In order to study the impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield under global warming, the contribution of climate change to winter wheat yield was analyzed in the north of Anhui Province. Based on the determination of the mutation point of winter wheat yield from the analysis of characteristics of climate elements and winter wheat yield, the extraction of climate factors that related with yield and the establishment of the climatic yield model using regression, the contribution rate of climate change to winter wheat yield was calculated quantitatively by the model for the north of Anhui Province from 1961 to 2007. The result showed that: average temperature had a significant increase, precipitation had unobvious trend but significant fluctuation, and sunshine had a significant decrease during the growing period of winter wheat in the north of Anhui Province. Over-wintering stage maximum temperature, regreening stage minimum temperature and grain-filling stage sunshine were significantly positively correlated with wheat yield, but grain-filling stage precipitation was significantly negatively correlated with wheat yield. In the past 47 years, over-wintering maximum temperature and regreening stage minimum temperature had risen by 0.028 ℃·10 a-1 and 0.855 ℃·10 a-1, grain-filling stage precipitation and sunshine had decreased by -1.157 mm·10 a-1 and -2.695 h·10 a-1.The climate change had a weak negative contribution to winter wheat yield and the contribution rate was -5.89％.In this paper, the climatic yield model could reflect the contribution of climate change to winter wheat yield in the north of Anhui Province in the past 47 years. A certain degree of warm and dry climatic conditions was beneficial for winter wheat yield formation during the winter wheat yield growing period.
TANG Wei-an, TIAN Hong, CHEN Xiao-yi, WEN Hua-yang, DING Xia, XU Guang-qing
. Response of Winter Wheat Yield to Climate Change under Global Warming in Anhui Province[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2011
, 26(1)
: 66
-78
.
DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.01.007
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