Rapid urbanization often results in intensive land use change especially in the urban area of China. Simulation of urban expansion thus captures increasing research interests. Taking the metropolitan area of Hangzhou as a case study, this paper utilized the urban growth model of SLEUTH to forecast the urban growth of Hangzhou in four alternative scenarios based on four Landsat TM/ETM+ images(e.g. 1991, 1996, 2000 and 2005). Through generating buffers from the CBD and urban fringe area, the research explored the past change process and projected the future urban pattern. The results indicated that Compare and Lee-sallee were 0.95 and 0.59 respectively in the calibration process of SLEUTH, and the amount and morphology of simulatcd urban were more consistent with actual situation in 2005 than in the past. Due to the complex behavior of urban systems, SLEUTH was unable to simulate wave-like process of urban growth and potential development. Based on different assumptions, four scenarios were simulated by SLEUTH model, which included Maintain Status Quo, Expanded Roads, Moderate Farmland Protection and Compact City. The urbanization process could be divided into three phases including radial urban growth from 1991 to 1996, spatially contiguous expansion from 1996 to 2000, and multi-nuclear development from 2000 to 2005.Urban area would increase linearly and urban morphology would continue to be multi-nuclear from projected scenarios. The hotspot area featured by intensive urban growth would shift from urban center to new developed area outside. The growth intensity declined in power function and it would be less in the future than in the past. It would decrease gradually in the area with the radius of 12 km from CBD or 500 m from urban fringe. Urban area would increase by 189 km2 and farmland would reduce by 9 km2 per year from the result of MSQ. Urban area would be restricted by MFP from urban encroachment, and pushed to new developed area by ER from over crowded area and concentrated in the edge of the existing urban area by CC. Urban plan and land use planning can help to save farmland and adjust urban morphology.
LIU Yong, WU Ci-fang, YUE Wen-ze, HUANG Jing-nan
. Applying SLEUTH for Simulating Urban Expansion of Hangzhou[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2008
, 23(5)
: 797
-807
.
DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2008.05.007
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