Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Climate Change in the Loess Plateau from 1901 to 2014

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.20170186

PDF(9233 KB)

JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4) : 621-633. DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20170186

Resource Evaluation

Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Climate Change in the Loess Plateau from 1901 to 2014

REN Jing-yu^1a, PENG Shou-zhang^1b,2, CAO Yang^1b,2, HUO Xiao-ying^1a, CHEN Yun-ming^1b,2

Author information +

History +

Abstract

Climate change has a significant influence on the environment and economy in the Loess Plateau (LP) region. Studying the spatio-temporal trends of climate change at the fine scale would be conductive to develop flexible adaptation and mitigation strategies against the climate change issues in this region. This study downscaled CRU climate data from 1901 to 2014 to spatial resolution of 1 km using the Delta downscaling method and evaluated the monthly climate change in this region. The spatio-temporal characteristics of the climate in this region were analyzed with the anomalies method, Mann-Kendall trend test, and Sen’s slope estimation method. The results are as following: 1) The Delta downscaling method performs well in generating monthly precipitation and temperature data with 1 km spatial resolution. Among the four interpolation methods, the bilinear interpolation is the best method for the downscaling process. 2) During 1901-2014, the annual precipitation had no significant trend, while the annual average temperature presented a significant increasing trend with 0.1 ℃/10 a. Compared with the average level of the climate during 1961-1990, the climate in 1960s was cold and wet, while it was dry and warm after 1980. The annual precipitation in the west of the LP region (accounting for 3.05% of the area) showed a significant increasing trend during 1901-2014, ranging from 0.24 mm/10 a to 3.52 mm/10 a. The annual average temperature in region other than the west of the LP region (accounting for 91.30% of the area) showed a significantly increasing trend ranging from 0.02 ℃/10 a to 0.17 ℃/10 a during 1901-2014, and the magnitudes of the trend increased from southwest to northeast. 3) During 1981-2010, the climate in the west of the LP region (accounting for 92.02% of the area) was drier and warmer than it was during 1961-1990, while in the rest region (accounting for 7.98% of the area) it became wetter and warmer. The annual precipitation in Minhe and region south to Minhe (accounting for 0.05% area) presented a significantly increasing trend during 1981-2010, ranging from17.25 mm/10 a to 27.93 mm/10 a. The annual average temperature in region other than the west of the LP region (accounting for 87.61% of the area) had a significantly increasing trend during 1981-2010, ranging from 0.23 ℃/10 a to 0.71 ℃/10 a. These results could provide a scientific basis for developing strategies addressing global climate change issues in the LP region.

Key words

climate change / Delta downscaling method / Mann-Kendall trend test / Sen's slope estimation method / the Loess Plateau

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations

REN Jing-yu, PENG Shou-zhang, CAO Yang, HUO Xiao-ying, CHEN Yun-ming. Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Climate Change in the Loess Plateau from 1901 to 2014[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2018, 33(4): 621-633 https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20170186

References

[1] PACHAURI R K, ALLEN M R, BARROS V R, et al.Climate Change 2014: Synthesis report[M]// PACHAURI R K, MEYER L. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland, IPCC, 2014.
[2] WANG C H, LI J, LI X L, et al.Analysis on quasi-periodic characteristics of precipitation in recent 50 years and trend in next 20 years in China[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2012, 29(1): 1-10.
[3] 曲迎乐, 高晓清, 陈文, 等. 近50年来我国东、西部地面气温和降水变化对比的初步分析[J]. 高原气象, 2008, 27(3): 524-529.
[QU Y L, GAO X Q, CHEN W, et al.Comparison of surface air temperatures and precipitation in eastern and western China during 1951-2003. Plateau Meteorology, 2008, 27(3): 524-529. ]
[4] 吴绍洪, 罗勇, 王浩, 等. 中国气候变化影响与适应: 态势和展望[J]. 科学通报, 2016, 61(10): 1042-1054.
[WU S H, LUO Y, WANG H, et al.Climate change impacts and adaptation in China: Current situation and future prospect. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2016, 61(10): 1042-1054. ]
[5] 慈龙骏, 杨晓晖, 陈仲新. 未来气候变化对中国荒漠化的潜在影响[J]. 地学前缘, 2002, 9(2): 287-294.
[CI L J, YANG X H, CHEN Z X.The potential impacts of climate change scenarios on desertification in China. Earth Science Frontiers, 2002, 9(2): 287-294. ]
[6] LIU S N, ZHOU T, WEI L Y, et al.The spatial distribution of forest carbon sinks and sources in China[J]. Science Bulletin, 2012, 57(14): 1699-1707.
[7] INOUYE D W.Effects of climate change on phenology, frost damage, and floral abundance of montane wildflowers[J]. Ecology, 2008, 89(2): 353-362.
[8] 林纾, 王毅荣. 中国黄土高原地区降水时空演变[J]. 中国沙漠, 2007, 27(3): 502-508.
[LIN S, WANG Y R.Spatial-temporal evolution of precipitation in China Loess Plateau. Journal of Desert Research, 2007, 27(3): 502-508. ]
[9] 王阿如娜, 史兴民. 近52年黄土高原气温与热量资源时空变化[J]. 江西农业学报, 2015, 27(10): 11-17.
[WANG A R, SHI X M.Temporal and spatial variations of air temperature and thermal resources in Loess Plateau in last 52 years. Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi, 2015, 27(10): 11-17. ]
[10] 晏利斌. 1961—2014年黄土高原气温和降水变化趋势[J]. 地球环境学报, 2015, 6(5): 276-282.
[YAN L B.Characteristics of temperature and precipitation on the Loess Plateau from 1961 to 2014. Journal of Earth Environment, 2015, 6(5): 276-282. ]
[11] 周晓红, 赵景波. 黄土高原气候变化与植被恢复[J]. 干旱区研究, 2005, 22(1): 116-119.
[ZHOU X H, ZHAO J B.Climate change and vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau. Arid Zone Research, 2005, 22(1): 116-119. ]
[12] 李志, 郑粉莉, 刘文兆. 1961—2007年黄土高原极端降水事件的时空变化分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(2): 291-299.
[LI Z, ZHENG F L, LIU W Z.Analyzing the spatial-temporal changes of extreme precipitation events in the Loess Plateau from 1961 to 2007. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(2): 291-299. ]
[13] 宋玉芝, 王连喜, 李剑萍. 气候变化对黄土高原马铃薯生产的影响[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2009, 37(3): 1018-1019.
[SONG Y Z, WANG L X, LI J P.Influence of climate change on potato production in the Loess Plateau. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2009, 37(3): 1018-1019. ]
[14] 范丽军. 统计降尺度方法的研究及其对中国未来区域气候情景的预估 [D]. 北京: 中国科学院大气物理研究所, 2006.
[FAN L J.Statistical Downscaling of Local and Regional Climate Scenarios over China. Beijing: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, 2006. ]
[15] 陈丽娟, 李维京, 张培群, 等. 降尺度技术在月降水预报中的应用[J]. 应用气象学报, 2003, 14(6): 648-655.
[CHEN L J, LI W J, ZHANG P Q, et al.Application of a new downscaling model to monthly precipitation forecast. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2003, 14(6): 648-655. ]
[16] DOSIO A, PANITZ H J, SCHUBERT-FRISIUS M, et al.Dynamical downscaling of CMIP5 global circulation models over CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM: Evaluation over the present climate and analysis of the added value[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2014, 44(9/10): 2637-2661.
[17] XU J W, GAO Y H, CHEN D L, et al.Evaluation of global climate models for downscaling applications centred over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2016, 37(2): 657-671.
[18] TIMM O E, GIAMBELLUCA T W, DIAZ H F.Statistical downscaling of rainfall changes in Hawai‘i based on the CMIP5 global model projections[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2014, 120(1): 92-112.
[19] MOSIER T M, HILL D F, SHARP K V.30-Arcsecond monthly climate surfaces with global land coverage[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2013, 34(7): 2175-2188.
[20] 王利娜, 朱清科, 仝小林, 等. 黄土高原近50年降水量时空变化特征分析[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2016, 34(3): 206-212.
[WANG L N, ZHU Q K, TONG X L, et al.Characteristic analysis of temporal and spatial variation of precipitation during recent 50 years in Loess Plateau. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2016, 34(3): 206-212. ]
[21] 蔡新玲, 王繁强, 吴素良. 陕北黄土高原近42年气候变化分析[J]. 气象科技, 2007, 35(1): 45-48.
[CAI X L, WANG F Q, WU S L.Analysis of climate change in northern Shaanxi Plateau in recent 42 years. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2007, 35(1): 45-48. ]
[22] 杨建伟. 黄土高原常见树种的耗水规律及水分利用特征的研究 [D]. 杨凌: 西北农林科技大学, 2003.
[YANG J W.Study on Water Consumption Properties and Water Use Efficiency of Hippophae rhamnoides L., Pinus tabulaeformis, Robinia pseudoacacia L., Populus simonii in Loess Plateau. Yangling: Northwest Sci-tech University of Agriculture and Forest, 2003. ]
[23] MAURER E P, WOOD A W, ADAM J C, et al.A long-term hydrologically based dataset of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States[J]. Journal of Climate, 2002, 15(22): 3237-3251.
[24] LIANG N, BRADLEY R S.Snow occurrence changes over the central and eastern United States under future warming scenarios[J]. Scientific Reports, 2015, 5: 17073. doi: 10.1038/srep17073.
[25] WOOD A W, MAURER E P, KUMAR A, et al.Long-range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2002, 107(D20): 4429. doi: 10.1029/2001JD000659.
[26] 陈中平, 徐强. Mann-Kendall检验法分析降水量时程变化特征[J]. 科技通报, 2016, 32(6): 47-50.
[CHEN Z P, XU Q.Analysis of precipitation characteristics in Jinhua by Mann-Kendall test method. Bulletin of Science and Technology, 2016, 32(6): 47-50. ]
[27] 易湘生, 尹衍雨, 李国胜, 等. 青海三江源地区近50年来的气温变化[J]. 地理学报, 2011, 66(11): 1451-1465.
[YI X S, YIN Y Y, LI G S, et al.Temperature variation in recent 50 years in the Three-River Headwaters Region of Qinghai Province. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(11): 1451-1465. ]
[28] 魏凤英, 曹鸿兴. 中国、北半球和全球的气温突变分析及其趋势预测研究[J]. 大气科学, 1995, 19(2): 140-148.
[WEI F Y, CAO H X.Detection of abrupt changes and trend prediction of the air temperature in China, the northern hemisphere and the globe. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 1995, 19(2): 140-148. ]
[29] 顾朝军, 穆兴民, 高鹏, 等. 1961—2014年黄土高原地区降水和气温时间变化特征研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2017(3): 136-143.
[GU C J, MU X M, GAO P, et al. Characteristics of temporal variation in precipitation and temperature in the Loess Plateau from 1961 to 2014. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2017(3): 136-143. ]
[30] 李志, 赵西宁. 1961—2009年黄土高原气象要素的时空变化分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013, 28(2): 287-299.
[LI Z, ZHAO X N.Spatiotemporal analysis of meteorological elements on the Loess Plateau during 1961-2009. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013, 28(2): 287-299. ]
[31] ATTA-UR-RAHMAN, DAWOOD M.Spatio-statistical analysis of temperature fluctuation using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope approach[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2017, 48: 783-797.
[32] LI Z, LIU W Z, ZHENG F L. Spatiotemporal characteristics of reference evapotranspiration during 1961-2009 and its projected changes during 2011-2099 on the Loess Plateau of China[J]. Agricultural & Forest Meteorology, 2012, s 154-155(6): 147-155.
[33] LI Z, ZHENG F L, LIU W Z, et al.Spatial distribution and temporal trends of extreme temperature and precipitation events on the Loess Plateau of China during 1961-2007[J]. Quaternary International, 2010, 226(1/2): 92-100.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 41601058;Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, No. 2452017183;China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major Project), No. GYHY201506001-3;West Light Foundation of CAS, No. XAB2015B07.