The hazards of extreme weather events are likely greater than the change of climatic mean variables under the background of climate change. The assessment on impacts and vulnerability of ecosystem to extreme events is important and realistic. The process-based model (CEVSA) was used to simulate the responses of ecosystem to extreme precipitation in the upper and middle Yangtze Valley because of its frequency of drought and flood. The net primary productivity (NPP) in summer which has high correlation with precipitation anomalies was analyzed as an indicator of ecosystem to extreme precipitation. The variability of NPP and its changing tendency were defined as the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of ecosystem to extreme precipitation, respectively, and the vulnerability of ecosystem to extreme precipitation was calculated based on them. The results suggested that most of the ecosystem was gently vulnerable and took 65% of the upper and middle Yangtze Valley during 1961-1990, and the higher vulnerable ecosystem took about 20%, mainly distributed in the northwestern part. Extreme precipitation would increase the vulnerability of ecosystem, whatever drought or flood. The main change of vulnerability was shifted from nonvulnerable state to gently vulnerable state during the extreme precipitation years. The higher vulnerable ecosystem was mainly located in the northern part of the upper and middle Yangtze Valley, and its percent was hardly changed under different extreme precipitation. Compared with the impacts of drought and flood, the vulnerability in drought years was higher than in flood years, and even it was the same in the next year of extreme precipitation. However, the ecosystem vulnerability in most part of the valley could get back to the level of multi-year mean state in the next years of extreme precipitation.
YU Li, LI Ke-rang, TAO Bo
. Assessment on Ecosystem Vulnerability to Extreme Precipitation in the Upper and Middle Yangtze Valley[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2012
, 27(1)
: 82
-89
.
DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.01.009
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