Trends in Food Security
ZHANG Qiu-meng, YANG Fang-she, LI Fei
Grain production space reconstruction not only concerns China's food security, but also has a profound impact on regional economic development and ecological protection. From three dimensions of quantity, production potential and spatial pattern, the paper employs GAEZ (Global Agro-Ecological Zones) model, landscape pattern index and gravity center model to discuss the grain production space reconstruction of China from 1980 to 2018. Studies have shown that: (1) In terms of quantity, grain production space gradually decreases from south to north, and the total area remains almost unchanged, but it has frequent internal conversion. The grain production space has been transformed into other land use types, amounting to about 64.58 million hm2, of which the Grain for Green and construction land expansion account for roughly 90%. The other land use types have been converted into grain production space, reaching 66.8 million hm2, of which deforestation and grassland reclamation account for 75%. (2) From production potential, the total amount showed decreasing trends in the past 40 years, while the spatial distribution presents a pattern of "high in the east and low in the west", showing an obvious gradient difference from east to west. The decrease of total production potential of grain production space was mainly caused by the Grain for Green and construction land expansion, resulting in the decrease of grain production space with medium-low, medium and medium-high potential levels; However, its total increase was mainly attributed to the deforestation and grassland reclamation, leading to an increase of grain production space with medium and medium-high potential levels. (3) Due to the aggravation of human activities, the landscape pattern of China's grain production space has undergone significant changes since the 1980s. Its scale gradually decreased, the shape tended to be complex, and the distance gradually became far. Meanwhile, the quantity gravity center has moved southward, but not too far. The gravity center of its production potential has been moving to the northeast, with a distance of 82.74 km. This paper enriches the research setup of land system, and provides the basis for guaranteeing food security and realizing food production space's sustainable and intensive use.