Study on Spatiotemporal Patterns and Contribution Factors of China&#x02019;s Grain Output Increase at the County Level during 2003-2013

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.20160254

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JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (2) : 177-185. DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160254

Study on Spatiotemporal Patterns and Contribution Factors of China’s Grain Output Increase at the County Level during 2003-2013

SUN Tong^{1, 2}, FENG Zhi-ming^{1, 2}, YANG Yan-zhao^{1, 2}

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Abstract

China achieved ten-year consecutive grain production increase which had never appeared in history no matter in China or in the world during 2003-2013. Till 2015, twelve-year consecutive grain output increase has been achieved. The purpose of this paper is to detect the spatiotemporal patterns and the main investigated contributions of grain output increase at the county level during 2003-2013. Based on factor contribution analysis and GIS, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of grain output increase at the county level, taking use of planted area output and yield per unit area. The results showed that: 1) the grain output increase had appeared in more than 75% of the counties in China, most of these counties located in the major grain-producing regions in Northeast Plain and the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. At the scope of grain output increase accumulation, half of national grain output increase concentrated in the top 198 counties (which accounted for 8.49% of counties in China), and 80% of national grain output increase concentrated in the top 550 counties (which accounted for 23.60% of counties in China); 2) the polarization of grain output increase at the county level was significant: the counties in hysteretic growth and overspeed growth occupied 33.98% and 33.15% of counties respectively, in which the overspeed counties mostly concentrated in Songnen Plain, Sanjiang Plain, the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Jianghan Plain, Poyang Lake Plain, Loess Plateau, and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region; 3) as for most counties whose grain output increased during 2003-2013, the expansion of planted area and the promotion of yield per unit area were both important reasons. There are 893 counties where the former played more important role, mainly located in Northeast Plain, the west of Inner-Mongolia Plateau, Hexi Corridor, Jianghan Plain, Dongting Lake Plain and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. There are 877 counties where the latter played more important role, mainly located in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Loess Plateau, and the southeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In general, major grain-producing counties were big contributors to the ten-year consecutive grain output increase from 2003 to 2013. Fiscal support for major grain-producing counties was needed to keep the grain production capacity. Only in this way, the national grain security will be ensured.

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counties / grain output increase / LMDI

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SUN Tong, FENG Zhi-ming, YANG Yan-zhao. Study on Spatiotemporal Patterns and Contribution Factors of China’s Grain Output Increase at the County Level during 2003-2013[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2017, 32(2): 177-185 https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.20160254

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