JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES >
Reconstruction of Climatic Data in the Kaidu River Basin Based on Climatic Data of Central Asia
Received date: 2011-08-09
Revised date: 2012-04-13
Online published: 2012-11-20
The 20th century was probably believed as the warmest period during the last one thousand years. However, the lack of observed climatic data during the first half of the 20th century in China, especially in the arid land of Northwest China led to great uncertainty in climate change assessment of the 20th century. Reconstruction of climatic data for the first half of the 20th century could improve the reliability of climate change assessment of the 20th century. Choosing the observed monthly temperature and precipitation of three meteorological stations from Central Asia during the 20th century and the observed monthly temperature and precipitation of four meteorological stations from Kaidu River Basin during 1961-1990, this paper reconstructed the monthly temperature and precipitation during 1901-1960 in Kaidu River Basin using Delta and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) methods and analyzed the performance of reconstruction and applicability of those two methods. The results showed that: the performance of reconstructed monthly temperature using Delta method was better than that using CCA method, while the performance of reconstructed monthly precipitation using CCA method was better than that using Delta method. The inter-annual variation of monthly temperature time series during 1901-1960 reconstructed by Delta method was large. It was smooth and steady of monthly temperature time series during 1901-1960 reconstructed by CCA method. The inter-annual variation was large for monthly precipitation time series during 1901-1960 reconstructed by both Delta and CCA methods.
Key words： climate change; reconstruction; Delta method; CCA method; Kaidu River Basin
LI Xue-mei, LI Lan-hai, BAI Lei, ZHANG Fei-yun, SHANG Ming, WANG Xi-xi . Reconstruction of Climatic Data in the Kaidu River Basin Based on Climatic Data of Central Asia[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2012 , 27(11) : 1918 -1930 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.11.011
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