Hypothesis and Validation on the Logistic Curve of Economic Development and Urban Sprawl —Based on the Investigation of the Typical Cities in East China

  • 1. The Key Laboratories of Resources Environment and Information Engineering in Jiangsu Province, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China;
    2. China Center for Land Policy Research, Nanjing Agriculture University, Nanjing 210095, China

Received date: 2011-09-21

  Revised date: 2011-11-04

  Online published: 2012-05-20


Economic development and urban sprawl have been the scholar’s research hot spot, and the hypothesis is mostly based on the contradiction of the development and protection. This paper, based on the development track of cities at home and abroad, puts forward the new research perspective judgment. There is the Logistic curve between economic development and urban sprawl, and then the authors select the typical cities in East China for empirical test. As the results show: First, economic growth’dependence on urban sprawl weakened gradually abroad from the rapid urbanization, industrialization primary phase transiting to the senior or after the process of industrialization stage. Second, China’s economic growth and urban sprawl has periodical fluctuating characteristics from 1978 to 2003, and there have been significant decoupling or different fluctuations since 2003. Third, the empirical results show that turning points would come in urban sprawl when the secondary。 and tertiary industry GDP of Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuxi and Xuzhou achieved respectively 2.91×1011yuan, 1.02×1011 yuan, 4.43×1010 yuan and 9.42×1010 yuan, and this verified the hypothesis that the scale cap would be 8.99×104 hm2, 6.01×104 hm2, 2.20×104 hm2 and 3.43×104 hm2. Research conclusion can provide scientific basis and the direct reference for the management of urban sprawl and public policy adjustment in China.

Cite this article

LI Xiao-shun, QU Fu-tian, CHEN You-si, MOU Shou-gou . Hypothesis and Validation on the Logistic Curve of Economic Development and Urban Sprawl —Based on the Investigation of the Typical Cities in East China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2012 , (5) : 713 -722 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.05.001


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