An Agent-based Approach for Urban Encroachment on Cropland Dynamic Model and Simulation

doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.03.015

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JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES ›› 2014, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (3) : 516-527. DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.03.015

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An Agent-based Approach for Urban Encroachment on Cropland Dynamic Model and Simulation

XIAO Lin, TIAN Guang-jin, QIAO Zhi

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Abstract

Unlike traditional studies about the spatio-temporal characteristics and its evolution law of urban encroachment on cropland on landscape scale, this paper proposes agent-based Urban Encroachment on Cropland Dynamic Model (UECDM) from the micro-level, exploring in depth the mechanism and dynamics of urban encroachment on cropland from diverse perspectives, so as to bring forward sustainable development countermeasures for reconciling both balance. UECDM introduces viewshed analysis, which applies quantitative assessment results of the visual landscape to residential decision-making processes by simulating terrain and observation point. The model consists of cell automata layer of viewshed to fully characterize the various environmental elements along with their internal relations and agent layer containing the interactions among different kinds of agents, which takes account of human decision-making and self-organization of urban growth. It is applied to simulate and analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of Tianjin's urban encroachment on cropland and validation follows. The Kappa coefficient is up to 0.795 and based on four landscape indices, the average relative error of the simulation result is about 3.86%, both indicating a high credibility of this model. Analysis of the simulation and prediction results of different periods indicates that the spatial pattern of Tianjin's urban encroachment on cropland is mainly outward expansion of the "pie" type as well as "satellite towns" of the "jump" type, which makes it possible to provide decision support for future urban development planning and cropland protection.

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Tianjin / urban encroachment / multi-agent system / cropland occupation / viewshed analysis

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XIAO Lin, TIAN Guang-jin, QIAO Zhi. An Agent-based Approach for Urban Encroachment on Cropland Dynamic Model and Simulation[J]. JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES, 2014, 29(3): 516-527 https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.03.015

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