Resources Safety

Research on the Assessment of Water Resource System Risk —A Case Study of Beijing

  • 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101,China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received date: 2009-09-11

  Revised date: 2010-06-07

  Online published: 2010-11-20


There are lots of factors influencing the water resources system, making it difficult to calculate water resources system risk accurately with a single index. In this paper, on the basis of discussing the risk transfer process and the risk factors from environment, economy and society, the index system for assessment of water resource system risk which consisted of 20 practical indexes in total from four characteristics was established. A model was established on the basis of the index system to assess the water resource system risk, system counterforce ability and risk damage. Parameter calculation of risk and the risk classification is easy to implement with the model. The water resource system risk in Beijing was evaluated with the index system and the model in this paper. The results show that the water risk index is 26.97%, lower than the risk-causing rate which is 57.13%, the difference that does demonstrate the importance of the water system counterforce ability is caused by the water resource system counterforce ability. The main risk-causing factor and system counterforce ability factor are the rate of water shortage and the water guarantee rate, being 0.4261 and 0.6476 respectively. The risk results show that Beijing falls in the second category, to guard against the risk, restrictions on the use of water resources and management of water environment should be taken into effect.

Cite this article

ZHANG Shi-feng, CHEN Jun-xu, HUA Dong, MENG Xiu-jing . Research on the Assessment of Water Resource System Risk —A Case Study of Beijing[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2010 , 25(11) : 1855 -1863 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2010.11.005


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