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JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES >

2026 , Vol. 41 >Issue 2: 627 - 642

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20260218

Regular Articles

Supply-demand matching of wind and solar energy systems on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change scenarios

  • MUHADAISI Airiken , 1, 2 ,
  • LIU Lai-bao 3, 4 ,
  • LI Shuang-cheng , 1, 2
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  • 1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • 2. Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • 3. Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China
  • 4. Institute for Climate and Carbon Neutrality, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China

Received date: 2024-09-02

  Revised date: 2025-01-20

  Online published: 2026-01-14

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Abstract

Climate change can influence both energy supply and demand. As a critical strategic resource reserve for China, the Tibetan Plateau lacks comprehensive research on the future alignment of electricity supply and demand from wind and solar (W&S) energy systems under climate change scenarios. This study develops a supply-demand matching (SDM) index using outputs from 12 global climate models and evaluates the independent and combined effects of climate change on supply, demand, and changes in SDM (∆SDM) through controlled experiments. The results indicate that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, W&S system supply, driven by shifts in climate mean states, shows a declining trend. For wind energy systems, ∆SDM decreases by an average of -2.95%, driven by the combined effects of supply and demand changes. Conversely, for solar energy systems, ∆SDM increases by an average of 2.02%, primarily due to a reduction in future heating demand, which offsets the decline in solar energy supply and enhances the supply-demand matching of solar energy systems. This study provides a scientific foundation for the Tibetan Plateau's energy sector to adapt effectively to climate change.

Key words： wind energy; solar energy; supply-demand match; climate change; Tibetan Plateau

Cite this article

MUHADAISI Airiken , LIU Lai-bao , LI Shuang-cheng . Supply-demand matching of wind and solar energy systems on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change scenarios[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2026 , 41(2) : 627 -642 . DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20260218

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