Special Column:Celebration of the 70th Anniversary of IGSNRR, CAS

Analysis of Ecological Sustainability in China Based on the Ecological Footprint Method

  • Geographical Science College, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China

Received date: 2007-08-02

  Revised date: 2007-09-28

  Online published: 2008-03-25


The Ecological Footprint (EF) is a valid method for measuring sustainable development through ecological impact. It has gained much attention in academic, policy-oriented and popular literature since its introduction in the mid-1990s. However, only few studies have addressed the problem of EF in the realm of long time series prediction with nonlinear dynamic model. The fluctuant cycles of China's per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity from 1961 to 2005 are decomposed and picked-up based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method in this paper. Nonlinear dynamic prediction models are presented with the cycles, and per capita EF and BC in China are predicted from 2006 to 2015. This research could be meaningful for predicting regional sustainable development status; at the same time, we hope it would provide new access to effective methodology in predicting and interpreting the EF in long time series.Over last 44 years, the obvious undulation cycles of per capita EF growth in China are 4.3 years, 14.3 years and 17 years. Per capita BC growth in China is 3.5 years, 8.8 years, 17.7 years and 44 years. Per capita EF would decrease from 1.636gha in 2005 to 1.366gha in 2015 and per capita BC in China would increase from 0.925gha in 2005 to 1.108gha in 2015 if their average annual change rates are constant. Per capita ED in China would be 0.258gha in 2015. Therefore, China could denote sustainability at the global level with the growth of economic development, technology advancement, and standard of living enhancement.

Cite this article

CHEN Cheng-zhong, LIN Zhen-shan, LIANG Ren-jun . Analysis of Ecological Sustainability in China Based on the Ecological Footprint Method[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2008 , 23(2) : 230 -236 . DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2008.02.007


[1] 徐中民,张志强.可持续发展定量研究的几种新方法评介[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2000,10(2):60~64. [2] 张丽君.可持续发展指标体系建设的国际进展[J].国土资源情报,2004,(4):7~15. [3] Rees W E. Ecological footprint and appropriated carrying capacity: What urban economics leaves out[J]. Environment and Urbanization,1992,4(2):121-130. [4] Wackernagel M, Rees W E. Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on the Earth [M]. Gabriola Island: New Society Publishers,1996. [5] Wackernagel M, Onisto L, Bello P. National natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept[J].Ecological Economics,1999,29:375-390. [6] World Wildlife Found. Living planet report 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006 .http//www.panda.org/ downloads/general/LPR.2000 (2002, 2004, 2006).pdf. [7] Global Footprint Network, World Wildlife Found, Kadoorie Farms and Botanic Gardens. Asia-Pacific 2005: The ecological footprint and natural wealth. http//www.footprintnetwork.org. [8] Monfreda C. Establishing national natural capital accounts based on detailed ecological footprint and biocapacity assessments[J]. Land Use Policy,2004,21:231-246. [9] Lenzen M, Murray S A. A modified ecological footprint method and its application to Australia[J]. Ecological Economics,2001,37:229-255. [10] 张志强,徐中民,程国栋.生态足迹的概念及计算模型[J].生态经济,2000,(10):8~10. [11] 陈成忠,林振山,陈玲玲.生态足迹与生态承载力非线性动力学分析[J].生态学报,2006,26(11):3812~3816. [12] 符海月,李满春,毛亮,等.基于生态足迹的土地利用规划生态成效定量分析[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(2):225~235. [13] 尤飞,钟有丽,王传胜.生态经济持续性的度量和趋势预测[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(6):743~749. [14] 韩晓卓,张彦宇,李自珍.生态足迹时间序列趋势外推分析的一种新方法及其应用[J].草业学报,2006,15(5):129~134. [15] 林振山,汪曙光.近四百年北半球气温变化的分析:EMD方法的应用[J].热带气象学报,2004, 20(1):90~96. [16] 刘会玉,林振山,张明阳.基于EMD的我国粮食产量波动及其成因多尺度分析[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(5):745~751. [17] 刘宇辉.中国1961~2001年人地协调度演变分析[J].经济地理,2005,25(2):219~222. [18] 国家统计局.中国统计年鉴(2003~2006)[Z].北京:中国统计出版社,2004~2007. [19] FAO. http://faostat.fao.orgdefault.jsp/language=CN. [20] 亚太区发展.生态大考验. http://www.wwfchina.org/wwfpress/presscenter/pressdetail.shtm/id=337.