Paths to Carbon Emissions Peaking and Carbon Neutrality
MAO Xi-yan, HE Can-fei, WANG Pei-yu, XU Rui, HU Xing-mu-zi, HE Shu-qi
Trade liberalization of environmental goods offers new insights into the global efforts in response to global environmental changes. China has comparative advantages in trading energy-related products such as renewable energy equipment. The emerging environmental goods trade in China may contribute to China's commitment to carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. This study traces the trade development of environmental goods in China during 1996-2019, and depicts its structural changes in products and trading partners. Using the LMDI approach, this study decomposes carbon emissions into four components, namely, emission intensities, energy efficiencies, economic growth, and population growth. Then, the ARDL-ECM model is used to examine the co-integration of environmental goods trade and carbon emission reduction, and its long-and short-term effects. The results reveal that: (1) The development of environmental goods trade has a negative effect in terms of the short-term carbon emissions, but a positive one in the long run. (2) Environmental goods trade enlarges the carbon reduction effects of energy efficiencies, and ruduces the carbon emissions aroused by economic growth. (3) The concentration of specific products may promote carbon reduction in the short run. Nevertheless, carbon reduction, in the long run, requires a diversity of products. The improvement of the trade network benefits the carbon reduction in the short run. However, the increasing reliance on imports, in the long run, has adverse effects on carbon reduction. (4) Effects of environmental goods trade on carbon reduction origin from both energy-related products and the others. Non-energy-related products also exhibit their capacity in promoting energy efficiencies and economic restructuring, which contributes to carbon reduction.