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2025 , Vol. 40 >Issue 8: 2215 - 2233

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20250813

其他研究论文

农业绿色发展对粮食生产能力变化的敏感度研究

  • 王敬斋 , 1, 2 ,
  • 田野 , 1 ,
  • 黄进 1 ,
  • 王晓平 2
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  • 1.三峡大学经济与管理学院，宜昌 443002
  • 2.广西民族师范学院管理学院，崇左 532200
田野（1968- ），男，湖北宜昌人，博士，教授，博士生导师，研究方向为区域可持续发展、农业农村经济发展。E-mail:

王敬斋（1981- ），男，河南洛阳人，博士研究生，教授，研究方向为农业绿色发展、乡村振兴。E-mail:

收稿日期: 2024-12-16

  修回日期: 2025-02-17

  网络出版日期: 2025-08-05

基金资助

国家社会科学基金项目(21BGL210)

湖北省社会科学基金重大项目(23ZD152)

收起

Research on the sensitivity of green agricultural development to the changes of grain production capacity

  • WANG Jing-zhai , 1, 2 ,
  • TIAN Ye , 1 ,
  • HUANG Jin 1 ,
  • WANG Xiao-ping 2
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  • 1. School of Economics and Management, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, Hubei, China
  • 2. School of Management, Guangxi Minzu Normal University, Chongzuo 532200, Guangxi, China

Received date: 2024-12-16

  Revised date: 2025-02-17

  Online published: 2025-08-05

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摘要

基于综合评价法和敏感度模型，以湖北省为例分析2010—2022年农业绿色发展水平对粮食生产能力变化的敏感度。研究发现：（1）湖北省农业绿色发展呈现“N”型变化特征，其中资源利用和产出水平得分平均值下降，环境保护得分平均值上升。（2）湖北省粮食生产经历了“递增—下降—高产—稳产”阶段，年均产量鄂中>鄂西>鄂东，粮食生产能力与农业绿色发展各维度之间存在不同的响应关系。（3）湖北省农业绿色发展对粮食生产能力变化的敏感性总体上先降后升，其中资源利用对粮食生产能力变化的敏感性持续下降，环境保护对粮食生产能力变化的敏感性持续上升，产出水平对粮食生产能力变化的敏感性先降后升，敏感区数量存在波动且具有明显的空间差异。应进一步提高农业资源利用效率，增强农业绿色发展保障粮食安全的能力，优化农业发展格局。

关键词： 农业绿色发展; 粮食生产能力; 敏感度; 粮食安全; 协调

本文引用格式

王敬斋 , 田野 , 黄进 , 王晓平 . 农业绿色发展对粮食生产能力变化的敏感度研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2025 , 40(8) : 2215 -2233 . DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20250813

Abstract

Based on the comprehensive evaluation method and sensitivity model, the sensitivity of green agricultural development level to the change of grain production capacity from 2010 to 2022 was analyzed with Hubei province as an example. The findings are as follows: (1) The green agricultural development in Hubei presented an "N-shaped" change pattern, that is, the average score of resource utilization and output level decreased and the average score of environmental protection increased. (2) The grain production in the province experienced the stage of "increasing-decreasing-high yield-stable yield", and the average annual output was Central Hubei>Western Hubei>Eastern Hubei. There were different response relationships between grain production capacity and various dimensions of green agricultural development. (3) On the whole, the sensitivity of green agricultural development in the province to the change of grain production capacity decreased first and then increased, the sensitivity of resource utilization to the change of grain production capacity continued to decrease, the sensitivity of environmental protection to the change of grain production capacity continued to increase, the sensitivity of output level to the change of grain production capacity decreased first and then increased, and the number of sensitive areas fluctuated with obvious spatial differences. We should further improve the utilization efficiency of agricultural resources, enhance the capacity of green agricultural development to ensure food security, and optimize the agricultural development pattern.

Key words： green agricultural development; grain production capacity; sensitivity; food security; coordination

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