Mid- and long-term economic growth, energy demand and carbon emissions scenarios in Jiangsu were analyzed using the IPAT model. The main parameters and results for three scenarios are introduced, according to the current energy usage situation and environmental policy. Research results show that low carbon scenario was the most appropriate and realistic way to build the energy saving and environment-friendly society; the targets of energy-saving and carbon reduction will be reached at the expense of the economic growth; with the rapid development of economy in the future, energy demand and carbon emissions will also increase quickly; compared with 2007, energy demand may increase by 1.431 times in 2030, and the carbon emissions may increase to 156.55 million tons; and energy supply and rational utilization will be the bottleneck factors in the future 20 years. Then, several suggestions are put forward in order to deal with the pressure on the reduction of carbon emissions.
NIE Rui, ZHANG Tao, WANG Di
. The Scenario Analysis on Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions Based on Environmental Loads Model[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2010
, 25(9)
: 1557
-1564
.
DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2010.09.015
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