论文以中国各省份、各地区历年粮食单产为基本资料,采用统计方法,以风险分析技术为核心,定义粮食产量风险评价指标。在此基础上采用迭代自组织动态聚类分析方法分别对全国地区级和省级粮食生产单元进行了减产风险要素分区和综合风险指数分区,分区的结果反映了粮食生产风险水平的区域分异与各地区孕灾环境、致灾因子性质和生产力水平有密切联系。

Based on risk analysis theory,we make use of ISODATA method to divide China into different risk areas at the prefectural and provincial levels with risk-factor division index and synthetic division index respectively.The results show that the difference in risk levels in China relates closely to local disaster induced environment,disaster factors and productivity.The divi-sion results could serve as reference on resources utility,grain yield allocation and risk decision.