
Effects of climate change and land use change on runoff, sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus losses in the Haihe River Basin
DING Nan, LI Yi-bo, TAO Fu-lu
JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2024, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (7) : 1720-1734.
Effects of climate change and land use change on runoff, sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus losses in the Haihe River Basin
The Haihe River Basin plays an important role in the sustainable economic development of the national economy and is also one of the most water-scare regions in China. Densely populated, long-term inappropriate human activities and climate change have exacerbated the problems of soil erosion and water scarcity in the region. Therefore, studying the effects of climate change and land use on runoff, sediment, and nitrogen and phosphorus losses in the Haihe River Basin provides not only theoretical support for the early warning of water and sand hazards in the region, but also an important scientific basis for understanding the evolutionary pattern of the basin's ecological environment. In this study, we analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of climate, land use, evapotranspiration (ET), normalized vegetation index (NDVI), and net primary productivity (NPP) in the Haihe River Basin from 1985 to 2015 and their influence mechanisms. The results show that: (1) There are significant geographical differences in the correlations among the variables (ET, NDVI, NPP, runoff, sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus, etc.) in the six sub-basins of the Haihe River Basin. (2) Temperature and precipitation directly affect runoff, and thus indirectly affect sediment and nitrogen and phosphorus losses. (3) ET is directly affected by both temperature and precipitation, and it directly affects runoff, and then indirectly affects sediment and nitrogen and phosphorus losses. The paper reveals the influence of climate and land use changes on runoff, sediment and nitrogen and phosphorus losses over the past 30 years, which is of great significance to the understanding of the evolution of the ecological environment of the basin and its regulation.
Haihe River Basin / land use / climate change / ecohydrology {{custom_keyword}} /
Fig. 2 Land use change in the Haihe River Basin from 1985 to 2015图2 1985—2015年海河流域土地利用变化 |
Table 1 Area conversion among land use types in Haihe River Basin (km2)表1 海河流域各用地类型之间的面积转换 |
用地类型变化 | 耕地 | 林地 | 草地 | 未利用地 | 城镇建设用地 | 水域 | 面积变化 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
耕地 | 133085 | 480 | 259 | 469 | 5897 | 45 | -7150 |
林地 | 275 | 56415 | 671 | 16 | 230 | 5 | -1197 |
草地 | 425 | 258 | 56641 | 97 | 391 | 151 | -1322 |
未利用地 | 568 | 39 | 26 | 4942 | 177 | 18 | -828 |
城镇建设用地 | 46 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 16628 | 0 | -66 |
水域 | 124 | 1 | 166 | 30 | 63 | 1958 | -894 |
面积变化 | +1438 | +781 | +1127 | +624 | +6758 | +219 |
注:“+”表示相应的用地类型面积增加;“-”表示相应的用地类型面积减少。 |
Fig. 4 Annual variation trend of related indicators for the Luanhe River and Chaobai River from 1985 to 2015图4 1985—2015年滦河和潮白河相关指标年际变化趋势 |
Fig. 5 Annual variation trend of related indicators for the Yongding River and Daqing River from 1985 to 2015图5 1985—2015年永定河和大清河相关指标年际变化趋势 |
Table 2 Partial correlation analysis of correlation coefficient r among some indicators表2 部分指标之间偏相关分析相关系数r |
相关系数 r | 温度- NDVI | 降雨- NPP | 降雨- NDVI | 径流- 降雨 | 温度- ET | 降雨- ET | 温度- 泥沙 | 耕地- ET | 林地- ET | 林地- 径流 | 林地- 泥沙 | 林地- 施肥量 | 林地- 降雨 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
滦河 | 0.058 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.66 | 0.38 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.53 | -0.42 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.23 |
潮白河 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.44 | 0.79 | 0.4 | 0.18 | 0.076 | 0.46 | -0.53 | 0.83 | 0.55 | 0.48 | 0.56 |
永定河 | 0.09 | 0.39 | 0.19 | 0.57 | 0.49 | 0.4 | -0.34 | 0.4 | -0.37 | 0.033 | 0.44 | -0.51 | 0.26 |
大清河 | 0.62 | 0.34 | 0.09 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.12 | -0.47 | 0.21 | -0.11 | 0.68 | 0.29 | -0.79 | 0.05 |
子牙河 | 0.72 | 0.23 | 0.33 | 0.52 | 0.67 | 0.23 | -0.63 | 0.39 | 0.06 | 0.39 | -0.92 | 0.94 | 0.14 |
南运河 | 0.13 | 0.28 | 0.022 | 0.48 | 0.23 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.62 | -0.27 | -0.04 | 0.15 | -0.12 | 0.12 |
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曹晓娟, 谢林妤, 张风宝, 等. 沙层特性对沙盖黄土坡面产流产沙变化贡献的定量分析. 地理学报, 2019, 74(5): 962-974.
沙盖黄土坡面产流产沙方式独特,侵蚀过程复杂,量化降雨过程中该类坡面产流产沙变化影响因素贡献的大小对揭示其侵蚀机理具有重要的意义。基于室内模拟降雨试验,定量分析沙层厚度(2 cm、5 cm和10 cm)和粒径组成(100%粒径≤ 0.25 mm、75%粒径≤ 0.25 mm +25%粒径> 0.25 mm、50%粒径≤ 0.25 mm+50%粒径> 0.25 mm、未处理原沙和100%粒径> 0.25 mm)在降雨过程中对产流产沙变化的影响和贡献。结果显示:沙层厚度增加能明显延长产流时间,减少总产流量,增加总产沙量,增大降雨过程中产流产沙的变异性;随沙层粒径组成变粗,初始产流时间和产沙量无明显变化规律,产流量有增大趋势。沙层厚度、粒径组成及二者交互作用对初始产流时间变化的贡献率分别为68.03%、15.77%和3.85%。沙层厚度对降雨不同时段15 min产流量和不同历时总产流量的贡献率分别在23.89%~52.22%和41.10%~48.94%之间,对相应产沙的贡献率分别在29.19%~62.01%和13.53%~30.31%之间。整体上沙层粒径组成变化对产流产沙量变化的贡献率小于沙层厚度,且无明显规律。沙层厚度和粒径组成交互作用对产流量和降雨中前期产沙量的影响显著(p
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<p id="C3">Loess slopes covered with aeolian sand are unique geomorphic features in the wind-water erosion crisscross region on the Chinese Loess Plateau. On these loess slopes, runoff and sediment production patterns are unique and complex and the thickness of covering sand and its interaction with other factors may largely interfere soil erosional responses. Therefore, quantifying the variations of runoff and sediment yields and assessing the possible factors are of great importance to understand the erosion mechanism in such unique landscapes. To quantify the effects of sand layer thickness and sand size composition on runoff generation and sediment yield, sand-covered loess slopes with 15° were subject to simulated rainfall events (intensity 1.5 mm/min) in this study. Sand layers of three different thicknesses, 2 cm, 5 cm and 10 cm, were respectively placed on loess surface. For each sand thickness, there were five kinds of compositions, i.e. 100% sand diameter ≤ 0.25 mm, 75% sand diameter ≤ 0.25 mm + 25% sand diameter > 0.25 mm, 50% sand diameter ≤ 0.25 mm + 50% sand diameter > 0.25 mm, untreated sand, and 100% sand diameter > 0.25 mm. Our results show that as sand thickness increased, it prolonged initiation time of runoff, reduced runoff yield, increased sediment yield and enhanced the variability in runoff and soil loss rates during rainfall. Our findings also indicate that with coarser sand, the total runoff loss tended to increase even though the initiation time of runoff and sediment yield was not obviously changed. The sand layer thickness, sand size composition, and their interactions respectively contributed 68.03%, 15.77%, and 3.85% to the variation of initiation time of runoff (<i>p </i>< 0.05), respectively. For the runoff production, the sand layer thickness can explain 23.89% to 52.22% of the variation of runoff rates during a 15-min rainfall sub-rainfall, and 41.10% to 48.94% of total runoff loss for different rainfall durations. For the sediment production, the sand layer thickness can explain 29.19% to 62.01% of the variation of soil loss rates during a 15-min rainfall sub-rainfall, and 13.53% to 30.31% the total sediment yield for different rainfall durations. Moreover, the sand size composition had less impact on runoff and sediment yields than the thickness of the sand layers. Their combined effects were significant during the early and intermediate stages (<i>p </i>< 0.05), and contributed to 13.12%-26.62% of runoff loss and 3.22%-43.12% of sediment yield. Overall our observations suggest that runoff and sediment generation on sand-covered loess slopes were mainly affected by the sand layer thickness rather than sand size composition, and their combined effects also varied as erosion proceeded.</p>
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马恩朴, 蔡建明, 林静, 等. 近30年中国农业源氮磷排放的格局特征与水环境影响. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(3): 752-770.
揭示农业源氮磷排放的空间格局、变化特征及其与水环境状况的关系,对于农业面源污染治理投入的合理配置以及区域农业生产结构优化均至关重要。基于这种认识,建立参数化估算模型测算了1990—2017年中国省域尺度的农业源氮磷排放;从总排放量、单位面积排放量和排放重心迁移三个方面研究农业源氮磷排放的变化特征,并通过相关分析与回归分析揭示农业源氮磷排放与水环境状况的关系。研究发现:1990—2017年中国农业源氮磷排放整体上呈随机分布,表明氮磷排放在省际之间并无显著的相互依赖性,主要受省内因素影响。研究期内年均氮磷总排放量最高的省份依次是河南、山东、四川、湖北、河北、安徽和江苏省,格局特征相对稳定但排放重心经历了东西向的往复式转移并具有北偏西方向的总体转移趋势,其中,氮、磷排放的重心分别向北偏西33.52°和15.45°方向转移了33.94 km及52.31 km。在格局研究基础上,结合空间维的格局特征和时间维的变化特征,将31个省份的氮磷排放划分为高排放增长型、高排放平稳型、高排放倒“U”型、中排放增长型、中排放倒“U”型、低排放增长型、低排放倒“U”型和低排放近似“U”型八类,并利用2017年的自动监测站水质数据进一步验证了氮磷排放与水环境状况的关系。研究结果可作为农业面源污染治理中重点区域瞄准的依据。
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刘剑宇, 张强, 陈喜, 等. 气候变化和人类活动对中国地表水文过程影响定量研究. 地理学报, 2016, 71(11): 1875-1885.
利用中国372个水文站月径流数据(1960-2000年)及41个水文站年径流数据(2001-2014年),采用基于Budyko假设的水热耦合平衡方程,构建气候变化和人类活动对径流变化影响定量评估模型,在Penman-Monteith潜在蒸发分析基础上,进一步分析气象因子对径流变化的弹性系数,量化气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明:① 中国北方地区流域径流变化对各气象因子弹性系数明显大于中国南方地区。就全国而言,径流变化对各因子的弹性系数为:降水>土地利用/土地覆盖变化(LUCC)>相对湿度>太阳辐射>最高气温>风速>最低气温;② 1980-2000年,气候变化总体上有利于增加中国年径流量,而降水对年径流量增加的贡献最为显著;③ 1980-2000年,中国南方流域中,气候变化对年径流变化的影响以增加作用为主,而北方流域,以减少年径流作用为主。对中国大多数流域径流变化而言,人类活动的影响主要以减少年径流量为主。2001-2014年,气候变化以减少径流量为主,人类活动对径流变化的影响程度明显增强,气候变化与人类活动对径流变化的贡献率分别为53.5%、46.5%。该研究对气候变化与人类活动影响下,中国水资源规划管理、防灾减灾及保障水资源安全具有重要理论与现实意义。
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Based on monthly streamflow data from 372 stations covering the period 1960-2000 and the monthly streamflow data from 41 stations covering the period 2001-2014 across China, human- and climate-induced impacts on hydrological processes were quantified for 10 river basins in China based on development of Budyko-based coupled water-energy balance model. Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration model was used to analyze evapotranspiration processes. Besides, elasticity coefficient was also quantified for the impacts of meteorological variables on streamflow changes. The results indicated that: (1) Compared to southern China, streamflow changes are more sensitive to climate changes and human activities in northern China. Generally, relative humidity changes have positive impacts on streamflow changes. However, the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and LUCC changes tend to go against streamflow changes. The elasticity coefficients of streamflow changes for meteorological variables are: precipitation > LUCC > relative humidity > solar radiation > maximum temperature > wind speed > minimum temperature; (2) Climate changes during 1980-2000 generally help to increase annual streamflow, and the increase of streamflow by precipitation changes is most evident, and the increase of streamflow depth reaches 12.1 mm. However, impacts of meteorological variables on streamflow changes are shifting from one river basin to another, e.g. the maximum temperature and relative humidity help to increase streamflow in northern China but decrease streamflow magnitude in southern China; (3) In general, human activities tend to decrease streamflow. Changes of streamflow in the Yangtze, Songhua, Northwest, and Southeast river basins are 78.7%, 76.9%, 65.7%, and 84.2%, respectively, which can be attributed to climate changes. However, human activities play a dominant role in modifications of streamflow changes, such as Pearl River basin, Huaihe River basin, Haihe River basin, Yellow River basin, Liaohe River basin and southwest river basins, with fractional contribution being 59.4%, 77.3%, 66.2%, 69.7%, 75.3%, and 70.4%, respectively. Generally, the fraction of human activities and climate changes to streamflow changes in the river basins across China can reach 71.0% and 29.0% respectively in river basins, where climate changes play a dominant role in streamflow changes. The results of this study can be helpful to human mitigation to climate changes in terms of water resources management. {{custom_citation.content}}
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李晓蕾, 王卫光, 张淑林, 等. 基于CMIP6多模式的长江流域未来降水变化趋势分析. 中国农村水利水电, 2022, (3): 1-7.
伴随全球气候持续增暖,长江流域生态环境和水资源极易受到影响,对该地区的未来降水变化趋势进行分析研究,可为长江流域水资源管理和生态保护提供理论依据。基于偏差校正后的第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)13个全球气候模式输出的降水数据以及观测降水数据,评估了1995-2014年气候模式在长江流域的降水模拟能力,并且对4个SSP情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5)下长江流域2021-2040年(近期)、2041-2070年(中期)以及2071-2100年(末期)的降水时空变化趋势进行分析。结果表明:①偏差校正后的模式数据在时空尺度上能很好地模拟出长江流域降水的特点,与观测值较为接近;②未来情景下长江流域年降水量随着辐射强迫水平的上升,增加趋势越大。相对于历史时期(1995-2014年),各情景下流域年降水在近期的增长都比较平缓,在末期降水增幅最大。季节降水总体表现为冬季变化率最大,春夏季降水增幅较平缓,秋季除了SSP3-7.0情景下前期的降水变化率为负值,其他情景和时段下都以较低的变化率缓慢增长。③空间上,年降水变化率较大的区域集中在降水相对较少的长江源区和中上游地区;春季降水变化率高值中心在源头区和中上游北部地区,而在流域的南部地区降水变化率较低;夏季和秋季的降水增量偏低,在中上游北部地区近期和中期降水量都较历史时期的有所下降;在冬季,全流域的降水都有增加,表现为长江流域北部地区降水变化率最大,南部地区变化率偏小。
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Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.© 2022. The Author(s).
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刘晓燕, 党素珍, 刘昌明. 天桥泉域与黄河河段的补径排关系变化及其对河川径流的影响. 地理学报, 2016, 71(1): 66-74.
1973年以来,黄河中游河口镇至吴堡之间未控区的实测径流量大幅减少,甚至1/4年份出现负值;基于1956-1972年的降雨--径流关系,1973-2014年降雨条件的径流量偏少84%.分析认为,1973年以后,黄河该河段干流水库蓄水运行导致天桥泉域与黄河之间的补径排关系发生了变化,此变化不仅大幅减少了左岸泉水对黄河的补给量,而且增加了黄河向右岸岩溶含水层的渗漏量,是河口镇至吴堡之间未控区的实测径流大幅偏少的主要原因.本文通过不同时期的降雨径流关系对比,以及林草植被,梯田,用水和坝库水面蒸发等其他下垫面因素减水作用分析,推算出因泉水--河水补给关系变化而产生的黄河径流减少量,平均每年约6~8亿m<sup>3</sup>.
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Since 1973, the observed runoff of the uncontrolled areas of the section between Hekouzhen and Wubao of the Yellow River has remarkably decreased, or even, it had been dried up for a quarter of the years; based on the rainfall-runoff relationship between 1956 to 1972, the observed runoff decreased by 84% under the rainfall condition from 1973 to 2014. In this paper, the analysis results showed that the relationship between recharge, runoff and drainage of groundwater and in the Tianqiao spring region of the Yellow River has changed because of reservoir operation along the main stream of this section. This not only significantly reduced the spring recharge into the Yellow River on the left bank, but also increased the amount of leakage to the karst aquifer on the right bank. It is the main reason for the remarkable observed runoff reduction of the uncontrolled areas of section between Hekouzhen and Wubao of the Yellow River. In comparison of rainfall-runoff relationships in different periods, and analysis of water reducing effect of other underlying factors, such as vegetation, terraces and surface water evaporation of dams, the calculation results showed that changes of the recharge relationship between spring water and runoff resulted in runoff reduction of about 600-800 million m3 per year on average in the Yellow River. {{custom_citation.content}}
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刘晓燕, 刘昌明, 杨胜天, 等. 基于遥感的黄土高原林草植被变化对河川径流的影响分析. 地理学报, 2014, 69(11): 1595-1603.
从黄土高原不同地貌区降雨产流机制入手,分析了林草植被影响流域水循环的可能环节;利用20世纪70年代以来不同时期的土地利用和植被盖度解译成果,以及同期实测的降雨和径流数据、供用水数据等,引入林草植被覆盖率、径流系数、产洪系数和基流系数等概念,从流域尺度上构建了林草植被覆盖率与河川径流的定量响应关系,结果发现,在半湿润或半干旱的黄土区,径流系数和产洪系数都将随林草植被的改善而减少,气候越干旱、径流或洪量减少越多;与同气候带的黄土区相比,盖沙黄土区林草植被改善所导致的减水量更大。不过,当林草植被覆盖率大于60%后,产洪系数变化减缓;最终河川径流将稳定在大于基流的某阈值附近。
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The impact of vegetation coverage on flood or runoff yield in the Loess Plateau has been extensively studied, but the research has been primarily based on observations from slope runoff plots or secondary forest regions. This paper is based on vegetation information from remote sensing images, measured rainfall and runoff data and water consumed from the related basin in Loess Plateau over nearly 50 years. By introducing the concepts of runoff yield coefficient, flood yield coefficient, base flow yield coefficient, and the percentage of effective vegetation, we proposed the quantitative relation between vegetation coverage extracted from remote sensing images and runoff yield at the watershed scale. The response relations reveal that the runoff yield and flood volume will decrease with the increase of shrubs-herbs-arbor vegetation, especially in the dryer region, and the reduction of the runoff in sand-covered loess region is even more than that in the loess region with similar climate. But the flood volume will be kept at a stable level, when the percentage of effective vegetation is larger than 60%. The river's runoff will be stable at a threshold, which is more than its base-flow at last, with a further increase of vegetation. {{custom_citation.content}}
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This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.
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王富强, 王金杰, 石家豪. 基于SWAT模型的区域农业干旱模拟研究. 华北水利水电大学学报: 自然科学版, 2019, 40(1): 64-70.
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陈亮, 董晓华, 李英海, 等. 基于SWAT模型的黄柏河东支流域气候变化的水文响应研究. 三峡大学学报: 自然科学版, 2019, 41(2): 1-5.
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田晶, 郭生练, 刘德地, 等. 气候与土地利用变化对汉江流域径流的影响. 地理学报, 2020, 75(11): 2307-2318.
作为联结大气圈和地圈的纽带,水文循环同时承受气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)的双重影响,然而大多数的水文响应研究主要关注未来气候变化对径流的影响,忽略了未来LUCC的作用。因此,本文的研究目的是评估未来气候变化和LUCC对径流的共同影响。首先采用2种全球气候模式(BCC-CSM1.1和BNU-ESM)输出,基于DBC降尺度模型得到未来气候变化情景;然后,利用CA-Markov模型预测未来LUCC情景;最后,通过设置不同的气候和LUCC情景组合,采用SWAT模型模拟汉江流域的未来径流过程,定量评估气候变化和LUCC对径流的影响。结果表明:① 未来时期汉江流域的年降水量、日最高、最低气温相较于基准期(1966—2005年),在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5浓度路径下,分别增加4.0%、1.8 ℃、1.6 ℃和3.7%、2.5 ℃、2.3 ℃;② 2010—2050年间,流域内林地和建设用地的面积占比将分别增加2.8%和1.2%,而耕地和草地面积占比将分别减少1.5%和2.5%;③ 与单一气候变化或LUCC情景相比,气候变化和LUCC共同影响下的径流变化幅度最大,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5浓度路径下未来时期年平均径流分别增加5.10%、2.67%,且气候变化对径流的影响显著大于LUCC。本文的研究结果将有助于维护未来气候变化和LUCC共同影响下汉江流域的水资源规划与管理。
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As a link between the atmosphere and the geosphere, the hydrological cycle is affected by both climate change and Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC). However, most existing research on runoff response focused mainly on the impact of the projected climate variation, neglecting the influence of future LUCC variability. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the co-impacts of both projected climate change and LUCC on runoff generation. Firstly, the future climate scenarios under BCC-CSM1.1 and BNU-ESM are both downscaled and corrected by the Daily Bias Correction (DBC) model. Secondly, the LUCC scenarios are predicted based on the Cellular Automaton-Markov (CA-Markov) model. Finally, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate the hydrological process under different combinations of climate and LUCC scenarios, with the attempt to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of climate change and LUCC on runoff generation. In this study, the Hanjiang River basin is used as the case study area. The results show that: (1) compared with the base period (1966-2005), the annual rainfall, daily maximum and minimum air temperatures during 2021-2060 will have an increase of 4.0%, 1.8 ℃, 1.6 ℃ in RCP4.5 scenario, respectively, while 3.7%, 2.5 ℃, 2.3 ℃ in RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. (2) During 2010-2050, the area proportions of forest land and construction land in the study area will increase by 2.8% and 1.2%, respectively, while those of farmland and grassland will decrease by 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively. (3) Compared with the single climate change or LUCC scenario, the variation range of future runoff under both climate and LUCC is the largest, and the influence of climate change on future runoff is significantly greater than that of LUCC. This study is helpful to maintain the future water resources planning and management of the Hanjiang River basin under future climate and LUCC scenarios. {{custom_citation.content}}
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杨泽龙, 李艳忠, 梁康, 等. 植被恢复背景下黄河中游及6个典型流域蒸散发及其组分变化格局. 自然资源学报, 2022, 37(3): 816-828.
植被变化可通过改变下垫面条件的方式,调节植被蒸腾与土壤蒸发的分配比例,进而影响区域乃至全球水循环过程。自20世纪90年代以来,我国开展了大规模的植被恢复工程,全国植被覆盖度得到了极大提高,其中尤以黄河中游最为显著。以黄河中游6个典型植被恢复流域为研究对象,利用PML_V2模型和水文气象数据,验证了该模型模拟植被快速变化环境下的蒸散性能,并分析了2003—2018年间植被恢复工程背景下,黄河中游蒸散发(ET)及其组分(植被蒸腾Ec,截留蒸发Ei,土壤蒸发Es)的时空变化格局。结果表明:(1)对比流域水量平衡ET与PML模型结果,发现该模型在黄河中游具有较好的适用性(NSE >0.6)。(2)Ec对ET的分布格局起着主导作用,蒸散发及其组分的空间格局由夏季风作用下的植被空间分布所控制。Ec与ET的空间分布格局较为相似,Es与其相反。ET、Ec、Ei均呈显著增加趋势,Es则呈显著减小趋势,尤以流域中下游最为明显。(3)植被恢复背景下,黄河中游典型流域的蒸散发及其组分发生了明显的变化。相较于所在流域,流域中植被恢复区ET、Ec、Es、Ei分别偏高2.20%、5.86%、0.86%、7.44%,速率分别偏高-0.51 mm/a、0.55 mm/a、-1.11 mm/a、0.05 mm/a。
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吴立钰, 张璇, 李冲, 等. 气候变化和人类活动对伊逊河流域径流变化的影响. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(7): 1744-1756.
借助Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检验对气象水文序列进行一致性分析,划分基准期(1961—1979年)和影响期(① 1980—1989年、② 1990—1999年、③ 2000—2016年),利用基准期校准的可变下渗容量(VIC)模型,采用步进式方法,探究气候变化和人类活动对伊逊河流域径流变化的波动影响过程。结果表明:研究区近56年年均气温显著升高,年降水量无明显变化趋势,流域年径流量下降趋势明显,季节尺度上流域非汛期降水量增加显著。气候变化和人类活动均会对径流产生显著影响且作用机理复杂,步进式方法对影响机理的研究较传统方法更能体现其变化过程;在降水丰沛的影响 ② 期,冬季降水量增加会显著增加流域径流量,而在降水略少的影响 ① 期和 ③ 期,蒸发量增加以及土壤含水量降低使得流域径流减少;人类活动耗水在影响 ① 期和 ③ 期引起流域径流减少并且影响作用逐渐增强,影响 ② 期由于城镇化和耕地扩张使得流域产流能力增强导致径流增加。深入研究气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响机制,可为流域水资源管理和规划提供理论依据。
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