National grain security plays a critical role in national economy and the people’s livehood. In 2003-2013, China had achieved ten-year consecutive grain production increase that had never appeared in history and attracted a great deal of attention in the worldwide. Till 2015, the grain production has been experienced by the twelve-year consecutive increase. The purpose of this paper is to detect the spatiotemporal patterns and the main contributions of the ten-year consecutive grain production increase from 2003 to 2013. Based on factors contribu-tions analysis and GIS, this paper analyzes the situation and spatiotemporal differences of grain output growth at the national level and the provincial level, with the data of planted area and yield per unit area. The spatiotemporal patterns and the main contribution factors of China’s grain output increase were discussed at the multiple-levels including provincial level and national level. The results showed that: 1) the output growth of rice, wheat and maize (which are called “three major grain crops”) were the main reason of the grain output growth at the national level, whose contribution rate in the total grain output growth was 105.73% due to the decrease of other grain crops such as soybean, broomcorn, millet, etc; 2) maize was the biggest contributor in three major grain crops in 2003-2013, whether the rate of increase (88.63%), contribution rate of grain output growth (56.70%), the speed of incresase (1 026.59×104 t/a) or the universality (29 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions) of grain output growth, rice was the second, and wheat was the last; 3) at the national scale, the grain output growth caused by the promotion of yield per unit area accounted for 64.50%, which was more than that caused by the expansion of planted area (35.50%); 4) as to the crops, the output growth of rice and maize relied on the expansion of planted area, and the contribution rate of planted area was 56.59% and 64.83% respectively, whereas the output growth of wheat relied on the increase of yield per unit area which has the contribution rate of 73.21%; and 5) the grain output growth appeared in most of provinces during the 10 years, and the provinces in Northeast China, North China, the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River had more significant increase. In general, the main regions with ten-year consecutive grain production increase were the Northeast China Plain, the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Xinjiang. The expansion of planted area and the increase of yield per unit area were both significant contribution factors to the grain output growth in 2003-2013, whereas the role of yield per unit area was more obvious.
[1] 《中国土地资源生产能力及人口承载量研究》课题组. 中国土地资源生产能力及人口承载量研究 [M]. 北京: 中国人民大学出版社, 1991. [The Research Group of China’s Productivity of Land Resource and Its Population Carrying Capacity. China’s Productivity of Land Resource and Its Population Carrying Capacity. Beijing: China Renmin University Press, 1991. ]
[2] 封志明, 李香莲. 耕地与粮食安全战略: 藏粮于土, 提高中国土地资源的综合生产能力 [J]. 地理学与国土研究, 2000, 16(3): 1-5. [FENG Z M, LI X L. The stratagem of cultivated land and food supplies security: Storing food in land—Raising the comprehensive productivity of land resource of China. Geography and Territorial Research, 2000, 16(3): 1-5. ]
[3] 威廉·福格特. 生存之路 [M]. 张子美, 译. 北京: 商务印书馆, 1981. [VOGT W. Road to Survival. Translated by ZHANG Z M. Beijing: The Commercial Press, 1981. ]
[4] BROWN L R. Who Will Feed China?: Wake-up Call for a Small Planet [M]. W.W. Norton & Company, Inc., 1995.
[5] BROWN L R, HALWEIL B. China��s water shortage could shake world food security [J]. World Watch, 1998, 11(4): 10-21.
[6] 莱斯特·R·布朗. 地球不堪重负: 水位下降、气温上升时代的食物安全挑战 [M]. 林自新, 暴永宁, 等译. 北京: 东方出版社, 2005. [BROWN L R. Outgrowing the Earth: The Food Security Challenge in An Age of Falling Water Tables and Rising Temperatures. Translated by LIN Z X, BAO Y J, et al. Beijing: The Oriental Press, 2005. ]
[7] BROWN L R. Can the United States feed China? [N].Washington Post, 2011-03-11.
[8] BROWN L R. Can the world feed China? [EB/OL]. http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2014/update121, 2014-02-25.
[9] 兹比格纽·布热津斯基. 大棋局——美国的首要地位及其地缘战略 [M]. 中国国际问题研究所译. 上海: 上海人民出版社, 2014. [BRZEZINSKI Z. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. Translated by China Institute of International Studies. Shanghai: Shanghai People��s Publishing House, 2014. ]
[10] 封志明. 中国未来人口发展的粮食安全与耕地保障 [J]. 人口研究, 2007, 31(2): 15-29. [FENG Z M. Future food security and arable land guarantee for population development in China. Population Research, 2007, 31(2): 15-29. ]
[11] 韩俊. 14亿人的粮食安全战略 [M]. 海口: 学习出版社, 海南出版社, 2013. [HAN J. Food Security Strategy for 1.4 Billion People. Haikou: Study Press, Hainan Press, 2013. ]
[12] 人民网. 2015中央一号文件发布连续第12年聚焦“三农”[EB/OL]. http://politics.people.com.cn/n/2015/0201/c1001-26487321.html, 2015-02-01. [People’s Daily Online. China released the 12th annual “No. 1 Central Document” focusingon “agriculture, rural areas and farmers”. http://politics.people.com.cn/n/2015/0201/c1001-26487321.html, 2015-02-01. ]
[13] 王济民, 肖红波. 我国粮食八年增产的性质与前景 [J]. 农业经济问题, 2013(2): 22-31. [WANG J M, XIAO H B. The nature and prospects of the continuously growth of China’s grain output in 8 years. Issues in Agricultural Economy (Monthly), 2013(2): 22-31. ]
[14] 陈锡文. 农业和农村发展:形势与问题 [J]. 南京农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2013, 13(1): 1-10. [CHEN X W. Agriculture and rural development: Current situation and problems. Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition), 2013, 13(1): 1-10. ]
[15] 中国新闻网. 全国粮食产量十连增多政策提高农民种粮积极性 [EB/OL]. http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2013/11-29/5563315.shtml, 2013-11-29. [Ecns.cn. China has achieved the ten-year consecutive grain production increase, and farmers were encouraged to grow more in a variety of ways. http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2013/11-29/5563315.shtml, 2013-11-29. ]
[16] 屈宝香, 张华, 李刚. 中国粮食生产布局与结构区域演变分析 [J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2011, 32(1): 1-6. [QU B X, ZHANG H, LI G. Analysisof the evolution on the layoutand structure of regional foodproduction in China. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2011, 32(1): 1-6. ]
[17] 高云, 陈伟忠, 詹慧龙, 等. 中国粮食增产潜力影响因素分析 [J]. 中国农学通报, 2013, 29(35): 132-138. [GAO Y, CHEN W Z, ZHAN H L, et al. The analysis of influencing factors on grain potential yield growth. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2013, 29(35): 132-138. ]
[18] 朱晶, 李天祥, 林大燕, 等. “九连增”后的思考: 粮食内部调整结构的贡献及未来潜力分析 [J]. 农业经济问题(月刊), 2013(11): 36-43. [ZHU J, LI T X, LIN D Y, et al. Analysis on China��s nine-year consecutive grain production growth: Contribution and future potential of inter-crop structural adjustment. Issues in Agricultural Economy (Monthly), 2013(11): 36-43. ]
[19] 刘忠, 黄峰, 李保国. 2003—2011年中国粮食增产的贡献因素分析 [J]. 农业工程学报, 2013, 29(23): 1-8. [LIU Z, HUANG F, LI B G. Investigating contribution factors to China��s grain output increase in period of 2003 to 2011. Tran-sactions of the CSAE, 2013, 29(23): 1-8. ]
[20] 任继周. 我国传统农业结构不改变不行了——粮食九连增后的隐忧 [J]. 草业学报, 2013, 22(3): 1-5. [REN J Z. China’s traditional agricultural structure is obliged to change—Some worry thoughts behind increasing grain yield for nine consecutive years. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2013, 22(3): 1-5. ]
[21] 李天祥, 朱晶. 近十年来中国粮食内部种植结构调整对水土资源利用的影响分析 [J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2014, 24(9): 96-102. [LI T X, ZHU J. Impacts of inter-crop structural adjustment on China’s water and land use in grain production in the last ten years. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(9): 96-102. ]
[22] 刘玉, 高秉博, 潘瑜春, 等. 基于LMDI模型的中国粮食产量变化及作物构成分解研究 [J]. 自然资源学报, 2014, 29(10): 1709-1720. [LIU Y, GAO B B, PAN Y C, et al. Investigating contribution factors to China��s grain output increase based on LMDI model during the period 1980 to 2010. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(10): 1709-1720. ]
[23] 周立青, 程叶青. 黑龙江省粮食生产的时空格局及动因分析 [J]. 自然资源学报, 2015, 30(3): 491-501. [ZHOU L Q, CHENG Y Q. Spatio-temporal pattern and its driving factors of grain production in Heilongjiang Province. Journal of Natural Resources, 2015, 30(3): 491-501. ]
[24] CHEN Y, WU Z, ZHU T, et al. Agricultural policy, climate factors and grain output: Evidence from household survey data in rural China [J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2013, 12(1): 169-183.
[25] 刘莉华, 杜建斌, 李好, 等. 粮食“九连增”的特点及原因分析 [J]. 中国农业信息, 2013(3): 3-6. [LI L H, DU J B, LI H, et al. The characteristics and cause analysis of nine-year consecutive grain production growth. China Agriculture Information, 2013(3): 3-6. ]
[26] 刘斌, 王秀东. 我国粮食“九连增”主要因素贡献浅析 [J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2013, 34(4): 5-10. [LIU B, WANG X D. Analysisof the major contribution factors of nine-year consecutive increasingof China’s grain. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2013, 34(4): 5-10. ]
[27] 田甜, 李隆玲, 黄东, 等. 未来中国粮食增产将主要依靠什么?——基于粮食生产“十连增”的分析 [J]. 中国农村经济, 2015(6): 13-22. [TIAN T, LI L L, HUANG D, et al. What shall the increase in China’s grain output depend on mainly in the future?—Analysis based on the 10 consecutive year increase in grain output of China. Chinese Rural Economy, 2015(6): 13-22. ]
[28] 邹凤羽. 粮食经济地理 [M]. 北京: 中国财富出版社(原中国物资出版社), 2011. [ZOU F Y. Economic Geography of Grain. Beijing: China Fortune Press (Original China Logistics Publishing House), 2011. ]
[29] 国家统计局农村社会经济调查司. 中国农村统计年鉴 [M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2004—2014. [Department of Rural Surveys, National Statistics of China. China Rural Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2004-2014. ]
[30] FAO. FAO Statistical Yearbook 2013—World Food and Agriculture [M]. Rome, 2013.
[31] 国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴 [M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2004—2014. [National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. China Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2004-2014. ]
[32] ANG B W. The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: A practical guide [J]. Energy Policy, 2005, 33(7): 867-871.
[33] 张百平, 张雪芹, 郑度. 西北干旱区不宜作为我国耕地后备资源基地 [J]. 干旱区研究, 2010, 27(1):1-5. [ZHANG B P, ZHANG X Q, ZHENG D. Arid Northwest China can not be regarded as the farmland reserve base. Arid Zone Research, 2010, 27(1): 1-5. ]
[34] 胡汝骥, 姜逢清, 王亚俊. 中国干旱区不能成为“我国新粮仓” [J]. 干旱区研究, 2010, 27(2):153-159. [HU R J, JIANG F Q, WANG Y J. The arid lands of China should not be taken as the new grain output fields. Arid Zone Research, 2010, 27(2):153-159. ]
