Special Column:Celebration of the 70th Anniversary of IGSNRR, CAS

A PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE CLIMATIC CHANGE, NATURAL DISASTERS OF AGRICULTURE AND GRAIN YIELD IN CHINADURING THE PAST 15 YEARS

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  • The Open Research Lab. of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of the State Education Commission, and the Institute of Resource Science of Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875

Received date: 1996-11-12

  Revised date: 1997-02-06

  Online published: 1997-09-25

Abstract

his paper analyses the main features of the climatic change, natural disasters of agriculture and grain yield in China during the past 15 years in comparison with the situation of the last 50 years. The conclusions are as follows: (a) During the last 15 years, the average temperature increased by 0.1~0.9℃ in China. The temperature increase was higher in the north than in the south. The average increase in the north was 0.5~o.9℃ .The precipitation increased or decreased by 3%~10%. The regions with precipitation increase were the northern part of Northeast China, Xinjiang, East China, the northern part of Central China and Sichuan and Guangxi Provinces. In general, the increase was between 1% and 5%. (b) During the last 15 years, flood, water  logging and drought were the main natural hazards of agriculture in China. The drought stricken areas and flooded areas covered 17.6% and 8.1% of the sowing area in the corresponding periods respectively. The proportion of the drought stricken areas of each province was about 5%~19%. The proportion of flooded areas of each province was about 2%~10%. (c) The grain yield change due to the climatic change has obvious regional laws. The law shows that in the whole country the rich harvest year and the poor harvest year occur alternately and that the east and the west or the south and the north supplement each other in grain yield. In the past, we pointed out the law that “the south will have flood when the north has drought ”or “the south will have drought when the north has flood”. Actually it is not very exact. (d) During the last 15 years, the range of the grain yield decrease due to natural hazards occupied about 15% of the grain yield in the same period.The loss induced by meteorological disasters occupied about 40%. That was 6% of the grain yield in the same period. The continuous uptrend of the grain yield decrease proportion in the main grain production regions is one of the major reasons for the slow increase in grain yield in China since 1984.

Cite this article

Shi Peijun, Wang Jingai Xie Yun, Wang Ping, Zhou Wuguang . A PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE CLIMATIC CHANGE, NATURAL DISASTERS OF AGRICULTURE AND GRAIN YIELD IN CHINADURING THE PAST 15 YEARS[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 1997 , 12(3) : 197 -203 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.1997.03.001

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