Special Column:Celebration of the 70th Anniversary of IGSNRR, CAS

Studies on the Effects of Climatic Warming-drying Trend and Land Use Change on the Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin

  • 1. College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received date: 2007-09-27

  Revised date: 2007-10-29

  Online published: 2008-03-25


Based on the analysis of nearly thirty years meteorological and hydrological data (1970-2002) and remote sensing data of the 1980s and the 1990s, SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) developed by USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) was adopted to study the change of the eco-hydrological characteristics in the Jinghe River Basin under the conditions of climatic warming-drying trend and aggravated human activities. After model validation and field verification, our results showed that the model SWAT could precisely predict the eco-hydrological processes in the Jinghe River Basin. Results showed that from the 1980s to the 1990s the mean annual precipitation decreased, especially in July, August and September. Affected by climate warming-drying trend and land-use change, the mean annual runoff reduced 8.92 m3s-1. By respectively fixing the climatic factors and the land-use factors in the Jinghe River Basin, and putting the simulated scenarios into the SWAT model, the effects of climate change and land-use change on the mean annual runoff in the Jinghe River Basin were obtained. From the 1980s to the 1990s, the climatic warming-drying alone could reduce the mean annual runoff by 28.08 m3s-1, which is about 314.80% of the actual runoff reduction. Meanwhile, the land-use change alone could increase the mean annual runoff by 26.57 m3s-1, which is about 297.87% of the actual runoff change from the 1980s to the 1990s. Both the climate and land use changes significantly affect the runoff in the Jinghe River Basin.

Cite this article

QIU Guo-yu, YIN Jing, XIONG Yu-jiu, ZHAO Shao-hua, WANG Pei, WU Xiu-qin, ZENG Shuang . Studies on the Effects of Climatic Warming-drying Trend and Land Use Change on the Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2008 , 23(2) : 211 -218 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2008.02.005


[1] 施雅风,沈永平,胡汝骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景的初步探讨[J].科技导报,2003,24(2):54~57. [2] 程国栋,王根绪.中国西北地区的干旱与旱灾——变化趋势与对策[J].地学前沿,2006,13(1):3~14. [3] Neitsch S L, Arnold J G. Soil and water assessment tool theoretical documentation, Version 2000. http://www.brc.tamus.edu/swat.html. [4] Diluzio M, Srintvasan R. Arcview Interface for SWAT2000 User's Guide[Z].2002.13-35. [5] 郝芳华,陈利群,刘昌明,等.土地利用变化对产流和产沙的影响分析[J].水土保持学报,2004,18(3):6~8. [6] 霍永伟.滹沱河流域上游东段不同坡度下土地利用土地覆被变化及其对地表径流的影响研究.石家庄: 河北师范大学,2005. [7] 郑红星,王中根,刘昌明,等.基于GIS/RS的流域水文过程分布式模拟[J].水科学进展,2004,15(4):506~510. [8] 陈军锋,李秀彬.土地覆被变化的水文响应模拟研究[J].应用生态学报,2004,15(5):833~836. [9] 陈军锋,陈秀万.SWAT模型的水量平衡及其在梭磨河流域的应用[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2004,40(2):265~270. [10] 张蕾娜.白河流域土地覆被变化水文效应的分析与模拟.北京:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2004. [11] 车骞.基于SWAT模型的黄河源区分布式水文模拟.兰州:兰州大学,2006. [12] 王兮之,索安宁,洪军,等.泾河典型流域水沙变化及其景观格局分析[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(4):260~263. [13] 王希彪.泾河中上游流域土地利用格局变化与驱动因子分析[J].水土保持学报,2005,19(6):137~152. [14] 冉大川,吴永红.泾河流域水土保持生态环境建设与治理方略刍议[J].水土保持研究,2003,10(2):58~59. [15] Hernandez M, Miller S N, Goodrich D C. Modeling runoff response to land cover and rainfall spatial variability in semi-arid watershed[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,2000,64:285-298. [16] Arnold J G, Srinivasan R, Muttiah R S. Continental scale simulation of the hydrologic balance[J]. Journal of American Water Resources Association,1999,35(5):1037-1051. [17] Sophocleous M A, Kolliker J K, Govindaraju R S. Integrated numerical modeling for basin-wide water management: The case of the Rattlesnake Creek basin in south-central Kansas[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 1999,214:179-196. [18] Fontaine T A, Cruickshank T S, Arnold J G. Development of a snowfall-snowmelt routine for mountainous terrain for the soil water assessment tool (SWAT)[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2002,262:209-223. [19] Eckhardt K, Haverkamp S, Fohrer N. SWAT-G, a version of SWAT99. 2 modified for application to low mountain range catchments[J]. Physics and Chemistry of Earth,2002,27:641-644. [20] 李道峰.黄河河源区径流对土地覆被和气候变化的响应.北京:北京师范大学,2003. [21] 张楠.泾河流域土壤侵蚀分布式模拟.北京:北京师范大学,2005. [22] 王中根,夏军,刘昌明,等.分布式水文模型的参数率定及敏感性分析探讨[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(4):649~654. [23] 朱新军,王中根,李建新,等.SWAT模型在漳卫河流域应用研究[J].地理科学进展,2006,25(5):105~111. [24] 李硕.GIS和遥感辅助下流域模拟的空间离散化与参数化研究.南京:南京师范大学,2002. [25] 邓慧平,李秀彬,张明,等.气候与地表覆被变化对梭磨河流域水文影响的分[J].地理科学,2001,21(6):493~497.