Resources Ecology

The Impacts of Climate Change on Vegetation Net Primary Productivity of the Yangtze River Basin

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  • 1. Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received date: 2010-04-01

  Revised date: 2010-05-20

  Online published: 2010-08-20

Abstract

The Yangtze River Basin covering the eastern, middle and western economic zones of China contains total 19 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. It is the most densely populated and highly developed social and economic region. The total area of the Yangtze River Basin is 1808500 km2, accounting for 18.8% of China’s total land area. The future climate change will bring a series of complex impacts on the vegetation of the river basin. Whether these impacts are positive or negative is unknown by now. Vegetation in the Yangtze River Basin has the important function in water and soil conservation, and river runoff adjustment. It is the barrier for maintaining the ecological balance of the entire Yangtze River Basin. Therefore, exploring the response of vegetation in the Yangtze River Basin to the climate change in the future is of great importance. The best indicator for measuring the response of vegetation to climate change is net primary productivity (NPP). Based on the meteorological data during 1981 to 2000 and the B2 scenario of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) data during 2010 to 2050, the vegetation NPP in the Yangtze River Basin was predicted by the atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2). The relationships between the vegetation NPP and the climate change were analyzed. The results indicate that the spatial pattern of vegetation NPP averaged over 1981 to 2000 shows the increasing trend both from west to east and from north to south. Under B2 climate scenario, the study area will experience an overall increase in temperature, but the increasing rates are various in different areas. The future precipitation change shows regional differences. The areas with increasing precipitation are mainly located in the source region of Yangtze River, upper and northern part of the middle reaches. In the future, vegetation NPP will increase in the source and upper reaches of the Yangtze River which include the most part of Qinghai, Tibet, western Sichuan and Yunnan provinces. These areas will experience precipitation increase and smooth temperature rise. Vegetation NPP will decrease in areas with higher temperature rise and precipitation decrease. These areas scattered in the broad area of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In terms of vegetation NPP, NPP for most of the forests, closed shrubs and crops will decrease by 0-4.5 gC·m-2, 0-2 gC·m- 2 and 0-2.5 gC·m-2, respectively. Vegetation NPP for meadows, grasslands and open shrubs will increase by 0-2 gC· m-2. In summary, the future B2 climate change scenario will bring a positive effect on the meadows, grasslands and open shrubs and will bring a negative effect on forests, closed shrubs and crops in the Yangtze River Basin.

Cite this article

MIAO Qian, HUANG Mei, LI Ren-qiang . The Impacts of Climate Change on Vegetation Net Primary Productivity of the Yangtze River Basin[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2010 , 25(8) : 1296 -1305 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2010.08.007

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