Urban growth boundary (UGB) is a common tool employed by planners to constrain urban expansion in order to increase density of urban services and protect surrounding rural landscapes. Many countries have adopted the method of UGB to control urban sprawl. China's current urban and land use planning start also to have a clear requirement to delineate UGB, but the analysis method is also relatively weak. Especially, few models have been developed that simulate the UGB. We use system dynamics model, cellular automata in combination with the analysis of urban capacity to study the UGB of Changzhou City. Firstly, based on the analysis of the system dynamics model, urban land area of Changzhou City is 30847 hm2 by 2020. Urban growth mainly performs the urban land spread model of urban fringe area, simultaneously, and infill development model in inner city area of the northern and southern groups and the main city area. The boudaries of urban growth is enclosed along the Yangtze River-Desheng River-Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway-New Meng River-Desheng River-Wu-Yi Canal-Ningli high-speed-Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway-city district boudary. UGB curve simulated in the paper and GH-UGB proposed in actual urban comprehensive planning spatially fit well in the northern and eastern parts, but not in the western and southern parts. We think that it reflects the flexible nature of planning tools and the deficiencies of model prediction on considering macro-space pattern and the elements inner contacts of urban system. However, the forecast value of urban land size has a weak gap between the UGB and GH-UGB, and it reflects the subjectivity of the planning tools and the objectivity of the model prediction. This method in our paper has the advantage of using a variety of model combined with the urban capacity analysis, but needs to be improved in fully considering random policies, urban elements contacts and spatial overall pattern.
SU Wei-zhong, YANG Gui-shan, CHEN Shuang, WANG Dan, WU Jian-ping, GAO Qun
. Analysis Method of Urban Growth Boundary of the Changzhou City in the Yangtze River Delta[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2012
, 27(2)
: 322
-331
.
DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.02.015
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