Orginal Article
SONG Pei-zheng, WANG Jia-yang, LIU Wei, YU Jing, ZHANG Bi
Pressure-state-response frame model was introduced to build the index system of regional water resource security quantitative assessment. The Logistic index model was used to simulate the influence of each index, and the parameters in Logistic index formula were optimized with particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Sensitivity analysis was adapted to verify the reliability of the Logistic index formula. The evaluation indexes and grades of each prefecture-level city in Anhui Province were calculated by the optimized Logistic index formula, and the sub-systems of pressure, status, and respond were evaluated as well. The main conclusions are as following: Huangshan, Chizhou, Xuancheng, Tongling, Anqing, Lu’an, and Wuhu ranked grade Ⅱ among sixteen prefecture-level cities. Ma’anshan, Hefei, Huainan, Chuzhou, Huaibei, Bengbu, Suzhou, and Bozhou ranked grade Ⅲ. Fuyang ranked grade Ⅳ as insecure water resources. Further analysis on water resources security in pressure, status, and respond sub-systems showed that indicators of pressure sub-system reflected the effect of human economic and social activities on water resources. The indexes of Tongling, Hefei, Huainan and Ma’anshan are higher, indicating that the social economic, technical level and climate condition in these four cities provide better support to regional water resources. State sub-system reflected the safe coefficient of regional water resources. The indexes of Chizhou, Huangshan and Xuancheng are higher, showing safer utilization of regional water resources. Response sub-system reflected the countermeasures of water resources issues. The index of Hefei is the highest, showing that Hefei has the highest response intensity on water resources issues. The study shows that the Logical index formula optimized by particle swarm optimization is practical and feasible for regional water security assessment, and it provides scientific basis for regional water resource planning and management.