Resources Evaluation

Analysis on Climatic Change Trend of Cold/Warm Seasonal Characteristics in Ebinur Lake Basin from 1960 to 2006

  • 1. Xinjang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Urumqi 830011, China;
    4. Hainan Environment and Geology Exploration Institute, Sanya 572000, China;
    5. ESRI (Beijing) Co., Ltd., Beijing 100027, China

Received date: 2010-08-16

  Revised date: 2011-03-18

  Online published: 2012-01-20


The trend, periodicity and abrupt change of cold-warm seasonal and annual mean air temperatures, precipitations and sunshine duration were analyzed in Ebinur Lake Basin with methods of line analyze, annual anomalies, wavelet analyze and Mann-Kendall test during the recent 47 years. The results indicate that: The temperatures and precipitations trend is increased in Ebinur Lake Basin during 47 years, the average trends are 0.43 ℃/10 a and 12.02 mm/10 a; and the sunshine duration trend is decreased with -22.30 h/10 a. In view of the spatial distribution pattern, average annual temperature of the stations in the Ebinur Lake Basin all increases to different extent. The growth of Tuoli is the maximum and that of Wenquan is the minimum. The annual precipitation of Tuoli tends to decrease, while the annual precipitation of the other stations all increases. The decreasing of annual sunshine duration in cold season was stronger than in the warm season, which led to most stations in the study area show trends of decreasing. The time series of temperatures, precipitations and sunshine duration in cold-warm seasonal and annual all have long cycles, which contain some short ones. There are all obvious periodicity of 8 years and the long periodicity of 14 and 20 years respectively for precipitations and sunshine duration; but the time series of mean air temperatures is complex and has cycles around 11 and 22 years. The change years, which happen in the 1980s, of climate factors with methods of annual anomalies and Mann-Kendall test are identical. Along with the precipitations change from drought to rainy, the climate in the Ebinur Lake Basin became wet in 1986. The temperatures change from cold to hot in 1988. The growth of sunshine duration stopped and the total number of sunshine duration began to decrease around 1984.

Cite this article

GUO Peng-cheng, BAO An-ming, CHEN Xi, CHEN Xiao-na, WANG Xing-juan, BAI Ze-long . Analysis on Climatic Change Trend of Cold/Warm Seasonal Characteristics in Ebinur Lake Basin from 1960 to 2006[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2012 , 27(1) : 132 -142 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.01.014


[1] 杜军, 翁海卿, 袁雷, 等. 近40年西藏怒江河谷盆地的气候特征及变化趋势[J]. 地理学报, 2009, 64(5): 581-591. [2] IPCC. Summa for Policymakers of Climate Change 2007: The Physica1 Science Basis[M]. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007. [3] 王遵娅, 丁一汇, 何金海, 等. 近50年来中国气候变化特征的再分析[J]. 气象学报, 2004, 62(2): 228-236. [4] 李林, 李凤霞, 郭安红, 等. 近43年来"三江源"地区气候变化趋势及其突变研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2006, 21(1): 79-85. [5] 施雅风, 沈永平, 李栋粱, 等. 中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J]. 第四纪研究, 2003, 23(2): 152-164. [6] 周驰, 何隆华, 杨娜. 人类活动和气候变化对艾比湖湖泊面积的影响[J]. 海洋地质与第四纪地质, 2010, 30(2): 121-126. [7] 苏颖君, 张振海, 包安明. 艾比湖生态环境恶化及防治对策[J]. 干旱区地理, 2002, 25(2): 143-148. [8] 方精云. 吉良龟夫与生态学的发展[J]. 生态学杂志, 1995, 14(2): 70-75. [9] 马占云, 林而达, 吴正方. 东北地区湿地生态系统的气候特征[J]. 资源科学, 2007, 29(6): 16-24. [10] 李珍, 姜逢清. 1961—2004年新疆气候突变分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2007, 29(3): 351-359. [11] 王钧, 蒙吉军. 黑河流域近60年来径流量变化及影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2008, 28(1): 83-88. [12] 苏宏超, 魏文寿, 韩萍. 新疆近50a来的气温和蒸发变化[J]. 冰川冻土, 2003, 25(2): 174-177. [13] 何清, 杨青, 李红军. 新疆40a来气温、降水和沙尘天气变化[J]. 冰川冻土, 2003, 25(4): 423-427. [14] 辛渝, 陈洪武, 张广兴, 等. 博州气候暖湿化中若干其他气候特征的变化[J]. 中国沙漠, 2008, 28(3): 526-536. [15] 陈志华, 石广玉, 车慧正. 近40a来新疆地区太阳辐射状况研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2005, 28(6): 734-739. [16] Torrence C, Compo G P. A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1998, 79: 61-78. [17] 郝志新, 郑景云, 葛全胜. 黄河中下游地区降水变化的周期分析[J]. 地理学报, 2007, 62(5): 537-544. [18] 禹朴家, 徐海量, 张青青, 等. 1959—2007年玛纳斯河流域干湿季气候变化趋势[J]. 冰川冻土, 2010, 32(6): 1121-1129. [19] 辛渝, 毛炜峄, 李元鹏, 等. 新疆不同季节降水气候分区及变化趋势[J]. 中国沙漠, 2009, 29(5): 948-959.