The Inflection Point Theory of Mineral Resources Demand and Peak Forecast

  • 1. China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China;
    2. China Academy of Land & Resource Economics, Beijing 101149, China

Received date: 2011-07-02

  Revised date: 2012-02-29

  Online published: 2012-09-20


The contradiction between mineral resources finiteness and rapid growth of demand became increasingly prominent. These questions such as in the future, rapid economic development requires how many mineral resources and when reaching demand peak in China, are the basis of formulating mineral resource strategy. The study proposed double inflection points theory of mineral resource consumption: on the one hand, the peak that mineral resource consumption intensity reaches corresponds with the inflection point, as mineral resources utilization transforms from the extensive to intensive; on the other hand, the peak that mineral resources consumption level reaches corresponds with the inflection point, as mineral resources consumption converts increase to reduce. After logic derivation, it support this theory by the evolution track of mineral resource consumption and the economic development in the United States. Through comparative study, it suggests that mineral resources demand in China has great potential in the next few years. Choosing the BP neural network and ridge regression forecast methods, comprehensive consideration of the economic development, population change and technology progress, based on the Matlab software, it forecasted mineral requirements and peak inflection point in China. The prediction results show that energy demand inflection point in the 14th Five-Year Plan period will peak for 4.5-5 billion tons of standard coal; steel demand inflection point in the 13th Five-Year Plan period will peak for 800 million tons; copper demand inflection point in the 13th Five-Year Plan period will peak for 9 million tons; and the peak of aluminum demand inflection point in the 12th Five-Year Plan period is 16-17 million tons.

Cite this article

REN Zhong-bao, WANG Shi-hu, TANG Yu, ZHOU Hai-dong . The Inflection Point Theory of Mineral Resources Demand and Peak Forecast[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2012 , 27(9) : 1480 -1489 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.09.005


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