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JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES >

2013 , Vol. 28 >Issue 9: 1569 - 1582

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.09.012

Resources Evaluation

ClimateChange and Its Effects on Runoff in Upper and Middle Reaches of Lancang-Mekong River

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  • 1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of River Basin Water Cycle, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;
    2. China Irrigation and Drainage Development Center, Beijing 100054, China

Received date: 2012-07-24

  Revised date: 2012-10-24

  Online published: 2013-09-20

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Abstract

Regional climate change and runoff response in the upper and middle reaches of the Lancang-Mekong River Basin were simulated by basin water cycle model WACM (Water resources Allocation and Cycle Model) and regional climate model (RegCM3) coupled with one-way mode. The projected results of regional climate change show that the temperature and precipitation in future (2010-2039) under SRES A1B scenario increases by 0.65 ℃ and 1.87% respectively relative to current status (1980-2009), while the precipitation increase is insignificant. The temperature in northern part of the basin changes more obviously than that in the southern part. The precipitation changes are relatively complicated in different regions. Furthermore, results of runoff simulation indicate that the runoff at Chiang Saen and Luang Prabang hydrologic stations under future climate change scenario decreases by 1.23% and 3.69% respectively, and the variation is insignificant. The changes of inter-annual runoff present a decreasing trend slightly, and the role of temperature on runoff variations is stronger than precipitation. The distribution of monthly runoff within a year is uneven in spring and summer (from March to June), it may cause the floods and hydrologic droughts in local regions, however, the runoff variations are not obvious in the rest months.

Key words： land-atmosphere coupling; upper and middle reaches of Lancang-Mekong River; climate change; runoff simulation; Regional climate model (RegCM3); WACM model

Cite this article

WU Di, ZHAO Yong, PEI Yuan-sheng, BI Yan-jie . ClimateChange and Its Effects on Runoff in Upper and Middle Reaches of Lancang-Mekong River[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2013 , 28(9) : 1569 -1582 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.09.012

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