Content of Growth and Shrinkage Effects in our journal

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  • Growth and Shrinkage Effects
    WU Kang, LIU Xiao-xiao, YAO Chang-cheng
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2023, 38(1): 109-125. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20230107

    In the new high-quality development stage, the growth and shrinkage of resource-based cities face a systematic reconfiguration of internal and external conditions. There is a lack of empirical evidence on how resource-based cities can escape from the historical fate of "exhaustion of mines and decline of cities" and achieve positive urban population growth in the process of transformation and development. This paper uses cross-sectional and panel data of 116 resource-based cities from 2010 to 2020 to quantitatively characterize their trajectory of growth and shrinkage, and empirically investigate the influence mechanism of industrial structure transformation on population growth and decline. The study finds that more than 60% of resource-based cities in China were shrinking during the study period, showing a geographical distribution pattern of "one belt and two areas". The rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure both show crowding-out effects on the population growth of resource-based cities in the short term, and in the long term, the effect of industrial structure rationalization turns positive, while the compensating effect of industrial structure upgrading is not yet apparent. In the long run, the impact of industrial structure rationalization turns positive, while the compensating effect of industrial structure upgrading has not yet appeared. The diversity of industrial structure can promote the population growth of resource-based cities in the short term, but this effect is not significant in the long term. Based on those findings, the transformation and development of resource-based cities need to improve the level of industrial structure rationalization as an important breakthrough, take industrial structure upgrading as a long-term main line, implement parallel strategies of industrial extension and industrial renewal based on local comparative advantages, and build a diversified industrial system. The industrial structure transformation of resource-based cities of different types and development stages should emphasize strategic differentiation.

  • Growth and Shrinkage Effects
    SUN Qian, FENG Yan, TANG Yong, YIN Gang, REN Guo-ping, KUANG Wen
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2023, 38(1): 126-139. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20230108

    After considering resource-based cities as the research object, this paper theoretically analyzes the impact of land finance on housing prices and economic growth, considers the mediating role of housing prices, and constructs a random effect model of panel data. A total of 111 resource-based cities with well-developed land and real estate markets were chosen by categorization based on panel data from 2011 to 2019 to investigate the mediating influence of housing prices on land finance and economic growth in resource-based cities. This study presents some findings as follows. Firstly, land finance has a significant positive impact on economic growth and housing prices in resource-based cities, but there are some differences in the degree of impact. In addition, land financing has the greatest influence on economic growth and housing prices in regenerating cities but on the other hand, land financing in mature cities has the least impact on economic growth and housing price. This difference is related to the resource guarantee ability of the city. Secondly, housing prices in resource-based cities and mature cities have significant partial mediating effects on land finance and economic growth. Most importantly, our analysis found that housing prices had no substantial mediating influence on land finance and economic growth in regenerating, growing, and declining cities. These findings add to the literature by enlightening guidance to policymakers and regulatory organizations for the advancement of land financing and economic growth.

  • Growth and Shrinkage Effects
    LIU Ting, SHEN Yu-ming
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2023, 38(1): 140-156. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20230109

    At present, realizing steady and healthy economic growth is one of the major aims of resource-depleted cities in urban transformation. The service-driven development mode is of great significance for improving economic growth levels and promoting employment in resource-depleted cities during the process of urban transformation. Based on panel data of 23 prefecture-level resource-depleted cities in China from 2001 to 2018. This paper aims to analyze the economic growth effect of the service industry on the transformation of resource-depleted cities by utilizing the fixed-effect model and threshold model. The results indicate that: (1) Generally, there are differences in the economic growth effects of service industry development on urban transformation in different stages of transformation, and the economic growth effects of service industry on urban transformation show a trend of "promotion-inhibition-promotion" with the improvement of service industry development level. (2) Producer service industry placed an effect of "negative-positive-negative" trend on the economic growth of urban transformation at different stages of transformation, and the consumer service industry exerts an effect of "suppression-promotion-inhibition" on the economic growth of urban transformation with the improvement of consumer service industry development level. (3) Traditional service sectors such as transportation, wholesale and retail have a negative effect on the economic growth of urban transformation, while high-end service sectors such as information transmission and finance place a positive effect on economic growth. (4) The overall economic growth effect of the service industry on the transformation of coal cities and forest cities is significantly positive.

  • Growth and Shrinkage Effects
    LI Yan-lin, LI He
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2023, 38(1): 157-170. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20230110

    In this paper, resource-based cities (RCs) with shrinking population in China are taken as cases to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of urban population and housing price since 2005, and compare the different response characteristics of urban housing prices during the period of population shrinkage in terms of the amount and speed of housing price appreciation. In addition, the grey correlation model is adopted to identify factors influencing different responses of housing prices. The results show that: (1) The population shrinkage of RCs in China is getting worse, but the housing prices of 90% RCs are increasing during the period of population shrinkage. Only a few RCs, mainly in Eastern Heilongjiang, Northwestern Gansu and Central Shanxi, have seen a slight decline in house prices. (2) There are obvious differences in housing price response intensity in RCs under the background of population shrinkage. Cities of high response intensity grades mainly include the moderate population shrinkage cities, the declining and mature coal resource cities, the border RCs, and the RCs in the border area of provinces. (3) For most RCs, population shrinkage is not closely correlated with housing price response. Other factors are more closely correlated with the response to housing prices, and there are significant differences among cities with different housing price response intensity.

  • Growth and Shrinkage Effects
    HUANG Yi-fan, ZHOU Kai, TU Hua, DAI Yan-gui, LIU Hua-gao
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2023, 38(1): 171-185. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20230111

    Most resource-depleted cities face the problems of environmental degradation, landscape fragmentation, and blocked ecological mobility, in which their broken ecosystems are in urgent need for restoration. Meanwhile, resource-depleted cities are also typically shrinking cities. Under the impacts of population outflow, economic recession, and physical decay, there appeared a large quantity of abandoned lands and vacant houses, with inefficient sites in urgent need for restructuring. At the same time, these fragmented patches and corridors in the ecological system also provide opportunities for the restoration of ecological security patterns. This paper explores a GeoDesign method that combines the processes of ecological restoration and spatial governance in a shrinking city, using the case of Xikuangshan district in Lengshuijiang city. First of all, following the standard process of ecological restoration, i.e. "identifying ecological sources, constructing resistance surfaces, extracting corridors, acquiring key nodes, and constructing ecological networks", the research constructs conductance surfaces based on the InVEST model, and uses the circuit theory modeling to simulate natural ecological landscape patches. The key ecological flow paths are identified according to the strength of the current. Secondly, based on the spatial distribution of important ecological corridors and patches identified, the key obstacle points in the ecological network that need restoration are selected. Finally, a zonal phased plan is developed with reference to the existing land use, the effect of ecological restoration is tested using the afore-mentioned model, and eventually, the urban design strategy is considered for the regeneration and reuse of the abandoned lands and vacant houses on the key obstacle nodes. This research aims to bridge the analytical method of ecological restoration with the demands for spatial shrinkage of the resource-depleted city, in order to formulate a step-by-step GeoDesign method by integrating 'ecological analysis-policy study-planning design', from which the shrinking resource-depleted city is able to achieve smart shrinkage and ecological restoration.