With the development of technological revolution and industrial transformation, the global supply and demand situation of metal resources have undergone significant adjustments. The United States, Japan, European Union and other major developed countries continue forcing China to open the preponderant metal supply in the existing multilateral trading system. Evaluating the risk of China’s preponderant metals’ supplying global demand is significant to guarantee the national metal resource security. Based on defining the scope of China’s preponderant metals, this paper gives a quantitative assessment on the risk of China’s preponderant metals’ supplying global demand from three dimensions: reliability, sustainability and affordability. The results show that: 1) The overall supply risk of China’s preponderant metals is high. Indium and bismuth are in high risk, having risk scores over 80; Antimony, germanium, barium, magnesium, tungsten and rare earth are in mid-high risk, having risk scores between 60-80; only gallium and strontium are in mid-risk, having risk scores between 40-60. 2) The reliability risk of barium is the highest which is 81.88, followed by the reliability risk of antimony which is 81.32, and rare earth has the lowest reliability risk which is only 42.42. Indium has the highest sustainability risk which is 81.80, while antimony has the lowest sustainability risk which is 69.46. Indium also has the highest affordability risk which is up to 100, followed by bismuth which has the affordability risk score of 89.23, and barium has the lowest affordability risk which is just 33.96. 3) With the rapid development of emerging industries, the supply risk of antimony, germanium, barium, magnesium, tungsten, indium and bismuth will increase in 2025. More severe supply circumstances will be faced by China’s preponderant metals.
Key words
China's preponderant metal /
emerging industry /
global demand /
metal resource security /
supply risk
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Footnotes
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Funding
National Social Science Foundation of China, No. 14ZDB136 and 13BGL105;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 71633006;Innovation Platform Open Foundation of Education Department in Hunan Provincial, No. 16K101;Graduate Student Innovation Project of Central South University, No. 2017zzts283
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