JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES >
Research on the Dynamics Analysis and Optimization Decision-Making of Water Resources Supply and Demand System in Dongting Lake District
Received date: 2011-12-05
Revised date: 2012-09-05
Online published: 2013-01-30
A water resources supply and demand system dynamic model was built up based on the systematic analysis of characteristics and the inter-relationship of sub-systems of water resources supply and demand system in Dongting Lake District. In modeling, four scenarios, as traditional development model, economic development model, water saving model and concerted development model, were simulated to calculate the changing trends of the balance of water resources supply and demand in Dongting Lake District from 2010 to 2030. The simulation suggests that: 1) The problem of water resources supply and demand is becoming increasingly conspicuous with growing population and fast developed economy. 2) By 2030, the water resources demand will be reaching a total of 159.1×108 m3, the largest gap between supply and demand is 1.9×108 m3 in 2020, and the supply surplus of water resources is 3.6×108 m3 in 2030, water resources supply meets basically the growing demands for socio-economic development, and the greatest comprehensive benefits under concerted development model can be generated, hence it will be the best solution to the development and utilization of water resources in Dongting Lake District. 3) We should enhance our awareness of protection of water resources, strengthen the management on water conservation, optimize economic structure, increase our investment in water conservancy projects and environmental improvement, promote the utilization ratio and the support capabilities of water resources so as to realize the expected goal.
LI Jing-zhi, ZHU Xiang, LI Jing-bao . Research on the Dynamics Analysis and Optimization Decision-Making of Water Resources Supply and Demand System in Dongting Lake District[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2013 , 28(2) : 199 -210 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.02.002
[1] 湖南统计局. 湖南统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2010. [Hunan Statistics Bureau. Hunan Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2010.]
[2] 朱翔, 贺清云, 李景保, 等. 环洞庭湖经济圈建设研究[M]. 长沙: 湖南师范大学出版社, 2003. [ZHU Xiang, HE Qing-yun, LI Jing-bao, et al. Research on Development of Round-the-Lake Economic Circle of the Dongting Lake. Changsha: Hunan Normal University Press, 2003.]
[3] 李景保, 常疆, 吕殿青, 等. 三峡水库调度运行初期荆江与洞庭湖区的水文效应[J]. 地理学报, 2009, 64(11): 1342-1352. [LI Jing-bao, CHANG Jiang, LU Dian-qing, et al. The hydrological effect between Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake during initial period of three gorges project operation. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(11): 1342-1352.]
[4] 李景保, 王克林, 尹辉, 等. 洞庭湖区2000—2007农业干旱灾害特点及成因分析[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2008, 19(6): 1-5. [LI Jing-bao, WANG Ke-lin, YIN Hui, et al. The characteristics and causes of agricultural drought disasters in the area of Dongting Lake from 2000 to 2007. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2008, 19(6): 1-5.]
[5] 卢金友, 罗恒凯. 长江与洞庭湖关系变化初步分析[J]. 人民长江, 1999, 30(4): 24-26. [LU Jin -you, LUO Heng-kai. Preliminary analysis on variation of the relation between Yangtze River and Dongting Lake. Yangzte River, 1999, 30(4): 24-26.]
[6] 李景保, 秦建新, 王克林, 等. 洞庭湖环境系统变化对水文情势的响应[J]. 地理学报, 2004, 59(2): 239-248. [LI Jing-bao, QIN Jian-xin, WANG Ke-lin, et al. The response of environment system changes of Dongting Lake to hydrological situation. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(2): 239-248.]
[7] 王其藩. 系统动力学[M]. 修订版. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 1994. [WANG Qi-fan. System Dynamics. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 1994.]
[8] 张巧显, 欧阳志云, 王如松, 等. 中国水安全系统模拟及对策比较研究[J]. 水科学进展, 2002, 13(5): 569-577. [ZHANG Qiao-xian, OUYANG Zhi-yun, WANG Ru-song, et al. Modeling water security in China and comparison of strategies. Advances in Water Science, 2002, 13(5): 569-577.]
[9] Sagoff M. Carrying capacity and ecological economics [J]. Bioscience, 1995, 45(9): 610-619.
[10] Daly H E. Reply to mark Sasgoff's "carrying capacity and ecological economics" [J]. Bioscience, 1995, 45(9): 621-624.
[11] 高彦春, 刘昌明. 区域水资源系统仿真预测及优化决策研究——以汉中盆地平坝区为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 1996, 11(1): 23-32. [GAO Yan-chun, LIU Chang-ming. A study of the simulated calculation and optimal decision-making of regional water resources—Taking the plain area of the Hanzhong Basin as an example. Journal of Natural Resources, 1996, 11(1): 23-32.]
[12] 左其亭, 张云, 林平. 人水和谐评价指标及量化方法研究[J]. 水利学报, 2008, 39(4): 440-447. [ZUO Qi-ting, ZHANG Yun, LIN Ping. Index system and quantif ication method for human-water harmony. Journal of Hydraulic Enginneering, 2008, 39(4): 440-447.]
[13] 彭佩钦, 仇少尹. 洞庭湖区农业环境与湖垸农业可持续发展模式[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(3): 322-326. [PENG Pei-qin, QIU Shao-yin. Agricultural environment and its sustainable development at embankment region of Dongting Lake. Yangtze Valley Resources and Environment, 2005, 14(3): 322-326.]
[14] 贺清云, 朱翔. 三峡工程建设背景下的洞庭湖区治水方略探讨[J]. 地理研究, 2003, 22(2): 160-167. [HE Qing-yun, ZHU Xiang. Strategic research of flood hazard mitigation of Dongting Lake on the background of Three Gorges Project construction. Geogtaphical Research, 2003, 22(2): 160-167.]
[15] 刘卡波. 调整洞庭湖区水系结构优化水资源配置[J]. 湖南水利水电, 2008(4): 33-36. [LIU Ka-bo. Water construction adjusting and water resources allocation optimization. Hunan Hydro & Power, 2008(4): 33-36.]
[16] 熊鹰, 王克林, 蓝万炼, 等. 洞庭湖区湿地恢复的生态补偿效应评估[J]. 地理学报, 2004, 59(5): 772-780. [XIONG Ying, WANG Ke-lin, LAN Wan-lian, et al. Evaluation of the lake recovery area eco-compensation in Dongting Lake Wetland. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(5): 772-780.]
[17] 谢云辉. 洞庭湖保护刻不容缓[J]. 大自然, 2007(5): 62-66. [XIE Yun-hui. Protecting the Dongting Lake with no delay. Nature, 2007(5): 62-66.]
[18] 仲志余, 胡维忠. 长江流域规划与维护健康湖泊[J]. 人民长江, 2009(7): 12-15. [ZHONG Zhi-yu, HU Wei-zhong. Yangtze River Basin planning and maintenance of healthy lakes. Yangzte River, 2009(7): 12-15.]
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |