EN中文

自然资源学报 >

2025 , Vol. 40 >Issue 8: 2177 - 2194

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20250811

其他研究论文

中国绿色发展与共同富裕协同演化及其驱动因素

  • 赵林 , 1, 2 ,
  • 张春霆 1 ,
  • 郭付友 1 ,
  • 吴殿廷 , 3
展开
  • 1.曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院，日照 276826
  • 2.曲阜师范大学黄河生态研究院，曲阜 273165
  • 3.北京师范大学地理科学学部，北京 100875
吴殿廷（1958- ），男，辽宁大连人，博士，教授，博士生导师，研究方向为区域经济学。E-mail:

赵林（1988- ），男，山东东平人，博士，副教授，硕士生导师，研究方向为福利经济与区域可持续发展。E-mail:

收稿日期: 2024-09-02

  修回日期: 2025-02-06

  网络出版日期: 2025-08-05

基金资助

山东省高等学校青创团队计划项目(2023RW048)

山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2022MD104)

山东省泰山学者青年专家计划(tsqn202306183)

收起

Coordinated evolution and driving factors of green development and common prosperity in China

  • ZHAO Lin , 1, 2 ,
  • ZHANG Chun-ting 1 ,
  • GUO Fu-you 1 ,
  • WU Dian-ting , 3
Expand
  • 1. School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276826, Shandong, China
  • 2. Institute of Yellow River Ecology, Qufu Normal University, Qufu 273165, Shandong, China
  • 3. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received date: 2024-09-02

  Revised date: 2025-02-06

  Online published: 2025-08-05

Fold

摘要

推进绿色发展与共同富裕协同共赢是建设中国式现代化的客观要求。在厘清绿色发展与共同富裕协同演化机理基础上，采用哈肯模型对两者协同关系定量测度并刻画时空格局特征，最后借助随机森林模型识别协同演化的驱动因素。结果表明：（1）2011—2022年中国绿色发展效率与共同富裕指数波动增长，绿色发展水平逐渐演变为西北—东南递减的梯度分异格局，北京和长三角地区共同富裕水平处于领先地位。（2）研究期内二者协同水平显著攀升，空间层面形成“东强西弱”格局，区域间差异持续缩小，各地区协同演化类型阶段性向好发展。（3）经济基础、产业结构、环境规制、金融发展与数字经济能够较稳定地促进两者良性互动，政府调控的驱动作用先升后降。研究成果可为国家协同推进经济社会全面绿色转型和共同富裕提供参考借鉴。

关键词： 绿色发展; 共同富裕; 中国式现代化; 哈肯模型; 随机森林模型

本文引用格式

赵林 , 张春霆 , 郭付友 , 吴殿廷 . 中国绿色发展与共同富裕协同演化及其驱动因素[J]. 自然资源学报, 2025 , 40(8) : 2177 -2194 . DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20250811

Abstract

Advancing the coordinated and mutually beneficial development of green development and common prosperity is an objective requirement for constructing modernization with Chinese characteristics. Based on clarifying the mechanisms of the coordinated evolution, this study employs the Haken model to quantitatively measure the relationship between green development and common prosperity and characterize the spatial and temporal patterns of the synergistic relationship between the two. Finally, the random forest model is used to analyze the driving factors affecting their coordinated evolution. The results indicate that: (1) From 2011 to 2022, China's green development efficiency and common prosperity index showed a fluctuating growth. The national green development has progressed to form a distinct northwest to southeast gradient differentiation pattern, with the Beijing and the Yangtze River Delta leading in advancing common prosperity. (2) During the study period, the level of synergy between green development and common prosperity rose significantly, presenting a spatial pattern of "stronger in the east and weaker in the west", a continuous narrowing of regional differences, and the type of synergistic evolution in each region showing phased positive development. (3) The economic foundation, industrial structure, environmental regulation, financial development and digital economy can more stably promote the benign synergy and interaction between green development and common prosperity, while the driving role of government regulation first rises and then falls. The results of the study can provide a reference for China's collaborative promotion of comprehensive economic and social green transformation and common prosperity.

Key words： green development; common prosperity; Chinese-style modernization; Haken model; random forest model

参考文献

原文顺序 | 文献年度倒序 | 文中引用次数倒序
[1]
刘伟, 范欣. 以高质量发展实现中国式现代化推进中华民族伟大复兴不可逆转的历史进程. 管理世界, 2023, 39(4): 1-16.

[LIU W, FAN X. To achieve the Chinese path to modernization with high-quality development and to advance the irreversible historical process of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Journal of Management World, 2023, 39(4): 1-16.]

[2]
李旭辉, 王经伟. 共同富裕目标下中国城乡建设绿色发展的区域差距及影响因素. 自然资源学报, 2023, 38(2): 419-441.

DOI

[LI X H, WANG J W. The regional gap and its influencing factors of green development of urban and rural construction in China under the goal of common prosperity. Journal of Natural Resources, 2023, 38(2): 419-441.]

[3]
LIU Y Z, YANG R J, SUN M Y, et al. Regional sustainable development strategy based on the coordination between ecology and economy: A case study of Sichuan province, China. Ecological Indicators, 2022, 134: 108445, Doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108445.

[4]
郑石明, 邹克, 李红霞. 绿色发展促进共同富裕: 理论阐释与实证研究. 政治学研究, 2022, (2): 52-65, 168-169.

[ZHENG S M, ZOU K, LI H X. Promotion of common prosperity with green development: Theoretical explanation and empirical research. CASS Journal of Political Science, 2022, (2): 52-65, 168-169.]

[5]
李汝资, 陈巧娟, 高雄愿, 等. 长江经济带城市绿色经济效率梯度转换规律及其影响因素. 自然资源学报, 2024, 39(1): 125-139.

DOI

[LI R Z, CHEN Q J, GAO X Y, et al. Gradient transformation and influencing factors of urban green economy efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Journal of Natural Resources, 2024, 39(1): 125-139.]

[6]
刘华军, 吴倩敏. 新时代十年中国绿色发展之路. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2024, 34(3): 102-111.

[LIU H J, WU Q M. China's path to green development in the decade of the New Era. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2024, 34(3): 102-111.]

[7]
尹向飞. 新框架核算下中国省级绿色GDP增长时空演变及驱动. 经济地理, 2021, 41(1): 49-57, 180.

DOI

[YIN X F. The spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of the provincial green GDP growth in China based on a new research framework. Economic Geography, 2021, 41(1): 49-57, 180.]

[8]
邓毛颖, 韦晓莉, 张国俊. 中国新型城镇化与绿色发展协调演进关系研究. 自然资源学报, 2024, 39(7): 1682-1697.

DOI

[DENG M Y, WEI X L, ZHANG G J. Research on the coordinated evaluation relationship between new urbanization and green development in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2024, 39(7): 1682-1697.]

[9]
YANG T, ZHOU K L, ZHANG C. Spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of green development efficiency in China's urban agglomerations. Sustainable Cities and Society, 2022, 85: 104069, Doi: 10.1016/j.scs.2022.104069.

[10]
周亮, 车磊, 周成虎. 中国城市绿色发展效率时空演变特征及影响因素. 地理学报, 2019, 74(10): 2027-2044.

DOI

[ZHOU L, CHE L, ZHOU C H. Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of urban green development efficiency in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(10): 2027-2044.]

DOI

[11]
袁华锡, 刘耀彬, 封亦代. 金融集聚如何影响绿色发展效率? 基于时空双固定的SPDM与PTR模型的实证分析. 中国管理科学, 2019, 27(11): 61-75.

[YUAN H X, LIU Y B, FENG Y D. How does financial agglomeration affect green development efficiency? Empirical analysis of SPDM and PTR models considering spatio-temporal double fixation. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2019, 27(11): 61-75.]

[12]
车磊, 白永平, 周亮, 等. 中国绿色发展效率的空间特征及溢出分析. 地理科学, 2018, 38(11): 1788-1798.

DOI

[CHE L, BAI Y P, ZHOU L, et al. Spatial pattern and spillover effects of green development efficiency in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018, 38(11): 1788-1798.]

DOI

[13]
方创琳. 青藏高原城镇化发展的特殊思路与绿色发展路径. 地理学报, 2022, 77(8): 1907-1919.

DOI

[FANG C L. Special thinking and green development path of urbanization in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(8): 1907-1919.]

DOI

[14]
邓宗兵, 肖沁霖, 王炬, 等. 中国数字经济与绿色发展耦合协调的时空特征及驱动机制. 地理学报, 2024, 79(4): 971-990.

DOI

[DENG Z B, XIAO Q L, WANG J, et al. Spatio-temporal characteristics and driving mechanism of the coupling coordination between digital economy and green development in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2024, 79(4): 971-990.]

DOI

[15]
沈满洪. 生态文明视角下的共同富裕观. 治理研究, 2021, 37(5): 5-13, 2.

[SHEN M H. The view of common prosperity from the perspective of ecological civilization. Governance Studies, 2021, 37(5): 5-13, 2.]

[16]
张梦玲, 鲍海君. 农业文化遗产项目设立的共同富裕效应: 基于浙江省的一项准自然实验. 自然资源学报, 2024, 39(11): 2639-2656.

DOI

[ZHANG M L, BAO H J. The common prosperity effects of the establishment of agricultural heritage projects: Based on a quasi-natural experiment in Zhejiang province. Journal of Natural Resources, 2024, 39(11): 2639-2656.]

[17]
李俊蓉, 冯惠敏, 林荣日, 等. 省域新型城镇化与共同富裕耦合协调水平的时空特征及其影响因素. 经济地理, 2024, 44(5): 86-95.

DOI

[LI J R, FENG H M, LIN R R, et al. Evolution and influencing factors of coupling coordination between new-type urbanization and common prosperity in China. Economic Geography, 2024, 44(5): 86-95.]

DOI

[18]
ZHAO X C, LONG L C, YIN S. Regional common prosperity level and its spatial relationship with carbon emission intensity in China. Scientific Reports, 2023, 13(1): 17035, Doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-44408-9.

[19]
邹伟勇, 许玲丽. 中国共同富裕的测度、区域差异及动态演化. 地理科学, 2024, 44(1): 71-81.

DOI

[ZOU W Y, XU L L. Regional differences and dynamic evolution of common prosperity in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2024, 44(1): 71-81.]

DOI

[20]
王金伟, 王启翔, 冯凌. 旅游业发展对共同富裕的直接影响及空间溢出效应. 地理学报, 2024, 79(4): 1045-1067.

DOI

[WANG J W, WANG Q X, FENG L. Direct and spillover effects of tourism development on common prosperity. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2024, 79(4): 1045-1067.]

DOI

[21]
刘格格, 周玉玺, 葛颜祥. 生态补偿何以促进生态保护红线区农户共同富裕?. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2024, 34(4): 197-209.

[LIU G G, ZHOU Y X, GE Y X. How does ecological compensation promote the common prosperity of farmers in the ecological protection red line areas?. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2024, 34(4): 197-209.]

[22]
杜敏哲, 廖丽萍. 低碳转型能否促进共同富裕: 来自低碳城市试点的证据. 经济学动态, 2024, (4): 33-48.

[DU M Z, LIAO L P. Can low-carbon transition promote common prosperity: Evidence from low-carbon city pilots. Economic Perspectives, 2024, (4): 33-48.]

[23]
庄贵阳, 王思博, 窦晓铭. 绿色共富视角下生态产品价值实现问题的再认识. 中国软科学, 2023, (9): 53-63.

[ZHUANG G Y, WANG S B, DOU X M. Reflection on the value realization of ecological products from the perspective of green common prosperity. China Soft Science, 2023, (9): 53-63.]

[24]
郎宇, 王桂霞. 生态资源价值化助推乡村振兴的逻辑机理与突破路径. 自然资源学报, 2024, 39(1): 29-48.

DOI

[LANG Y, WANG G X. The logical mechanism and breakthrough path for the activation of ecological resources value to promote rural revitalization. Journal of Natural Resources, 2024, 39(1): 29-48.]

DOI

[25]
朱竑, 陈晓亮, 尹铎. 从“绿水青山”到“金山银山”: 欠发达地区乡村生态产品价值实现的阶段、路径与制度研究. 管理世界, 2023, 39(8): 74-91.

[ZHU H, CHEN X L, YIN D. Transforming "green water and green mountains" into "golden mountains and silver mountains": Research on the stage, path and system of the value realization of rural ecological products in underdeveloped areas. Journal of Management World, 2023, 39(8): 74-91.]

[26]
LI H S, BROWNING M H E M, RIGOLON A, et al. Beyond "bluespace" and "greenspace": A narrative review of possible health benefits from exposure to other natural landscapes. Science of the Total Environment, 2023, 856: 159292, Doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159292.

[27]
韩晶, 刘紫瑶. 生态财富赋能共同富裕的作用机制、现实挑战与实践路径. 经济纵横, 2024, (4): 108-116.

[HAN J, LIU Z Y. Mechanism, challenges, and paths of ecological wealth empowering common prosperity. Economic Review Journal, 2024, (4): 108-116.]

[28]
张德涛, 张景静. 共同富裕观下的财富与绿色发展: 效应检验与机制分析. 软科学, 2023, 37(6): 25-31, 55.

[ZHANG D T, ZHANG J J. Wealth and green development under common prosperity concept. Soft Science, 2023, 37(6): 25-31, 55.]

[29]
SONG Y, ZHANG M, ZHOU M. Study on the decoupling relationship between CO2 emissions and economic development based on two-dimensional decoupling theory: A case between China and the United States. Ecological Indicators, 2019, 102: 230-236.

[30]
张康洁, 于法稳. 绿色发展与共同富裕协同推进: 理论、路径与保障. 企业经济, 2021, 40(12): 19-26.

[ZHANG K J, YU F W. Coordinated promotion of green development and common prosperity: Theory, path and guarantee. Enterprise Economy, 2021, 40(12): 19-26.]

[31]
XU C G, LI X H. Achieving common prosperity and green development through utilizing natural resources. Resources Policy, 2023, 85: 103881, Doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103881.

[32]
赵林, 张春霆, 高晓彤, 等. 黄河流域绿色发展与共同富裕耦合协调水平变化及其影响因素. 经济地理, 2024, 44(8): 57-67.

DOI

[ZHAO L, ZHANG C T, GAO X T, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of the coupling coordination level between green development and common prosperity in the Yellow River Basin. Economic Geography, 2024, 44(8): 57-67.]

DOI

[33]
李俊明, 周佳卉, 李杰, 等. 基于贝叶斯统计的黄河流域生态文明与共同富裕的时空协同演进研究. 地球信息科学学报, 2023, 25(4): 766-782.

DOI

[LI J M, ZHOU J H, LI J, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution and synergy of ecological civilization and common prosperity in the Yellow River Basin based on Bayesian statistics. Journal of Geo-Information Science, 2023, 25(4): 766-782.]

[34]
余振. 结构、机会与能动性: 后发区域绿色路径发展. 地理研究, 2024, 43(1): 1-16.

DOI

[YU Z. Structure, opportunity, and agency: Green path development in latecomer regions. Geographical Research, 2024, 43(1): 1-16.]

[35]
刘耀彬. 中国绿色发展效率与政策工具选择. 北京: 社会科学文献出版社, 2021: 44-50.

[LIU Y B. China's Green Development Efficiency and Policy Tool Selection. Beijing: Social Sciences Academic Press, 2021: 44-50.]

[36]
LI S S, LIU Y B, ELAHI E, et al. A new type of urbanization policy and transition of low-carbon society: A "local- neighborhood" perspective. Land Use Policy, 2023, 131: 106709, Doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106709.

[37]
TONE K, TSUTSUI M. An epsilon-based measure of efficiency in DEA: A third pole of technical efficiency. European Journal of Operational Research, 2010, 207(3): 1554-1563.

[38]
ZHENG H Z, WU Y J, HE H M, et al. Urbanization and urban energy eco-efficiency: A meta-frontier super EBM analysis based on 271 cities of China. Sustainable Cities and Society, 2024, 101: 105089, Doi: 10.1016/j.scs.2023.105089.

[39]
HAKEN H. Synergetics:An Introduction. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1983: 120-127.

[40]
王松茂, 牛金兰. 山东省旅游经济与城市生态韧性协同演化研究. 地理学报, 2023, 78(10): 2591-2608.

DOI

[WANG S M, NIU J L. Co-evolution of tourism economy and urban ecological resilience in Shandong province. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2023, 78(10): 2591-2608.]

DOI

[41]
DAGUM C. A new approach to the decomposition of the Gini income inequality ratio. Empirical Economics, 1997, 22(4): 515-531.

[42]
BREIMAN L. Random forests. Machine Learning, 2001, 45(1): 5-32.

[43]
陈伟泽, 刘哲希, 郭俊杰. 遏制“脱实向虚”的稳杠杆效应: 机制分析与效果评估. 管理世界, 2023, 39(12): 54-72.

[CHEN W Z, LIU Z X, GUO J J. Stabilizing the leverage by containing bubblization: Mechanism analysis and quantitative assessment. Journal of Management World, 2023, 39(12): 54-72.]

Options
文章导航

/

〈 〉