The research of zero growth problems in water demand for a country is not only an important content of its long-term prediction of the supply and demand of water resources,but also an important part of water demand management, which makes such research of forward-looking and strategic significance. This paper analyzes the relationship between the ratio of tertiary industry in GDP and the total water demands in developed countries and regions,and investigates when the zero growth in total water demand of China would come true and the maximum amount of water demand through the method of "industrial structure analysis". According to this method, when the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP of a country or a region reaches 60% around,the total water demand would realize zero growth (or negative growth). The total water demand of China would reach zero growth during 2026 to 2030, with the maximum amount of around 630 billion m3.
HE Xi-wu, GU Ding-fa, TANG Qing-wei
. Study on Zero Growth Problem in Total Water Demand of China[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2011
, 26(6)
: 901
-909
.
DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.06.001
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