Threshold Analysis of Urbanization with the Constraint of &#x0201c;Three Red Lines&#x0201d; on Water Resources Management: A Case Study of Zhangye City

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.20161408

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JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (2) : 287-301. DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20161408

Threshold Analysis of Urbanization with the Constraint of “Three Red Lines” on Water Resources Management: A Case Study of Zhangye City

FENG Hao-yuan, SHI Pei-ji, ZHOU Wen-xia, CHEN Jia-yin, ZHANG Xue-bin

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Abstract

The relationship between the water resources and urbanization is a hot spot in water science research. There is a complex intertwined relationship between water resources and urbanization. This paper selects a typical city in arid region, Zhangye City, as the research subject and takes the strictest water resources management system as constraint condition to analyze the influence of the most significant management system of the water resources on the process of urbanization. Based on the constraint on water resources, it brings in water-saving quantity and grey water footprint to improve the double-factor method for calculating water resources carrying capacity based on water quantity and water quality. A model for calculating the threshold of the urbanization level with the constraint of “Three Red Lines” on water resources management is established. Meanwhile, the paper predicates the urbanization level thresholds of Zhangye City in 2020 and 2030 via scenario simulation and analyzes the historical data of urban development, water resources and water utilization in Zhangye City. The results show as follows. Firstly, the available water resources in Zhangye City is 23.02×10⁸ m³ by 2030 in total under the red lines of water resources development and utilization, which is basically the same as the current situation. In current situation of water resources utilization, the water carrying capacity is difficult to support the water demand in the process of urbanization and economic growth. Secondly, when strictly following the red line control of the water quota standard, the shortage of water carrying capacity in Zhangye City is expected to be alleviated, and the water quantity carrying capacity can provide 331.91×10⁴ urban residents with living water by 2030. The increase in water carrying capacity is mainly due to the water saving in the agricultural sector. Thirdly, with the red line on water resources pollution, the upper limit of the water quality carrying capacity in Zhangye City is 62.47×10⁴ people by 2030, which is only 78% of the planned urban population. The carrying capacity of water quality becomes a strong constraint during the process of urbanization and the ammonia emissions in urban areas are the main factors. Lastly, with the constraint of “Three Red Lines” on water resources management, the upper limit of urbanization level in Zhangye City is 48.05% by 2030. In the future development, Zhangye City should put emphasis on strengthening the agricultural saving and sewage treatment to improve the carrying capacity of the water quantity and water quality.

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constraint of water resources / Three Red Lines / threshold of urbanization / Zhangye City

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FENG Hao-yuan, SHI Pei-ji, ZHOU Wen-xia, CHEN Jia-yin, ZHANG Xue-bin. Threshold Analysis of Urbanization with the Constraint of “Three Red Lines” on Water Resources Management: A Case Study of Zhangye City[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2018, 33(2): 287-301 https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20161408

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