JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES >
Climate Change and Its Effects on Runoff Process in the Headstream Areas of Aksu River Basin, Xinjiang
Received date: 2011-09-15
Revised date: 2012-04-23
Online published: 2012-11-20
Based on the runoff data of two hydrological stations and the climate data of two meteorological stations during the period of approximate 50 years in the headstream areas of Aksu River Basin, the periodicity and trends of climate change and runoff were investigated by nonparametric test and an extrapolation method of variance analysis, and then the future change trend and runoff volumes of the annual runoff were predicted by the periodic trend superposition model and R/S analysis. In succession, the impact volumes of climate change on the annual runoff were separated from the observation values of the annual runoff in the Aksu River. the results showed that: the temperature, precipitation and annual runoff of Aksu River Basin increased significantly, and the mutations of which are at 1989, 1985 and 1993, respectively; the Hurst coefficients of both climate factors and the annual runoff were bigger than 0.5, and indicated that they would still keep an increasing trend; the relative highest and lowest volumes of the annual runoff will be 91.822×108 m3 in 2014 and 83.430×108 m3 in 2011 during the period of 2010-2014; the annual runoff holds a quasi-25 years’period from 1957 to 2007, but the primary period of 17 years was proved before shifting change; the increased volume of the annual runoff in the headstream due to climate change is 224.97×108 m3 after shifting change, and the highest value and lowest value of the affecting volume are in 2003 and 2004, respectively.
LIU Xin-hua, XU Hai-liang, ZHANG Qing-qing, BAI Yuan, FU Jin-yi, DAI Yue . Climate Change and Its Effects on Runoff Process in the Headstream Areas of Aksu River Basin, Xinjiang[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2012 , 27(11) : 1931 -1939 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.11.012
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