million tons in 1995 to 101.2 million tons in 2011 with annual average amplification of 10.06%; 2) in the research time-series, total carbon emission generated by urbanization evolution was 36.03 million tons with annual average of 2.25 million tons and greater inter- annual change; 3) the fitting curve of change rate of marginal carbon emission generated by urbanization evolution was neither U-shaped pattern nor inverted U-shaped pattern with insignificant time-dimension dependency; and 4) the impact of urbanization development on carbon emission in Anhui Province showed a power function relationship with significant incremental effect of urbanization evolution. Based on the research results, policy recommendations were put forward from the following aspects, i.e., the ideas of innovative development to lead low-carbon urbanization; the optimization of energy structure to support low-carbon urbanization; the development of systems to guarantee low-carbon urbanization; the connotation construction to promote low-carbon urbanization and so on. It can not only provide a decision-making reference for ecological construction and the implementation of sustainable development strategies in Anhui Province, but also offer references for similar studies at provincial scale.
  • CHEN Wu, XU Xin-yi, WANG Hong-rui, WANG Wai
    Download PDF ( ) HTML ( )   Knowledge map   Save
    Determining the weights of indices is the foundation of comprehensive evaluation of water resources. Previous studies, usually using a single weight determination method, resulted in the differences of results. The paper proposed an improved method of rank correlation analysis to determine the weights of indices. Firstly, the evaluation index system of sustainable utilization of water resources of Beijing is constructed. Secondly, a consistency test on different orders given by experts is made and the orders that do not pass the consistency test are eliminated. And then, the thought of circular revision is used to unify the orders of index importance. Finally, the rate of importance is acquired by the ratios of the standard deviations between the two adjacent indices. The paper set up the evaluation model of water resource sustainable utilization in Beijing based on improved method of rank correlation analysis, and then the model was applied to appraise the water resources status of Beijing from 2005 to 2010. The research showed that the new weighing method of improved rank correlation analysis could reflect both experts'opinion and data information. It also settled the problem of allocating subjective and objective weights.