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Spatio-temporal patterns of the land carrying capacity in the Belt and Road region based on human-cereals relationship
ZHANG Chao, YANG Yan-zhao, FENG Zhi-ming, LANG Ting-ting, LIU Ying
JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2022, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3) : 616-626.
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Spatio-temporal patterns of the land carrying capacity in the Belt and Road region based on human-cereals relationship
({{custom_author.role_en}}), {{javascript:window.custom_author_en_index++;}}The countries along the Belt and Road are major population agglomeration areas in the world. Focusing on the relationship between humans and cereals, we examined the spatio-temporal patterns of the land resource carrying capacity during 1995-2017 from the whole region and national scale. The results showed that, during the study period: (1) The total and per capita cultivated land of the countries along the Belt and Road dropped to 696 million hectares and 0.15 hm2/person, which are respectively about 50% and 80% of the global level. The per capita cultivated land is declining in around 80% of the countries. (2) The carrying capacity of land resources increased to 4.60 billion people. The carrying capacity of nearly 90% of the countries was increasing, but that of most countries in West Asia and the Middle East declined. (3) The average carrying capacity of land resources increased to 90 persons/km2, which is 1.5 times at the global level; in Bangladesh, Hungary and Vietnam, it exceeded 300 persons/km2. (4) The human-cereals relationship had shifted from overloading to critical overloading. Countries with cereals surpluses increased, especially large cereals-producing countries with much cultivated land and better production conditions. The land has still overloaded for half of the countries in the Belt and Road, and these countries are mostly located in arid climate or islands zones. The results will contribute to strengthening cooperation between countries in the Belt and Road region for food security and improving the scientific nature of project construction layout.
cultivated resources / land resource carrying capacity / human-cereals relationship / spatio-temporal pattern / countries along the Belt and Road {{custom_keyword}} /
Table 1 Countries along the Belt and Road表1 “一带一路”沿线国家 |
| 六大区域 | 国家名称 | 数量/个 |
|---|---|---|
| 中亚 | 哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦 | 5 |
| 中蒙俄 | 中国、蒙古国、俄罗斯 | 3 |
| 东南亚 | 越南、老挝、柬埔寨、泰国、马来西亚、新加坡、印度尼西亚、文莱、菲律宾、缅甸、东帝汶 | 11 |
| 南亚 | 印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、阿富汗、尼泊尔、不丹、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫 | 8 |
| 中东欧 | 波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、塞尔维亚、黑山、北马其顿、波黑、阿尔巴尼亚、爱沙尼亚、立陶宛、拉脱维亚、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦 | 19 |
| 西亚及中东 | 土耳其、伊朗、叙利亚、伊拉克、阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、巴林、科威特、黎巴嫩、阿曼、也门、约旦、以色列、巴勒斯坦、亚美尼亚、格鲁吉亚、阿塞拜疆、埃及 | 19 |
Table 2 The evaluation criteria base on CLCCI for cultivated land carrying capacity表2 基于CLCCI 的土地资源承载力分级评价标准 |
| 类型 | 土地资源 承载状态 | 土地资源 承载指数 | 人均粮食 占有量/(kg/人) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 粮食盈余 | 富富有余 | ≤0.5 | ≥760 |
| 盈余 | 0.5~0.875 | 434~760 | |
| 人粮平衡 | 平衡有余 | 0.875~1.0 | 380~434 |
| 临界超载 | 1.0~1.125 | 338~380 | |
| 人口超载 | 超载 | 1.125~1.5 | 253~338 |
| 严重超载 | >1.5 | <253 |
Fig. 2 Cultivated land carrying capacity in the countries along the Belt and Road and the world during 1995-2017图2 1995—2017年“一带一路”沿线国家与全球土地资源承载力 |
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Table 1 Countries along the Belt and RoadTable 2 The evaluation criteria base on CLCCI for cultivated land carrying capacity
Fig. 1 The per capita cultivated land in the countries along the Belt and Road in 2017Fig. 2 Cultivated land carrying capacity in the countries along the Belt and Road and the world during 1995-2017Fig. 3 The per capita cultivated land carrying capacity in the countries along the Belt and Road and the world during 1995-2017Fig. 4 The spatial patterns of cultivated land carrying capacity in the countries along the Belt and Road in 1995 and 2017Fig. 5 The spatial patterns of per capita cultivated land carrying capacity in the countries along the Belt and Road in 1995 and 2017Fig. 6 The spatial patterns of cultivated land carrying status in the countries along the Belt and Road in 1995 and 2017/
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