The water level of river network significantly increased and flood disasters occurred frequently in the Taihu Lake Basin at the end of the 20th century under the influence of climatic and anthropogenic factors. This paper makes a classification analysis of precipitation and water level series and explores the trends of their changes based on daily rainfall and water level data. A two-parameter elasticity analysis is adopted to investigate the sensitivity of water level to precipitation changes and urbanization which is representative of human activities. The main results are as follows: First, the contribution of low ranks (Ranks 1-3) of precipitation in flood and non-flood seasons to the total precipitation in the same period is on the decrease while the contribution of the high ranks (Ranks 8-10) is on the increase, thus the concentration of precipitation increases. The characteristics of water level are similar to those of the precipitation. However, the concentration of high rank water levels increases much more significantly than that of the rainfall. Second, the elasticity of urbanization during baseline period (1954-1985 for flood season and 1954-1987 for non-flood season) is not significant at the 5% level, while it is significant during the comparison period and the contribution of urbanization is near that of the precipitation. The paper draws a conclusion that human activities characterized by fast urbanization have played an important role in the changes of water level in the core region of the Taihu Lake Basin since the 1980s. The results of the paper may provide support for flood control and urban planning and management in the study area.
YIN Yi-xing, XU You-peng
. Response of Water Levels to Precipitation Changes and Regional Urbanization in the Core Regions of the Taihu Lake Basin[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2011
, 26(5)
: 769
-779
.
DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.05.005
[1] 黄俊雄, 徐宗学. 太湖流域1954—2006年气候变化及其演变趋势[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2009, 18(1): 33-40.
[2] 陈家其. 长江三角洲城市建设发展与城市水害[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 1995, 4(3): 202-208.
[3] 王西琴, 张远, 张艳会. 渭河上游天然径流变化及其自然与人为因素影响贡献量[J]. 自然资源学报, 2006, 21(6): 981-990.
[4] 叶许春, 张奇, 刘健, 等. 气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流变化的影响研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2009, 31(5): 835-842.
[5] Zhao Fangfang, Xu Zongxue, Zhang Lu, et al. Streamflow response to climate variability and human activities in the upper catchment of the Yellow River Basin[J]. Science in China Series E: Technological Sciences, 2009, 52(11): 1-8.
[6] Chen Zhongyuan, Wang Zhanghua. Yangtze Delta, China: Taihu lake-level variation since the 1950s, response to sea-level rise and human impact [J]. Environmental Geology, 1999, 37(4): 333-339.
[7] Hu Qingfang, Wang Yintang. Impact assessment of climate change and human activities on annual highest water level of Taihu Lake [J]. Water Science and Engineering, 2009, 2(1): 1-15.
[8] 尹义星, 许有鹏, 陈莹. 湖流域典型区50年代以来极值水位时空变化研究[J]. 地理研究, 待刊.
[9] 毛锐, 李国砚, 刘晓玫. 太湖流域汛期河湖等水位线的判读及其应用[J]. 湖泊科学, 2007, 19(4): 413-420.
[10] Sheng Jingfen, John P Wils. Watershed urbanization and changing flood behavior across the Los Angeles metropolitan region [J]. Natural Hazards, 2009, 48: 41-57.
[11] Hicks R W B, Woods S D. Pollutant load, population growth and land use. Progress: Water Environment Research Foundation. 2000, 11: 10.
[12] 江苏省地方志编撰委员会. 江苏省志·人口志[M]. 北京: 方志出版社, 1999.
[13] Osborn T J, Hulme M, Jones P D, et al. Observed trends in the daily intensity of United Kingdom precipitation [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2000, 20: 347-364.
[14] Karl T R, Knight R W. Secular trends of precipitation amount frequency and intensity in the United States [J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1998, 79: 231-241.
[15] Sankarasubramaniam A, Vogel R M, Limburner J F. Climate elasticity of streamflow in the United States [J]. Water Resources Research, 2001, 37: 1771-1781.
[16] 谢平, 陈广才, 雷红富, 等. 变化环境下地表水资源评价方法[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2009.
[17] 杨桂山, 王德建, 等. 太湖流域经济发展·水环境·水灾害[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2003.
[18] 李燕, 李恒鹏. 太湖流域土地利用变化的水文效应及其风险评价[J]. 水土保持学报, 2007, 27(5): 37-40.
