运用系统动力学的方法,研究了城市水资源供需系统的优化分析。系统中主要包括了人口、工业生产、水资源供应和污染等4个状态变量,其中总可供水量是系统的控制变量;得出水价和水污染整治投资比例是两个关键因素,系统运行结果表明,只有二者相互协调,共同发挥作用,才能保证城市水资源的可持续利用,缺一不可。论文以长春市为例,分析了城市水资源供需系统的动态变化,并提出了解决水资源短缺以及水体污染的控制方案。

This paper uses system dynamics to analyse the structure of water supply and demand system of urban water resources.The supply and demand system contains four level variables,in-cluding population(POP),industrial output (IO),the total supply of water resources(TWQ)and the total quantity of polluted water resources(PWQ).Among them,the TWQ is the dominant one,which is determined by two rate variables,i.e.,the water supply rate and the polluted water pro-duced rate.In the system,water price and the investment for polluted water treatment are the key assistant variables.The functions of these two assistant factors are fully considered.And we can conclude from the outcome of the system that sustainable utilization of urban water resources can be realized if the two factors harmonize with each other.Taking Changchun City as an example,which was one of the cities that water supply was the main factors constraining her development,and water pollution was serious,the paper analyses supply and demand dynamic system of urban water resources,and introduces the scenario to solve these problems.