Owing to the effects of changing environment,such as human activities and climate,the natural annual runoff series for water resources evaluation calculation lost their consistency.In order to adapt to a changing environment demand for inconsistent annual runoff forecast,multi-level recursive method is applied.Different from previous mathematical statistic method with fixed-parameters,the multi-level recursive method is the one just dealing with the time-space variation system.The dependability of forecasted results will be enhanced because the regime of runoff is forecasted based the time-varying parameters forecasted in the model.The paper will illustrate the method by taking Zhuqi station of Minjiang River as an example,and the results will provide scientific basis for planning water use in the future.
FANG Yan-na, CHEN Xing-wei, YANG Qing-chun
. Application of Multi-level Recursive Method in Forecasting Inconsistent Annual Runoff Series under Changing Environment[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2008
, 23(3)
: 528
-533
.
DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2008.03.020
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