JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES >
Impacts of land market on urban-rural integrated development in China
Received date: 2018-10-09
Request revised date: 2018-12-11
Online published: 2019-02-28
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The urban-rural integrated development is the key measure to realize rural vitalization and promote new-type urbanization, while the land market is an important channel to realize the flow of urban-rural development elements, also a key link to connect urban-rural development. This paper analyzes the scientific connotation and substantial characteristics of urban-rural integrated development, and then explores the driving mechanism of land market on urban-rural integrated development. Based on these foundation, we quantitatively analyze the evolution law of land market and urban-rural integrated development in 273 cities at prefecture level or above in China. Furthermore, the relationship between land market and urban-rural integrated development was tested based on the panel data model to give a feasible proposal for the integration of urban and rural development from the perspective of land market. Main conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) The urban-rural integrated development is a process of the reconstruction of urban-rural values aiming at removing the obstacles hindering urban-rural development. It helps to promote the free flow and equal exchange of urban-rural elements, and achieve the convergence of returns from urban-rural development elements. The essence is to achieve the overall optimization of urban-rural regional functions through urban-rural integrated development and complementarity. (2) The effect of land market on urban-rural integration is a balance of advantages and disadvantages, and the direction depends on whether the land market is benign. Under the urban-rural dual distribution system and the curtain wall of society, the distorted land market impedes the urban-rural integrated development. (3) From 2005 to 2013, the scale of land market, land market price and land marketization degree increased by 113.66%, 274.09% and 37.07%, respectively, while the level of urban-rural integrated development in 59.34% cities have declined. Steadily developing land market and low level of urban-rural integrated development in China presented stark contrast and obvious spatio-temporal differentiation. (4) Currently, land market is more of a hindrance to urban-rural integrated development, but there is a "low level trap" between land market and urban-rural integrated development. Breaking the suppression inflection point of 88.64%, land market can then play a positive role on promoting urban-rural integration. So, reshaping the healthy value orientation of the land market development, accelerating the land marketization reform and exploring the mechanism of population-land linkage are important parts for follow-up work.
CHEN Kun-qiu , LONG Hua-lou . Impacts of land market on urban-rural integrated development in China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2019 , 34(2) : 221 -235 . DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20190201
Fig. 1 The conceptual framework of urban-rural integrated development图1 城乡融合发展的概念框架 |
Fig. 2 The analysis framework between land market and urban-rural integrated development图2 土地市场与城乡融合发展的分析框架 |
Table 1 The Moran's I of land market and urban-rural integrated development during 2005-2013表1 2005-2013年土地市场与城乡融合发展Moran's I指数 |
年份 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
城乡融合水平 | 0.060*** | 0.075*** | 0.1009*** | 0.076*** | 0.081*** | 0.051 | 0.100*** | 0.121*** | 0.152*** |
土地市场规模 | 0.150*** | 0.141*** | 0.1305*** | 0.176*** | 0.172*** | 0.175*** | 0.1353*** | 0.153*** | 0.159*** |
土地市场价格 | 0.085*** | 0.062*** | 0.0515*** | 0.051*** | 0.115*** | 0.110*** | -0.003 | 0.066*** | 0.067*** |
土地市场化程度 | 0.000 | 0.079*** | 0.0685*** | 0.042*** | 0.038*** | 0.014** | -0.016 | -0.0095 | 0.025*** |
注:***、**分别表示P<0.01、P<0.05。 |
Table 2 The variables' specification and statistical analysis表2 变量说明与统计性分析 |
变量名 | 变量释义 | 观测量 | 平均值 | 标准差 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Uri | (农村人均收支差/农村人均收入)/(城市人均收支差/城市人均收入) | 2457 | 0.998 | 0.613 |
lnlms | 土地出让面积的对数值(hm2) | 2457 | 6.318 | 1.057 |
lnlmp | 土地出让单价对数值(万元/hm2) | 2457 | 6.075 | 0.836 |
Lmd | 招拍挂出让收入/土地出让总收入 | 2457 | 0.866 | 2.921 |
lnpd | 人口密度对数值(人/km2) | 2457 | 5.765 | 0.879 |
Is | 第二产业产值/第三产业产值 | 2457 | 1.524 | 0.746 |
Cd | 年就业增长率/年GDP增长率 | 2457 | 1.021 | 54.775 |
Gb | 地方政府财政支出占GDP比例(%) | 2457 | 0.153 | 0.098 |
Fig. 3 The annual average evolution of land market图3 土地市场年度均值演进态势 |
Fig. 4 The annual average evolution of urban-rural integrated development图4 城乡融合发展年度均值演进态势 |
Fig. 5 The global trend of land market and urban-rural integrated development in 2013图5 2013年土地市场与城乡融发展合全局趋势 |
Fig. 6 The spatial distribution of land market and urban-rural integrated development in 2013图6 2013年土地市场与城乡融合发展空间分布 |
Table 3 The relationship test between land market and urban-rural integrated development: Benchmark regression表3 土地市场与城乡融合发展固定效应检验:基准回归 |
模型(1) | 模型(2) | 模型(3) | 模型(4) | 模型(5) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
lnlms | -0.0449*** | -0.0412** | |||
(-2.75) | (-2.52) | ||||
lnlmp | -0.0394** | -0.0353** | |||
(-2.47) | (-2.20) | ||||
Lmd | -0.0496*** | -0.0039*** | |||
(-11.46) | (-4.31) | ||||
Lmd 2 | 0.0022*** | ||||
(3.56) | |||||
lnpd | 1.0157*** | 1.0112*** | 1.1290*** | 0.7025*** | 0.8403*** |
(4.55) | (4.51) | (4.94) | (3.32) | (3.92) | |
Is | 0.0716** | 0.0679** | 0.0768** | 0.0479 | 0.0580* |
(2.23) | (2.12) | (2.38) | (1.54) | (1.86) | |
Cd | -0.0028*** | -0.0029*** | -0.0028*** | -0.0001 | -0.0001 |
(-2.92) | (-3.03) | (-2.85) | (-0.58) | (-0.49) | |
Gb | -0.4157*** | -0.4415*** | -0.3475** | -2.9989** | -3.6177*** |
(-2.65) | (-2.84) | (-2.17) | (-3.54) | (-2.97) | |
时间效应 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
城市效应 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Observations | 2457 | 2457 | 2457 | 2457 | 2457 |
R-squared | 0.020 | 0.019 | 0.022 | 0.068 | 0.074 |
注:***、**、*分别表示P<0.01、P<0.05、P<0.1,括号内为t统计量,下同。 |
Table 4 The relationship test between land market and urban-rural integrated development: Robustness regression表4 土地市场与城乡融合发展:稳健性检验 |
模型(6) | 模型(7) | 模型(8) | 模型(9) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
收入差距 | 消费差距 | 城乡居民收支差与消费比的比值 | 时间惯性 | |
lnlms | 0.2019*** | 0.1549*** | -0.0723*** | |
(27.4) | (14.34) | (-3.03) | ||
lnlmp | 0.2419*** | 0.2093*** | -0.0968*** | |
(33.63) | (19.64) | (-4.16) | ||
lnlmst-1 | -0.0317** | |||
(-2.22) | ||||
lnlmpt-1 | -0.357*** | |||
(-2.45) | ||||
控制变量 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
时间效应 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
城市效应 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Observations | 2457 | 2457 | 2457 | 2457 |
R-squared | 0.652 | 0.388 | 0.022 | 0.023 |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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