As a demonstration from the three rivers of the Aksu River Basin, the paper checked the nonlinear characteristics of annual runoff processes from 1957 to 2008 by using the wavelet analysis method and R/S analysis. The main conclusions are as follows: The annual runoff trends of the mainstream of Aksu River, the Kumlak River and Tuoshigan River are increasing; the trends are divided into two parts: the runoff is less in the prophase and more in the latter period. The time series of runoff in Aksu River all has long cycles, which contains some short ones. The period of 18 years and 22 years is the first period, which is through all the time sequence. The Hurst index of the three rivers in the Aksu River Basin is over 0.5 in each period, which indicates that the time series of runoff have the long trend. The Hurst index of each river in the last period indicates that the annual runoff in the Aksu River Basin will show an increasing trend in the future.
YU Pu-jia, XU Hai-liang, LIU Shi-wei, AN Hong-yan, ZHANG Qing-qing, GONG Jun-jun
. The Nonlinear Characteristics of Annual Runoff Change in Aksu River[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2011
, 26(8)
: 1412
-1422
.
DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.08.032
[1] 高龙华. 径流演变的人类驱动力模型[J]. 水利学报, 2006, 37(9): 1129-1133.
[2] 徐建华, 陈亚宁, 李卫红, 等. 西北干旱区内陆河年径流过程的非线性特征-塔里木盆地三源河的实证分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2008, 31(3): 324-332.
[3] CHEN Ya-ning, ZHANG Xiao-lei, LI Wei-hong, et al. Analysis on the ecological benefits of the stream water conveyance to the dried-up river of the lower reaches of Tarim River, China [J]. Science in China Series D, 2004, 47(11): 1053-1064.
[4] 王顺德, 王彦国, 王进, 等. 塔里木河流域近40a来气候、水文变化及其影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2003, 25(3): 315-320.
[5] 王顺德, 李红德, 胡林金, 等. 2002年塔里木河流域四条源流区间耗水分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2004, 26(4): 496-502.
[6] 李占玲, 徐宗学, 巩同梁. 雅鲁藏布江流域径流特性变化分析[J]. 地理研究, 2008, 27(2): 353-361.
[7] 杨志峰, 李春晖. 黄河流域天然径流量突变性与周期性特征[J]. 山地学报, 2004, 22(2): 140-146.
[8] 王钧, 蒙吉军. 黑河流域近60年来径流量变化及影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2008, 28(1): 83-88.
[9] 蒋晓辉, 刘昌明, 黄强. 黄河上中游天然径流多时间尺度变化及动因分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2003, 18(2): 142-148.
[10] 王波雷, 马孝义, 季万才, 等. 乌兰木伦河径流变异特征分析研究[J]. 水土保持究, 2007, 14(6): 313-318.
[11] 马岚, 魏晓妹. 石羊河下游年径流序列的变异点分析[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2006, 24(2): 174-177.
[12] 张晓伟, 沈冰, 黄领梅. 和田河年径流变化规律研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2007, 22(6): 974-979.
[13] XU Jian-hua, LU Yan , SU Fang-lin, et al. R/S and wavelet analysis on the evolutionary process of regional economic disparity in China during the past 50 years [J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2004, 14(3): l93-201.
[14] 张姣, 刘光瑗, 沈永平, 等. 20世纪下半叶以来阿克苏河山前绿洲带气候、径流变化特征及其人类活动影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2008, 30(2): 218-223.
[15] 林勇, 刘世荣, 李崇巍, 等. 小波变换在岷江上游杂古脑流域径流时间序列分析中的应用[J]. 应用生态学报, 2005, 16(9): 1645-1649.
[16] 路云阁, 李双成, 蔡运龙. 近40年气候变化及其空间分异的多尺度研究——以内蒙古自治区为例[J]. 地理科学, 2004, 24(4): 433-439.
[17] 刘会玉, 林振山, 张明阳. 建国以来中国洪涝灾害成灾面积变化的小波分析[J]. 地理科学, 2005, 25 (1): 43-48.
[18] Donald I Turcotte. Fractals and Chaos in Geology and Geophysics [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997: 158-162.
[19] 门宝辉, 刘昌明, 夏军, 等. R/S分析法在南水北调西线一期工程调水河流径流趋势预测中的应用[J]. 冰川冻土, 2005, 27(4): 568-573.
[20] 李红军, 江志红, 刘新春, 等. 阿克苏河径流变化与北大西洋涛动的关系[J]. 地理学报, 2008, 63(5): 491-501.
[21] 施雅风, 沈永平, 胡汝骥. 西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J]. 冰川冻土, 2002, 24(3): 219-226. [SHI Ya-feng, SHEN Yong-ping, HU Ru-ji. Preliminary study on signal, impact and foreground of climatic shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in Northwest China. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2002, 24(3): 219-226.]
[22] 姜大膀, 苏明峰, 魏荣庆. 新疆气候的干湿变化及其趋势预估[J]. 大气科学, 2009, 33(1): 90-98.
[23] 王国亚, 沈永平, 苏宏超, 等. 1956—2006 年阿克苏河径流变化及其对区域水资源安全的可能影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2008, 30(4): 562-568. [WANG Guo-ya, SHEN Yong-ping, SU Hong-chao, et al. Runoff changes in Aksu River Basin during 1956-2006 and their impacts on water availability for Tarim river. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2008, 30(4): 562-568.]
