Coastal Environmental Risks and Effects
YUAN Hai-hong, LYU Yi, ZHANG Shi-jing
The IPCC special report on global warming of 1.5 °C and the IPCC special report on climate change and land both identify aquaculture as one of the key sectors that requires attention on global food security and the upgrading of adaptation policy. Research on the disaster-adaptive behavior and its influencing factors at the farmer level is of great value for enhancing the adaptive capacity to disasters, ensuring the livelihood of aquaculture farmers, and the sustainable development of islands, so as to revitalize fishing villages. However, very few studies have been conducted at the farmer level. Using survey data obtained from 202 aquaculture farmers from the Zhoushan and Dongtou Island regions and applying multivariate probit model, this study analyzes the disaster adaptation strategies of aquaculture farmers during the whole process of disaster management and the influencing factors. The results showed that: (1) Diverse multilevel adaptive strategies were adopted in study areas to deal with typhoon disaster. Up-front strategies, simple early strategies and future-benefits strategies were used significantly less than no-regret reaction and low-regret tactics by aquaculture farmers, making most farmers' adaptation strategies less effective. More than half of the farmers are willing to adopt the up-front, simple early and future-benefits strategies in the future if conditions facilitate usage of these strategies. (2) Each factor affected adaptation strategies of aquaculture farmers negatively and positively at the same time, and there was also significant complementary and substitutive relationship among the adaptive strategies selected by the aquaculture farmers. (3) Age, family labor, and the number of disasters occurring in the past 5 years were important factors influencing aquaculture farmers' adaptive behavior. Input, health status, disaster perception, income, education level, and social capital also had a significant impact on farmers' adaptive behavior. (4) Some influencing factors and their effects on the disaster adaptation behavior of aquaculture farmers in Zhoushan Islands and Dongtou Islands were different from those in other regions, which highlight the uniqueness of island regions. This study identifies the key influencing factors and weakness of adaptation behavior toward typhoon disaster, and the conclusions provide useful insight into the optimization and adjustment of the government and farmers' adaptation strategies.