Special Column:Celebration of the 70th Anniversary of IGSNRR, CAS

The Drought Assessment of Sichuan Basin Based on Information Diffusion and the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

Expand
  • 1. Sichuan Provincial Climate Center,Chengdu 610071,China;
    2. Sichuan Provincial Agricultural Meteorological Center, Chengdu 610071,China

Received date: 2006-09-21

  Revised date: 2007-12-11

  Online published: 2008-07-28

Abstract

According to meteorological datasets from 1961 to 2005,we selected drought days,relative wetness index,standard precipitation index, temperature anomaly and percentage of sunlight anomaly as evaluation indices of drought.Based on the method of information diffusion,level standards of agricultural drought that correspond to different evaluation indices were established.Then we assessed drought in Sichuan Basin during 1961-2006 with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and gave the drought occurrences frequency of each city.The results showed that severe spring drought,severe summer drought and extremely severe late-summer drought occurred in Sichuan Basin in 2006.Late-summer drought occurred in all the 17 cities,of which 13 cities witnessed extremely severe late-summer drought in the Basin.On average,the sparse precipitation weather occurred about once every 30 years in late summer.High-temperature occurred once every 60 years.About 29%of stations encountered the shortage of precipitation,and 90% of stations encountered high temperature,which occurred once over 50 years.Spring drought and summer drought mostly occurred in northwest and south of Sichuan Basin,about once per 2.5 years,late-summer drought mostly occurred in east of Sichuan Basin,about once per 2 years.

Cite this article

ZHANG Shun-qian, HOU Mei-ting, WANG Su-yan . The Drought Assessment of Sichuan Basin Based on Information Diffusion and the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2008 , 23(4) : 713 -723 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2008.04.019

References

[1] 王劲松,郭江勇,周跃武,等.干旱指标研究的进展与展望[J].干旱区地理,2007,30(1):60~65.[WANG Jin-song,GUO Jiang-yong,ZHOU Yue-wu,et al.Progress and prospect on drought indices research.Arid Land Geography,2007,30(1):60-65.] [2] 邹旭恺,张强,王有民,等.干旱指标研究进展及中美两国国家级干旱监测[J].气象,2005,31(7):6~9.[ZOU Xu-kai,ZHANG Qiang,WANG You-min,et al.Drought indices and operational drought monitoring in the U.S.A.and China.Meteorology,2005,31(7):6-9.] [3] Mckee T B,N J Doesken,J Kleist.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales.Eighth Conf.on Applied Climatology,Anheim,CA,Amer.Meteor.Soc.,1993.179~184. [4] Palmer W C.Meteorological Drought.Research Paper No.45,US Weather Bureau,1965.Washington D C 20852:NOAA Library and Information Services Division. [5] 张强,高歌.我国近50年旱涝灾害时空变化及监测预警服务[J].科技导报,2004,7:21~24.[ZHANG Qiang,GAO Ge.The spatial and temporal features of drought and flood disasters in the past 50 years and monitoring and warning services in China.Science and Technology Guide Report,2004,7:21-24.] [6] 陈淑全,罗富顺,熊志强,等.四川气候[M].成都:四川科学技术出版社,1997.86~89.[CHENG Shu-quan,LUO Fu-shun,XIONG Zhi-qiang,et al.Sichuan Climate.Chengdu:Sichuan Science and Technology Press,1997.86-89.] [7] 袁文平,周广胜.标准化降水指标与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(4):523~529.[YUAN Wen-ping,ZHOU Guang-sheng.Comparison between standardized precipitation index and Z-index in China.Acta Phytoecologica Sinica,2004,28(4):523-529.] [8] 黄崇福,刘新立,周国贤,等.以历史灾情资料为依据的农业自然灾害风险评估方法[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(2):1~8.[HUANG Chong-fu,LIU Xin-li,ZHOU Guo-xian,et al.Agricultural natural disaster risk assessment method according to the historic disaster data.Journal of Natural Disasters,1998,7(2):1-8.] [9] 冯利华.基于信息扩散理论的气象要素风险分析[J].气象科技,2000,(1):27~29.[FENG Li-hua.Meteorological element risk analysis based on information diffusion theory.Meteorological Science and Technology,2000,(1):27-29.] [10] 胡永宏,贺思辉.综合评价方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2000.167~188.
Outlines

/