Resources Security

Urban Development Security Warning of Jiangsu Province under Water Restriction

  • 1. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;
    2. Urban and Resource Science College, Jinling College, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210089, China;
    3. Jiangsu Department of Land and Resources, Nanjing 210029, China

Received date: 2011-03-24

  Revised date: 2011-12-06

  Online published: 2012-12-20


Urban expansion can’t go on without water resources, as water resources carrying capacity is an crucial factor to urban development. In this article, we put forward a method of calculating urban development degree threshold based on water constraints and urban development security warning. Taken Jiangsu Province for example, we made a research on urban development security warning from aspects of status, trends and effects, and then we made a division of comprehensive early warning partition. The results show that: by 2020, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou and Nanjing will be severe warning area. Xuzhou and Lianyungang will be high warning area and Zhenjiang, Yangzhou, Taizhou and Nantong will be moderate warning area, while Huaian, Yancheng and Suqian will be mild warning area. Through GM(1, 1) model and related equations, we defined and quantified the indexes of urban development degree, development capacity, development critical point, population and temperature changes after development. We aim at simulating the whole process of urban development, reflecting the dynamic of urban development in order to provide scientific basis and theoretic support for government in formulating diverse urban development policies and warning measures.

Cite this article

DAI Liang, CHEN Dong-xiang, WU Shao-hua, LI Ru-hai, ZHOU Sheng-lu, CHEN Yi, HUANG Xian-jin . Urban Development Security Warning of Jiangsu Province under Water Restriction[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2012 , 27(12) : 2039 -2047 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.12.005


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