Based on the analysis of nearly thirty years meteorological and hydrological data (1970-2002) and remote sensing data of the 1980s and the 1990s, SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) developed by USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) was adopted to study the change of the eco-hydrological characteristics in the Jinghe River Basin under the conditions of climatic warming-drying trend and aggravated human activities. After model validation and field verification, our results showed that the model SWAT could precisely predict the eco-hydrological processes in the Jinghe River Basin. Results showed that from the 1980s to the 1990s the mean annual precipitation decreased, especially in July, August and September. Affected by climate warming-drying trend and land-use change, the mean annual runoff reduced 8.92 m3s-1. By respectively fixing the climatic factors and the land-use factors in the Jinghe River Basin, and putting the simulated scenarios into the SWAT model, the effects of climate change and land-use change on the mean annual runoff in the Jinghe River Basin were obtained. From the 1980s to the 1990s, the climatic warming-drying alone could reduce the mean annual runoff by 28.08 m3s-1, which is about 314.80% of the actual runoff reduction. Meanwhile, the land-use change alone could increase the mean annual runoff by 26.57 m3s-1, which is about 297.87% of the actual runoff change from the 1980s to the 1990s. Both the climate and land use changes significantly affect the runoff in the Jinghe River Basin.
QIU Guo-yu, YIN Jing, XIONG Yu-jiu, ZHAO Shao-hua, WANG Pei, WU Xiu-qin, ZENG Shuang
. Studies on the Effects of Climatic Warming-drying Trend and Land Use Change on the Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2008
, 23(2)
: 211
-218
.
DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2008.02.005
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