Resources Utilization and Management

Econometric Analysis of the Dynamic Interaction between Urbanization and Economic Growth and Environmental Pressure: The Case of Ningxia

Expand
  • 1. College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    2. Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA;
    3. Institute of Tourism Planning & Design, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73000, China;
    4. Institute of Apply Ecology,CAS,Shenyang 110016, China

Received date: 2010-01-24

  Revised date: 2010-08-09

  Online published: 2011-01-30

Abstract

The paper analyzed the evolutionary trajectory of urbanization ratio and economic growth in Ningxia for the 21 years from 1985-2005. And based on emergy theory,the paper evaluated the environmental pressures which were indicated by Environmental Load Rate(ELR) and Emergy Waste Rate(EWR) and respectively represent environmental pressure related to natural resource input and pollution emission. Secondly,by using the time-serial data of urbanization ratio,and per capital GDP and environmental pressure indicators,we applied the Co-integration Test,Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality Relationship Test to examine the causal relationship between these variables (urbanization-economic growth and urbanization-environmental pressures). Thirdly,the relative strength of the causality is gauged by Variance Decomposition method which decomposes the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own,in the bivariate system. The results indicate that the urbanization ratio has been increasing constantly,and per capital GDP as well. At the same time,the Environmental pressure has been rising persistently. The findings of econometric analysis indicate that there is no Granger causality between urbanization and economic growth,and the beneficial interaction between them has not formed. For the relationship between urbanization and environmental pressure,temporal causality result was unidirectional causality from urbanization to environmental pressure. But the relative of strength of causality varies from ELR to EWR. Furthermore,it is very difficult to reduce the environmental pressure in the short run for Ningxia.

Cite this article

ZHANG Zi-long, CHEN Xing-peng, LU Cheng-peng, GUO Xiao-jia, XUE Bing . Econometric Analysis of the Dynamic Interaction between Urbanization and Economic Growth and Environmental Pressure: The Case of Ningxia[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2011 , 26(1) : 22 -33 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.01.003

References

[1] 陆大道, 姚士谋, 李国平. 基于我国国情的城镇化过程综合分析[J]. 经济地理, 2007, 27(6): 883-887. [2] 张俊军, 许学强. 中国城市可持续发展研究进展[J]. 地域研究与开发, 1999, 18(1): 22-25. [3] 周一星. 城市地理学[M]. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2001. [4] 程开明. 城市化与经济增长的互动机制及理论模型述评[J]. 经济评论, 2007(4): 143-150. [5] 方创琳, 杨玉梅. 城市化与生态环境交互耦合系统的基本定律[J]. 干旱区地理, 2006, 29(1): 1-8. [6] 刘耀彬, 李仁东, 宋学锋. 城市化与城市生态环境关系研究综述与评价[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2005, 15(3): 55-60. [7] 黄金川, 方创琳. 城市化与生态环境交互耦合机制与规律性分析[J]. 地理研究, 2003, 22(2): 211-220. [8] 刘耀彬, 李仁东, 宋学锋. 中国区域城市化与生态环境耦合的关联分析[J]. 地理学报, 2005, 60(2): 237-247. [9] 冯维波. 城市化发展与生态环境质量的内在逻辑[J]. 水土保持研究, 2007, 4(1): 92-94. [10] 王如松. 转型期城市生态学前沿研究进展[J]. 生态学报, 2000, 20(5): 830-840. [11] 高铁梅. 计量经济分析方法与建模-Eviews应用及实例[M]. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 2006. [12] Dinda S. Environmental kuznets curve hypothesis: A survey [J]. Ecological Economics, 2004, 49(4): 431- 455. [13] 蓝盛芳, 钦佩, 陆宏芳. 生态经济系统能值分析[M]. 北京: 化学工业出版社, 2002. [14] Howard T Odum. Environmental Accounting: Emergy and Environmental Decision Making [M]. John Wiley & Sons,New York, 1996. [15] 王艳明, 许启发. 经济增长及其影响因素的动态关联与交互影响[J]. 统计与决策, 2006(8): 73-76. [16] 李金昌, 程开明. 中国城市化与经济增长的动态计量分析[J]. 财经研究, 2006, 32(9): 19-30. [17] (美)古扎拉蒂. 计量经济学[M]. 第4版. 北京: 中国人民大学出版社, 2005. [18] 张晓峒. Eviews使用指南与案例[M]. 北京: 机械工业出版社, 2007. [19] Granger C W J. Developments in the study of co-integrated economic variables [J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1986, 48: 213-228. [20] Walter Enders. Applied Econometric Time Series [M]. 2nd Edition. New York: Wiley, 1995. [21] Granger C W J. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross spectral methods [J]. Econometrica, 1969, 37: 424-438. [22] Masih A M M,Masih R. Energy consumption,real income and temporal causality: Results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modeling techniques [J]. Energy Economics, 1996,18: 165-183.
Outlines

/